BC Conservatives 44.7%, BC NDP to 37.2%, BC Greens 11.2%: Mainstreet Research poll

[u/Head_Crash]

https://voiceonline.com/bc-conservatives-44-7-bc-ndp-to-37-2-bc-greens-11-2-mainstreet-research-poll/

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[u/Independent-Lie-9967]

Calling this election was a poor decision. The NDP have a majority ... it was pointless. I think they will end up with a minority govt.

[u/VincentVanG → u/Independent-Lie-9967]

Ya NDP electing themselves into a green coalition is hilarious. Personally I'm for coalition governments.

[u/IvarTheBoned → u/VincentVanG]

Same, my biggest hope is that the Greens make support of the NDP conditional on passing electoral reform within the first 100 days.

[u/sfbriancl → u/IvarTheBoned]

This x 1000. Electoral reform has to come first. First past the post with all of the parties means someone gets elected with no consensus.

[u/Bogdanovist_Rebel → u/IvarTheBoned]

They’ve done it before and we are still here.

[u/IvarTheBoned → u/Bogdanovist_Rebel]

No, the "kingmaker" minority of a coalition has never conditionally supported the government by demanding electoral form in the first 100 days as a condition of that support.

[u/Bogdanovist_Rebel → u/IvarTheBoned]

Yes they did. The BC Greens demanded the creation of the Special Committee on Democratic and Electoral Reform. It started in April of this year. I even submitted my letter to them in May. Unfortunately the committee dissolved last week before they were able to present their findings.

They also pushed it in 2017 which resulted in the half baked referendum.

[u/IvarTheBoned → u/Bogdanovist_Rebel]

Yes, that's the difference between demanding a committee and demanding results.

Learn from past mistakes.

[u/InfiniteRespect4757 → u/VincentVanG]

if you have a strong Green candidate, time to send a message

[u/charcoalchicken → u/Independent-Lie-9967]

These numbers strongly suggest a conservative majority lol…

[u/Outside-Today-1814 → u/charcoalchicken]

It really depends on the geographic distribution.

[u/thelastspot → u/charcoalchicken]

They don't at all. If this was the final week of the election it would be a little worrying for them.

[u/Zargabraath → u/Independent-Lie-9967]

if the NDP are 5 points behind the tories (or more, as this poll suggests) how exactly do you think it is the NDP that would be forming government at all lol

[u/Tough_Tumbleweed_504 → u/Zargabraath]

Not saying I agree with their projection, but where those percentages are distributed is very important. 

If the con’s 44% is distributed really high in rural ridings, then at losing % in suburban and urban ridings, that could easily lead to the minority they’re predicting. 

[u/Zargabraath → u/Tough_Tumbleweed_504]

not if the conservatives have a 8% lead as this poll indicates

the last election was won by the skin of the NDP's teeth. They don't have a real advantage when it comes to vote distribution in BC. Hell the Greens getting more votes will probably murder the NDP vote split wise.

[u/1baby2cats → u/Tough_Tumbleweed_504]

338Canada now predicting 75% chance of Conservative majority and only 2% chance of NDP minority

338Canada British Columbia | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

[u/OkFix4074 → u/Independent-Lie-9967]

If calling it was poor , the following election campaign by NDP has been just plain awful !

Eby's political instincts is a thing to marvel at , next only to PP !

[u/01000101010110 → u/Independent-Lie-9967]

Wondering if the NDP will work out an alliance with Green to prevent the Cons from getting a majority. They have to be kicking themselves right now but that is a preferable outcome compared to the alternative.

[u/k_wiley_coyote]

Shaping up to be an impressive own-goal for the NDP.

[u/phoenixdescending]

Honest question, what's the conservatives platform? Because I haven't seen anything resembling a plan from them. Running on 'we're not the current guy' isn't good enough.

[u/drinky31 → u/phoenixdescending]

At this point it’s basically a referendum on whether you think BC NDP plan is good or not… I find it improbable that Cons will put anything tangible together.

