Arabian sea/Implied Hormuz way down on the daily and the moving average going down as well. There are like ~30 tankers sitting around/turning around in the arabian sea empty. BAM still down too. Haven't had a chance to update Malacca yet will update in a minute. Singapore up a lot on the daily.

Edit: updated Malacca again China is buying what it used to at a minimum.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

none added for near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. That still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea as the Yanbu/East/West pipeline is all going north to suez.

Ships: ECO WEST COAST,MARLIN LAGOS,VOZROZHDENIYE,HANUMAN

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products. Also added how much of that malacca traffic is going to china.

Ships:HE PING HAI,SAPHIRE SHINE,ALMI HERCULES,NEW COROLLA,PHOENIX VANTAGE,C.GLORY,AGIOS FANOURIOS I,UNIVESAL PARTNER,FLAVIN,FRONT RAUMA,HABARI,VIVE UT VIVAS,FRONT EMPIRE,FPMC C NOBLE

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Oct 11 alone: 6 vessels struck (5 tankers + 1 container ship) in/around Hormuz, including multiple “time-late” reports issued the following day. Three were outbound tankers hit by unknown projectiles; one inbound container ship was also hit. A separate tanker was hit by a drone near Sohar anchorage, Oman.

https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/security/ukmto-issues-four-hormuz-attack-reports-iran-claims-adnoc-tanker-strike

October total (through ~Oct 12–13): At least 18 UKMTO attack reports on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding region.

CENTCOM October reports only 1 ADNOC strike + 3 carriers “stalled and flagged” for “mechanical failures” or “suspicious activity.”

CENTCOM’s recent public releases (Oct 5 and Oct 10–11) focus almost exclusively on its own blockade enforcement: 4 commercial vessels disabled, 135 turned around, and 10 IRGC-linked tankers destroyed since the blockade resumed July 14. The Oct 10 strike that disabled the Panama-flagged bulk carrier Ocean Molica (aka Arika Sun) in the Gulf of Oman is highlighted, but there is no matching public tally of the volume of “unknown projectile” or Iranian-claimed strikes on commercial tankers.

https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4623817/us-forces-disable-cargo-vessel-attempting-to-violate-blockade/

Many UKMTO reports are explicitly labeled “time-late” and these incidents are reported hours or days after they occurred , so real-time public counts lag and can understate the pace.

In short, UKMTO (Royal Navy) and maritime outlets are logging a sustained high tempo of strikes with what I read was a minimum 12 earlier in the week plus a sharp cluster of 6 on Oct 11 and an October total of at least 18 . while CENTCOM’s public statements on the other hand prioritize its blockade metrics and specific U.S. strikes rather than a comprehensive public count of the tanker attacks. The gap is driven by delayed reporting, limited public attribution, and differing mission emphases.

https://gcaptain.com/new-reports-reveal-five-more-ships-hit-near-hormuz/

The Conclusion is still the same: There is and never will be accurate reporting on the Strait of Hormuz. Don’t even get me started on tracker data and shitty satellite map tracking, lol we have tried so hard, and our second hand data is not accurate.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-energy-strikes-trump-ceasefire-6fdef6ff4d033b379c74e1d62183d078

https://www.foxnews.com/world/zelenskyy-blasts-putin-defying-trumps-ceasefire-push-sends-pointed-message-white-house

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/oil-prices-trump-energy-ceasefire-fails-rcna603031

Governments are tapping their emergency oil faster than ever, and the room to keep doing so is shrinking.

On Oct. 7, member governments of the International Energy Agency backed speeding up the oil stock releases they pledged under the agency’s March 2026 Collective Action, aiming to finish them as soon as possible. They also agreed to prioritize diesel, given how tight that market has become. According to Reuters, JPMorgan analysts read the move as an acceleration of barrels already promised, not a fresh intervention.

The March action was historic on its own. In response to the Iran war and the disruption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, IEA members agreed to make 400 million barrels of oil available to the market. It was only the sixth collective action since the agency’s founding in 1974, and by far the largest.

Seven months later, the buffer is visibly thinner. IEA governments still hold roughly 1.1 billion barrels of publicly held emergency stocks, including more than 200 million barrels of diesel, the agency says. In March, that figure was more than 1.2 billion barrels. Including company inventories, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser estimated this week that more than 1 billion barrels have been pulled from stockpiles worldwide.

Read more [paywall removed for Redditors]: https://fortune.com/2026/10/12/global-emergency-oil-stocks-iea-strategic-petroleum-reserve-gao/?utm_source=reddit/

BREAKING:
The diesel fuel Russia is now exporting to the United States at U.S. President Trump's request may have originated in Iran, as Russian oil refineries are largely unable to produce diesel because of Ukrainian attacks.

Russia has been importing most of the diesel it needs from Iran. In September, thousands of Iranian tanker trucks were spotted in various regions of Russia, including Ryazan, carrying Iranian diesel.

Russia may be buying Iranian diesel and reselling it to the United States. If so, Trump's attempt to lower U.S. energy prices and deceive American voters is putting money into the hands of Russia and Iran's Islamic regime.

The spike in oil prices since the Iran war began this year has attracted more thieves, and they are increasingly professional criminals.

