In late August, Tim Kennedy, a former US special forces soldier and mixed martial arts fighter with millions of social media followers, posted about discussing with his son “what being a man means and what sacrifice really looks like”.

It was, in hindsight, a hint of the secret mission he was about to undertake in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo for Erik Prince, the founder of Blackwater, a fellow Trump supporter and a notorious mercenary.

Kennedy, a 47-year-old father of four, has built a second career as a media personality and podcaster, holding forth on politics, fitness and masculinity on his popular YouTube channel. His deployment would take him from talking about his military past to the bloody reality of one of the world’s most protracted conflicts.

Prince’s contract through his company Vectus Global, said to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars, was to help the Congolese government recover revenues lost through smuggling and tax fraud in its mining industry. In reality, and perhaps inevitably, it has become an active military mission, backing the armed forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

They are battling for control of parts of the resource-rich east with rebels supported by neighbouring Rwanda. Conflict monitors have reported Prince-linked contractors doing drone and air-defence work alongside Congolese special forces.

The risks became clear on September 17, when a convoy carrying a team working for Prince and Congolese soldiers was ambushed in South Kivu. Kennedy was shot at least three times in the leg, according to Reuters.

About 20 people were killed or wounded. The dead were reported to include seven Congolese citizens and Justin Conaglen, a former New Zealand Special Air Service lance corporal who had taken leave without pay in March before formally leaving the military in August.

“Everybody who, for whatever reason — treason, stupidity, money — wants to weaken Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia is acting clearly against its own nation, sovereignty and security,” Tusk said. 

“Every patriot in Poland, in Europe, should today think how to effectively help Ukraine defend itself,” he added. 

The Trump administration is threatening to stop the procurement system that provides Ukraine with weapons in order to press Kyiv to halt its deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, according to officials in Europe.

The officials, who received calls from American officials on Saturday and Sunday or were briefed on them, said the US was lobbying European capitals and Kyiv in an attempt to end the attacks on Russian oil refineries. The White House declined to confirm or comment on the calls.

The US message, the officials added, included threats to cut off intelligence sharing and Purl — the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List mechanism for procuring US weapons for Ukraine.

“They are calling Kyiv . . . they are calling everyone [in Europe],” said an official who received a call from a US defence official.

Purl is a Nato-managed initiative through which Kyiv’s allies purchase US-made weapons that are then supplied to Ukraine. The US does not make a financial contribution to the fund. 

One person who said he was contacted by US officials was Pavlo Palisa, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s military adviser and former general of Ukraine’s 93rd mechanised brigade.

US President Donald Trump on Sunday surprised Kyiv and the Europeans his administration had sought to pressure, when he announced on social media that Ukraine and Russia had reached a ceasefire to halt attacks on each other’s energy infrastructure.

“Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said on Sunday evening that Trump’s announcement of an energy ceasefire was “good news for everyone — and it is important that it becomes reality”.

“Unfortunately, Ukrainian skies have been infested with Russian ‘shahed’ [drones] all day today,” he said. “There have been glide-bomb strikes and strikes on our energy infrastructure too. A power plant in Kharkiv was attacked this evening.

“Ukraine has proposed many de-escalatory steps. [Russian President Vladimir] Putin had one answer to all of them – ‘nyet’ [no], Zelenskyy added. “We do hope that he will finally say something to America, Ukraine, and the entire world that will lead to a real and dignified peace . . . and we expect Putin to follow through on what President Trump said.”

It was not immediately clear whether Russia had agreed to the deal.

The White House also declined to say whether Trump would heed Zelenskyy’s proposal to force Putin to accept a total ceasefire for 60 days so that Ukraine could hold elections.

The prime minister has revealed UK authorities told him there was ‘clear evidence’ that Moscow meddled in the referendum

President Trump called Saturday for Ukraine to replace President Volodymyr Zelensky with someone willing to make a deal with Russia to end the war.

Trump's attack on Zelensky came after the Ukrainian president criticized his diesel deal with Russia and signals the most serious crisis between the two leaders since their February 2025 meeting exploded in front of cameras.

Trump announced Friday he had reached a deal with Russia to lift sanctions to allow Russian diesel exports to the U.S. and the global energy market.

Zelensky, who was surprised by the deal made behind Ukraine's back, attacked the move and told Axios it was "not fair and not honest" and was a "sign of weakness" by Trump and a "birthday gift" to Putin.

A U.S. official told Axios later that Trump struck the diesel fuel deal after Zelensky ignored half a dozen U.S. requests to stop attacking Russian oil refineries.

Trump said Zelensky could have reached a deal with Russia many times "but chooses not to."

"I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal," Trump told reporters Saturday. "… And I think it's time for Ukraine to get a new president."

He said he asked Zelensky to stop attacking Russian oil refineries and claimed Zelensky's actions harmed American farmers.

"He better damn well stop," Trump said.

Kpler, one of the leading maritime and commodity tracking firms, published an interesting analysis on October 1 that challenges the assumption that reopening the Strait of Hormuz requires a political agreement with Iran.

According to Kpler, Middle Eastern crude export volumes, excluding Iran and including alternative routes, have recovered to approximately prewar levels. Shipping is adapting through escorted transits, alternative routes and other logistical measures despite continued hostilities.

Meanwhile, Kpler estimates that Iranian oil revenue could fall to zero by the end of 2026 if the US blockade remains in place.

The strategic implications are significant. Iran has relied on disrupting the Strait of Hormuz to exert economic pressure on the international community. But if regional oil exports can recover while Iranian exports remain blocked, Tehran could gradually lose much of that leverage.

Kpler isn't predicting an immediate reopening or an Iranian collapse. Refined petroleum products and LNG remain vulnerable, shipping costs are elevated, and Iran can still disrupt traffic.

Nevertheless, this raises an interesting question: Could the US maintain economic pressure on Iran indefinitely while the global oil market increasingly adapts to the blockade?

Source: https://cn.kpler.com/blog/hormuz-normalisation-no-longer-needs-to-wait-for-a-deal-08156

When U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner told Ukraine’s delegation on Oct. 9 that President Donald Trump was preparing to lift sanctions on Russian diesel exports, the Ukrainians struggled to believe what they were hearing, the Kyiv Independent reports.