So in classic modern politics, it’s going to be people critiquing the NDP plan vs people idealizing what they think the Cons plan will be. At this point I think it’s a genuine strategy of non incumbents because why bother releasing a plan if the majority of voters are vibes based or don’t care about concrete plans.

[u/AdventureyTime → u/drinky31]

I believe you're correct on all of your points... but holy smokes... how sad is it that this is the state of our Provincial politics? The average voter basically casts a ballot based on vibes, the whims of their equally uninformed pals, or the bad advice of morons from their family / workplace. We need reform and ironically, the Greens had a deal with the NDP to get that done, but Eby fucking flopped.

[u/staffyboy4569 → u/AdventureyTime]

I just finished a rant about this to my wife.

What an embarrassing time we live in where we vote based off the color of the sign, and the looks of the candidates, before 90% of people even bother to ask, "are they qualified?".

[u/krombough → u/phoenixdescending]

Honest question, what's the conservatives platform? Because I haven't seen anything resembling a plan from them. Running on 'we're not the current guy' isn't good enough.

Repealing DRIPA. That seems to be enough for some people.

[u/sidewinded → u/phoenixdescending]

I tend to assume it's something along the lines of dangling some keys with one hand and grifting with the other and hoping we don't notice. 

[u/MInkton → u/phoenixdescending]

Well apparently it is good enough for lots of people.
I was looking at the conservative platform, and none of it makes sense.
"Economy is a mess! Well fix it!".... by.. according to their platform, investing in water bombers to fight wild fires, investing in keeping emergency rooms open, and massive investments in LNG (all of which seem good to me), also, no new taxes.....

So, how will that balance the budget?

My conservative friends say they'll get lots of investment coming into BC, but I dont see any plan on their platform to do so. That being said, sneaky of Eby to call this election when Conservatives are in such disarray. BC deserves to have an honest conversation and fair fight about these different ways of engaging.

[u/hunkyleepickle → u/MInkton]

its just the oldest of the old conservative playbook, incentivize business thru tax breaks and they will 'trickle down' prosperity to the lower classes. Its been a lie for 50 years, and its still a lie that they roll and out and people believe.

[u/MWD_Dave → u/MInkton]

Apparently they're talking about privatizing insurance. Looking at Alberta I'm not sure that will work out well.

[u/treefarmerBC → u/phoenixdescending]

I don't think anyone has a platform. This is a result of the snap election mostly but platforms, in general, have been coming out later and later these days.

[u/Ironchar → u/treefarmerBC]

it's because neither party truly gives a shit about their consituatints

they don't want the reasonability that comes with governing- they just want the power and the money

[u/ImmovableMind → u/phoenixdescending]

They want to remove rights and freedoms and privatize everything. Thats all.

[u/Suby06 → u/phoenixdescending]

not the current guy and bigotry is about all the BC Clown Party has to offer

[u/HansHortio → u/phoenixdescending]

Alternative choice and fiscal conservatism. They are also the official opposition, so likely many of the things they have criticized Eby for in the past 2 years are also sticking to people's minds.

[u/Logojo → u/HansHortio]

Wouldn't even really say 'fiscal conservatism', their proposed budget last year wouldn't have done anything for the budget deficit, literally just tax cuts to business/upper income brackets, while gutting some services. You can either raise taxes or cut services not both or else it won't be fixing anything

[u/userofthename202 → u/HansHortio]

No new taxes is populist not fiscally conservative. They aren't fiscally conservative

[u/MogRules]

Eby is about to hit the find out part of FAFO.

[u/IvarTheBoned → u/MogRules]

So is the electorate. May conservatives get everything they deserve from electing a party so welcoming of social conservatives and provably corrupt reps.