While oil theft has long been a part of the industry, the problem has become prevalent enough for the Dallas Fed to ask about in its quarterly surveys.

The latest one showed that nearly half of firms that are primarily focused on the Permian Basin said their operations have been impacted by theft in oilfields. By contrast, 86% of firms operating mostly outside the Permian said they were not impacted.

The Permian is the heart of the oil patch and the epicenter of the shale revolution that has transformed the U.S. into an energy superpower.

It stretches across the vast expanses of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico—and is dotted with drilling rigs, pipelines, trucks, and other infrastructure necessities.

That’s made the Permian a target-rich environment. And now that U.S. oil prices have been hovering around $100 a barrel lately, criminals can’t resist the payoff.

Read more [paywall removed for Redditors]: https://fortune.com/2026/10/11/oil-theft-wti-crude-prices-permian-basin-targeted-organized-heists/?utm_source=reddit/

On October 11th, a large crude oil tanker was said to have attempted to leave the Hormuz Strait when it detonated a naval mine and then exploded and caught fire.

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Inside-The-Secret-Russian-Iranian-Military-Energy-Pipeline-Laundering-Machine.html

Strong Malaysia STS vibes here.

"An EU source tells Oilprice.com that Russian and Iranian crude is being blended into Kazakhstan's CPC Blend and shipped to Europe under an EU exemption. CPC flows surged 38.5%, while Kazakh oil production grew less than 2%."

Who could have possibly seen this coming ? (Bullish for oil for at least 2027 and 2028)

Probably will delete this later, but I need advice. I have two offers for when I graduate college as an engineer. One is from Exxon Mobil to live in (southwest) Wyoming. The other is from a smaller oil and gas company(not disclosing) to work at their corporate office in Houston. The salaries are very similar, and their benefits differ by a 1% 401k match (Exxon better) and an extra week of vacation (small company better).
The work at Exxon seems more appealing and interesting to me and I feel like I’d have more opportunities going there. However I have reserves about the work culture and if it really is as bad as people say it is. Plus the whole living in an isolated area like Wyoming. I know the other company probably has a better work culture, but I’m scared being there may hurt my future opportunities. Any advice is greatly appreciated

Arabian sea/Hormuz implied daily down quite a bit today. BAM is very low daily down and the moving average is lowest its been since I started tracking. Malacca and Singapore averages above pre war. China still getting lots of oil. There are a growing number of ships just sitting around in the Arabaian sea/turning around.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

DESH VIRAT added to the 10 Oct data as they popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. That still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea as the Yanbu/East/West pipeline is all going north to suez.

Ships: VOZROZHDENIYE,PORTOFINO

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products.

Ships: DHT SUNDARBANS,ENEOS ARROW,DUBAI BRILLIANCE,MARINE PEARL,SHUSHA,ANDROKLOS,AGISTRI,FRONT OTRA,ANTARCTICA,JANA,NISALAH,DHT ANTELOPE

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

A excellent analysis video from wgoshipping covering the flurry of videos and reports from the last few weeks. It covers the claimed strikes on the 2 oil tankers in the strait along with the smaller strikes outside of it. Including transit rates and estimated exports. With some speculation on its effect on oil prices.

I have some crude oil at home.

Two tankers were attacked on 11 October, one in the strait of Hormuz and the other at the Sohar anchorage offshore Oman, Indian ports, shipping and waterways minister Sarbananda Sonowal said.

The 149,997dwt Suezmax tanker Valtherawas hit by an unknown projectile, causing a fire on board, Sonowal said. The vessel was carrying crude from Basrah, Iraq, having sailed on 8 October, Vortexa data show.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) had earlier said that an outbound tanker transiting the strait of Hormuz had been struck by a projectile, causing damage to the vessel.

The 3,922dwt small oil products tanker Petro Dolphin was hit by a drone at the Sohar anchorage on 11 October, Sonowal said. Two Indian seafarers are missing, according to the minister.

UKMTO had earlier said that a tanker at the Sohar anchorage had been hit by an aerial drone.
"India reiterates the need for immediate de-escalation and a resolution to the ongoing conflict through dialogue and diplomacy," the Indian foreign ministry said following the two incidents. "Attacks on commercial vessels, seafarers and civilian infrastructure must cease. Freedom of navigation and the safe, unimpeded flow of maritime commerce through international waterways, in accordance with international law, must be upheld."

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) navy claimed "a supertanker" had struck a naval mine after sailing through the strait of Hormuz with its navigation systems switched off on Sunday. Footage of the incident did not clearly resemble a mine explosion, and the circumstances of the incident and the cause of the fire were unconfirmed at publishing time.

"All ships within the limits of the Strait of Hormuz that turn off their navigation and identification systems will be identified as hostile and will be dealt with severely and decisively," state news agency Isna said, quoting the IRGC Navy.

Isna claimed there were three incidents over the weekend of tankers transiting "unauthorized shipping lanes" colliding with naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, but none of the incidents has yet been independently confirmed.

Russia has just struck the CHP-5 power plant in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest combined heat and power plant, breaking the US energy ceasefire just hours after Trump announced it.

Zelensky confirms the strike, saying "Just now there was a strike on CHP-5 in the city of Kharkiv."

Trump announced today "Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!”