[u/VincentVanG → u/IvarTheBoned]

Seriously, election was a dumb call but voting for the this Conservative party is about as ignorant as it gets in Candian provincial politics

[u/robfrod → u/VincentVanG]

This is why Eby called the election. He thought the electorate couldn’t possibly vote for the tire fire that is the bc Conservative Party.

After going through Covid he should have known how dumb the average person is, the worst part is 50% of people are even dumber than that!

[u/Just-Ad3485]

Doesn’t seem like they are stating their methodology for survey. Is it landlines?

I’ve received texts from conservative or NDP, nothing else.

Whatever you do, just vote.

[u/ArkAwn → u/Just-Ad3485]

Mainstreet has always been landlines lol. Selection bias right from the start

[u/Informal-Strike-1243 → u/ArkAwn]

It’s cell phone too and they have non response bias built into the model

[u/TheFallingStar → u/Just-Ad3485]

It was a phone poll from September 30th to Oct 1st. Surveyed 800+ people.

[u/Elephant_Analytics → u/Just-Ad3485]

Looks like landlines and cellphones.

[u/D3Masked]

From what I've read Voice Online is from Mainstreet Research which has a mixed track record when it comes to polling results. Sometimes they are accurate while other times it is a clear miss. Critics noted how their polling tends to skew towards older generations which tend to lean conservative.

General advice: ignore the polls and go out and vote, encourage others to also vote.

My one worry regarding the NDP is that those in power tend to face voter fatigue and Eby has had a number of controversies that the right has pounced on.

[u/Dr_soaps]

Ahh to call a election for
No reason and to lose it would be peek stupid

[u/Acrobatic-Collar347]

“David Eby said he needed a mandate to deal with the threat of Donald Trump and he may regret it”

He already had a mandate for two more years! I think we will see a conservative majority.

[u/jbroni93 → u/Acrobatic-Collar347]

Had a mandate until trump was almost out of office 😂 can't make this shit up 

[u/Triedfindingname → u/Acrobatic-Collar347]

Sad but true. Say goodbye to bike lanes, a rainbow in any format, and enshittification of the education system for starters.

[u/eoan_an → u/Triedfindingname]

Health care going private would likely be step 1. Alberta and Ontario are pushing hard for this, and it's been a failure across the board. But they're not deterred.

[u/Triedfindingname → u/eoan_an]

Why would they be? They got what they wanted out of it.

[u/craftsman_70 → u/Triedfindingname]

Actually, bike lanes is a local government thing so the province may throw some bucks at some bike lanes, the local government has more to do with that than anything else.

As for education, that's up for debate. According to recent test scores, the new "discovery" curriculum (ie discovery math) has lowered standardized scores from the previous curriculum.

[u/jsmooth7 → u/craftsman_70]

If the Conservatives decide to take the Rob Ford or Danielle Smith approach, those bike lanes could be in danger regardless of what the local government wants. The thing is the Conservatives haven't actually said what they want to do on most issues, their plan section on their website still says "Coming Soon".

[u/Triedfindingname → u/jsmooth7]

The Con way of late. No platform, and just an exploitation of the grievance vote by low information voters.

How anyone can vote for this party is unfathomable given the ecosystem.

[u/IvarTheBoned → u/Triedfindingname]

Conservative parties only exist/survive because of low-information grievance voters.

If those voters were actually educated and politically/historically aware, right wing parties would uave to move a loooooot closer to centre.

Their base would then consist almost exclusively of social conservatives.

[u/DLRorSammy → u/craftsman_70]

Bike lanes were a local thing in Ontario until they weren't.

[u/IvarTheBoned → u/craftsman_70]

Local government are a convention not a guarantee, they have no guarantees to exist. The province can dissolve any and all municipal governments and govern directly.

More plainly, the province can enforce whatever they want on municipalities because municipal governments aren't a legal obligation.

[u/TeamWinterTires → u/craftsman_70]

The new curriculum is not effective, we need to return back to the basics in the province.

I support bike lanes, well utilized and designed in Vancouver and Victoria. I can’t really speak to other parts of the province as I don’t ride there

[u/jsmooth7 → u/TeamWinterTires]

Apparently the Conservatives biggest issue with the education system is that kids learn that gay and trans people exist. They haven't said anything else about things they want to change.

[u/west7788 → u/jsmooth7]

Ideology, similar to politics and religion, needs to stay out of schools, workplaces, and all levels of government and government services.

[u/The_Follower1 → u/west7788]

Exactly, the conservatives ‘anti-woke’ indoctrination needs to stay out of schools.

[u/Vibing-Positively → u/Triedfindingname]

Our education system has already been enshittified though.

Children don’t receive letter grades anymore, or even meet/not meet expectations. Instead, they’re emerging or extending, because we can’t risk hurting their feelings. We don’t hold kids back a grade anymore, which has resulted in high schoolers reading at elementary levels. It’s best to teach kids about failure while the stakes are low. Teachers can’t give zeros for missing work or enforce deadlines. Special needs children are thrown into regular classrooms without proper support.

It’s disgusting and honestly, unfair to the children. We are not setting them up for success.

[u/AcceptableHorror705 → u/Vibing-Positively]

Oh please, they receive letter grades in high school where it's appropriate. Saying emerging or extending isn't about "hurting feelings", those standards are acceptable for child development. Why would you give an 8 year old a letter grade? They absolutely do give zeroes for for missing work and enforce deadlines. My youngest child is now in grade 12 and what you've said is nonsense.

Yes, we need more support for special needs children, I will absolutely agree with that, but guaranteed it won't be better with a right wing party, they will make more cuts.

[u/ProbableOptimist → u/Vibing-Positively]

Buddy what? I've got family in elementary school, they very much still receive letter grades. High schoolers still get letter grades? Where are you getting your info from?

[u/Ill-Hair-8157 → u/ProbableOptimist]

Maybe this is school district specific. I have kids in high school and elementary. Only at grade 10 do they get a letter grade. Many of the other school districts around are the same.

[u/west7788 → u/ProbableOptimist]

Nope. I have family with kids in elementary school and there are no grades. This is in North Van public school.

[u/ArianaIncomplete → u/ProbableOptimist]

I have kids in elementary and middle school, and they have never gotten letter grades.

[u/icanfeelitcomingup → u/Vibing-Positively]

"which has resulted in high schoolers reading at elementary levels."
On what basis do you make that claim? Have you seen actual statistics or is that just regurgitating right wing talking points?

[u/ship_toaster → u/icanfeelitcomingup]

1. There have always been some high schoolers who read at an elementary level. Something like 15% of our adult population is functionally illiterate, and nearly all of them were required to go to high school for at least a couple years, until they turned 16. People have always been able to squeak through a diploma with Fundamentals courses and C-'s.

2. Our average reading scores have dropped dramatically, and the proportion of illiterate people has risen.

3. This is true across the developed world. It's not about the BC curriculum, it's a broader shift in society (cough, phones, cough, algorithmic short-form video, cough) that we aren't doing nearly enough to combat anywhere in the world.

https://oecdedutoday.com/why-global-reading-scores-are-dropping/

[u/hassafrassy → u/Acrobatic-Collar347]

Said by someone whose human rights are not targeted of conservative governments. Must be nice

[u/swimuppool → u/hassafrassy]

This!

[u/hassafrassy → u/swimuppool]

I'm livid at ndp for risking our rights like this too. But cons vote won't fix that. It's maddening and frightening

[u/NudeBeachEnthusiast → u/Acrobatic-Collar347]

If we do, we are cooked. You thought we had issues now? Oh boy....

[u/Independent-Lie-9967 → u/Acrobatic-Collar347]

NDP minority is more likely. The Cons have done a terrible job of vetting candidates. Putting up trash just to fill spots.

The NDP also have some very strong seats that the Cons wont be able to flip. But Eby 100% misjudged this and shouldnt have bothered calling an election. He thought he would be going up against KLF ...

[u/domasin → u/Independent-Lie-9967]

That's a real cope sentiment against numbers like this, this is BAD, like cons in supermajority territory bad unless their vote is super inefficient.

[u/Independent-Lie-9967 → u/domasin]

you have to look at BC voting history and polls tho. Getting a small majority is tough enough and will some seats that simply wont flip ... I dont see a Super Majority happening for either party.

We haven't had one of those since 2020 and even then it was simply bc the BC Libs fell apart.

[u/Imaginary_Apple7700 → u/Independent-Lie-9967]

Eby won a majority last election with 44.8% of the vote.

[u/Independent-Lie-9967 → u/Imaginary_Apple7700]

yes but he doesn't hold a "super majority" as referenced in the above comment.

He currently has the min # of seats needed to form a majority govt at 47.

[u/Imaginary_Apple7700 → u/Independent-Lie-9967]

Yes I don’t think I’ve heard anyone say super majority except your comment to be honest. I don’t think anyone who has looked at the numbers believes that quite yet.

[u/Independent-Lie-9967 → u/Imaginary_Apple7700]

the comment I replied to is who brought it up.

[u/Imaginary_Apple7700 → u/Independent-Lie-9967]

Oh, that makes more sense now lol

[u/Knight_Machiavelli → u/Acrobatic-Collar347]

He had a one seat majority, what makes you think he could have lasted two more years?

[u/icanfeelitcomingup → u/Knight_Machiavelli]

The Cons were continuing to implode and unable to mount any organized opposition. NDP also had a reasonable chance to win the byelection where KLF was running, giving them an extra seat. Calling an election because he was potentially going to lose the majority at some undetermined point in the future was no reason to call an election now.
The timing was terrible, and will likely be his downfall as leader.

[u/OneBillPhil → u/Acrobatic-Collar347]

This is maybe the weirdest reason for a provincial election, ever. 

[u/Either_Struggle1734]

People better to start to stand up and try to save the province by voting. Complain about it later will be too late

[u/Zargabraath → u/Either_Struggle1734]

Oh this subreddit already has the complaining part sorted lol.

[u/Radiant_Sherbert7272]

People still haven't gotten over the early election call. The NDP seemed to forget that before KLF became the leader the NDP were down quite significantly in the polls and that David Eby wasn't very well liked.

[u/po-laris → u/Radiant_Sherbert7272]

I questioned why the top comment on every post about polling was about the early election and got 20 downvotes, so I'm about ready to say there's some astroturfing going on.

In a few months, no one will care that the election happened early, but its outcome will impact our province for years.

Might be time to focus on some of the actual issues that differentiate the NDP and Conservatives other than when the election was called.

[u/Copacetic75 → u/po-laris]

This is exactly how mature, grown ups think. most of the responses here seem to be made by underdeveloped minds.

[u/Reeder90 → u/Copacetic75]

It may be why bettors don’t think this is a slam dunk for the Conservatives despite a couple polls that give them a significant lead. Polymarket still has this as a coin toss.

I don’t love election betting, but when it comes to real money people seem to act more rationally.

[u/Frater_Ankara → u/po-laris]

100%, that and the inevitable “he could have done this already!’ Top comment about any NDP election promise, technically true but a logical fallacy since there aren’t infinite resources and conditions are always changing.

I’d rather have some serious discussion about pros/cons of policies than emotional astroturfing… you know what actually matters. We’re better than this, it’s the future of our province at stake.

I personally don’t think the Cons are appropriate to govern based on their past (even very recent) behaviour, all 37 MLAs including Doerkson voted to repeal Human Rights after all. At this point it seems my hope is they have a large bungle before voting takes place. If you think differently about the BCCP, great, let’s talk about policy differences and outlook.

[u/po-laris → u/Frater_Ankara]

If you think differently about the BCCP, great, let’s talk about policy differences and outlook.

I've read nearly every post about the election on this sub so far and I can't recall a single comment that actually presents the Conservatives as a desirable outcome.

I also want to note that there is (from my admittedly paranoid POV) a suspicious amount of posts that follow a "I don't like the cons but I can't bring myself to vote for David Eby cause I'm so mad at him. Should I vote Green/CentreBC?" template.

Or maybe I'm imagining things.

[u/Reyalta → u/po-laris]

Yeah... and didn't the conservatives WANT an early election anyway? They were begging for it not long ago

[u/zaypuma → u/po-laris]

I think it sorts by "best" by default, and that's not a very controversial take. I don't know if it requires a conspiracy, especially since the all the corporate and public media are parroting the same line. This sub if far-out left, so other criticisms of the NDP (or endorsements of the Cons) sink quickly.

[u/grilledcheesespirit_ → u/po-laris]

yup, and always with the same talking points and always within minutes of the post

[u/Stickopolis5959 → u/po-laris]

For sure astro turfing and bots involved, too much exact repeat posts from brand new accounts

[u/craftsman_70 → u/Radiant_Sherbert7272]

That's exactly why Eby called the election....he thought he had an opponent who was less popular than he was. Now, he is loosing to an unknown.

[u/FallenRaptor → u/craftsman_70]

Well, people do know the Con leader is not Eby and for a not insignificant number of people I’m sure this election reads more like Eby vs not Eby than anything.

[u/CulturalTeam2675 → u/Radiant_Sherbert7272]

People shouldn't get over the early election call. Why should we get over wasting of millions of dollars...

[u/N0_Goldsun → u/Radiant_Sherbert7272]

From what I see people don't understand the difference between the federal conservatives and the provincial ones. They seem to think they are voting for Poilievre

[u/Elephant_Analytics → u/N0_Goldsun]

I don't think that's really the case. The federal Conservatives did significantly worse in the Mainstreet poll (which also asked British Columbians about federal voting preferences).

Federal polling result was Liberals+10 with Conservatives (Poilievre) at 33.7%.

Provincial polling result was Conservatives+7.5 with Conservatives at 44.7%.

[u/zalam604 → u/N0_Goldsun]

This is a very old, dated argument. People said that after the last election, which went down to the wire. Then we got Carney as PM. Clearly, people know the difference between liberals and conservatives on the federal front. Is it so hard to understand that people just don't want the NDP in power anymore?

[u/The--Majestic--Goose]

What the actual fuck… there are multiple parties for people to vote for if they are upset with the NDP. I don’t understand why so many want to vote for the party of anti science grifters. It doesn’t seem to matter how shitty and incompetent their slate of candidates is…

[u/Responsible-Offer724 → u/The--Majestic--Goose]

Tik tok, Facebook, instagram. 

[u/TomatilloDear3744 → u/The--Majestic--Goose]

My riding (Langford BC) went Con in the last election because the NDP and Liberals* split the progressive vote. We lost an excellent MP (Alistair MacGregor) and replaced with Jeff Kibble who failed to show up to debates and is basically unavailable to anyone except his own base.

I think the same thing is about to happen here provincially, unfortunately.

Are the conservatives popular? I think there's definitely a subset of people here who are very conservative (small-c) and simply aren't politically engaged enough to explore the other parties to determine if they're actually a good fit for them. They see the name and vote.

(Edit: misspoke, originally said "NDP and Greens" but federally it was the Liberals and NDP who split the vote here)

[u/Filligan → u/TomatilloDear3744]

Langford did not lose Alistair because of the Greens. They lost him because of the Liberals. The huge push to vote strategically backfired in Langford, as it did in many ridings.

[u/flamedeluge3781 → u/TomatilloDear3744]

because the NDP and Green split the progressive vote

Whut?

https://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovrGE45/62/12621e.html

Greens only got 1500 votes. It's actually because so much of that vote went to the real estate agent that the LPC ran.

[u/TomatilloDear3744 → u/flamedeluge3781]

You're correct. I said the Greens but I misspoke, I meant to write the Liberals... the provincial election is clearly on the brain.

[u/thwgrandpigeon → u/The--Majestic--Goose]

Look up criticisms or first past the post for flaws in your argument

[u/erty3125 → u/[deleted]]

If only there was something the NDP could have done about that

[u/Nico_tang → u/erty3125]

They tried twice and it failed

[u/bluedeer10 → u/erty3125]

You mean the people of BC constantly not voting in the referendum?

[u/The--Majestic--Goose → u/[deleted]]

Ya I completely agree that FPTP sucks and I was gutted about the last referendum on electoral reform. 

Still though, the amount of people voting for the BC Cons instead of a more reasonable centre right party like Centre BC is baffling. Are there really that many anti-vaxxers, and Christian nationalists in BC? I think most people just aren’t paying attention and the media has failed them by framing the conservatives as “centre right”.

[u/IvarTheBoned → u/The--Majestic--Goose]

There's enough of them that splitting CentreBC and BCC into the fiscal/social conservative camps would almost guarantee the NDP win a majority of ridings.

That's why BC United and BCC merged at the ladt minute last election, that's why all the rats except Sturko jumped back on the BCC ship after KLF was removed as leader. They know BCC branding & big trnt is necessary.

[u/NudeBeachEnthusiast → u/The--Majestic--Goose]

We are so cooked if these freaks gain office

[u/whererusteve → u/[deleted]]

Why people keep dismissing Green is textbook propaganda. We have to stop paying attention to polls and vote with our senses. Stop trying to guess how other people will vote. We are living out the definition of insanity by doing this all the time.

[u/Old_and_moldy → u/whererusteve]

Maybe people don’t vote Green because they expect them to be more fiscally irresponsible than even the NDP?

[u/flamedeluge3781 → u/whererusteve]

Well their platform seems nonsensical.

[u/Yoooooooowhatsup → u/whererusteve]

This is fair. Personally for me I would need to see a Mamdani-esque movement toward a different party before I will drop strategic voting.

I grew up with the BC Liberals and Stephen Harper and I made a commitment then to always vote ABC and strategically until such a time I felt I didn’t have to. I’ve yet to see that time come and if anything it’s further away than ever with Conservative parties all around the world cozying up with a lot of nefarious folks. 

Just look to the separatist movement and Danielle Smith in Alberta to see  where Conservatism is currently at. The manner with which the BCCons conduct themselves suggests to me they’re no different.

So, for me at least, I’ll still be voting strategically to try and avoid ever having a Conservative government ever again in BC.

[u/Chocolatelakes → u/Yoooooooowhatsup]

How will we ever get to a Mamdani-style movement if everyone continues voting strategically using your logic? You’re basically just saying you’re waiting around for others to make the change so you can hop on at the last moment only when they are able to win the election.

[u/Head_Crash → u/The--Majestic--Goose]

What the actual fuck… there are multiple parties for people to vote for if they are upset with the NDP. I don’t understand why so many want to vote for the party of anti science grifters.

Voting 3rd party helps the conservatives win because it splits the vote.

[u/Chocolatelakes → u/Head_Crash]

The NDP should have delivered on their promises while in government if they wanted to prevent vote splitting on the left.

[u/Automatic_Frosting88 → u/Chocolatelakes]

Bravo!! This is it exactly, the NDP fucked up big time (as usual) they shit all over their base, called an unnecessary election and now they are fear mongering about splitting the vote and letting the racist bigots win. The NDP put us all in this position and now want to blame us if they lose? Fuck them, Im Voting green, that actually have a good platform and a leader.

[u/The--Majestic--Goose → u/Head_Crash]

Not if it splits the vote on the right. I had hope that reasonable conservative minded voters would support centre BC instead of a bunch of quacks, but it seems like the old adage is true: “when going gets tough, the left falls apart and the right falls in line.”

[u/Select_Historian6269 → u/Head_Crash]

Oh man if only there was another way to tally votes than FPTP

[u/McFestus → u/Select_Historian6269]

We've had three referendums in BC to change the way vote. Voter's have rejected moving from FPTP every time.

[u/Ironchar → u/McFestus]

more like the referendum did a poor job asking the question, PTB/status quo wanted FPTP to rule....

AND FUCKING VOTER APTHY IN BC

[u/Select_Historian6269 → u/McFestus]

I know. 2005 was one and failed by less than 3% of a 60% requirement. They obviously wanted it to fail.

[u/grilledcheesespirit_ → u/The--Majestic--Goose]

it's just early polling. give it a couple weeks and see where things stand. also be aware that there's a lot of astroturfing going right now.

the conservatives will always have a solid base but they also shoot themselves in the foot a lot.

[u/LibrarianSwimming851 → u/The--Majestic--Goose]

Im voting Greens personally. After John Horgan, the party completely collapsed.

[u/bwoah07_gp2]

https://giphy.com/gifs/Ym8rByqD34yTwoajGu

Time to buckle up, because a party with racists in their ranks might be the next government! 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

[u/EnthusiasmFar4443 → u/bwoah07_gp2]

This is all on Eby. He had a majority and a two year mandate.

I have met exactly zero people looking forward to this snap election.

Waste of time and cost.

[u/StrangeCurry1 → u/EnthusiasmFar4443]

He better resign if the tories win

His unpopularity is holding the NDP back

[u/icanfeelitcomingup → u/StrangeCurry1]

No chance that he can stay on if they lose the majority by a decisive margin. If it is just by a seat or two, he could potentially stay on and wait for the Conservatives to inevitably implode when their candidates say the crazy parts out loud.
Once KLF resigned, Eby should have pulled back on the election plans. A loss will be totally on him.

[u/Ironchar → u/StrangeCurry1]

these "cons" are anything BUT Tories

[u/icanfeelitcomingup → u/bwoah07_gp2]

You forgot that they also have anti-LGTBQ, anti-vax/science deniers, religious nuts, pro MAGA, and separatists!

[u/I_am_always_here]

My probably too long comment here is that there are potentially many new voters considering voting Conservative who do not realize just how many of the policies they depend upon and like were never in fact permanent fixtures of British Columbia. The Conservatives can and may rescind those laws, including renter protections, progressive labour laws, safety regulations, minimum wage increases, tax refunds such as the BC renters tax, tax refunds for the poor, some of the more generous social programs to help the indigent and homeless, and environmental protections.

For example, it was not that long ago that rent control was far more lax, when Landlords could evict with 2 months notice simply to change the carpets and paint. And the only penalty for bad faith evictions was a token fine of 1 months rent. Also say goodbye to many suites on the market to be turned back into AirBnBs, and goodbye to the other steps the NDP have taken to finesse new builds past intransigent councils, and the vacant home taxes. The Conservatives see all this as government interfering with private property rights, I guarantee it.

If I was a Landlord or a wealthy property owner invested in a REIT, or owned several large businesses, I might well vote for the Conservatives, because they have my financial interests in mind. But why would a working person barely holding on to a below market suite vote for the Conservatives? To watch their taxes go up while the tax rate on the wealthy goes down? Be evicted to double their rent? To pay double car insurance rates? This is the age old scam sold to workers and the lower middle-class - that cutting taxes on the wealthy and business will somehow lead to that money "trickling down" to the poor. No, it won't, it never does. This argument even astonishingly even argues for lower wages for workers so companies can stay competitive, rather than create oligarchies. It was no accident that Eby announced his regulatory scheme for grocers costs in front of Jim Pattison's Save-On-Foods.

The latest bit of simple-minded memes from The Conservatives is calling the new tax on the wealthy "Tax on Doctors." No doubt to deflect from much of the NDPs recent good work bringing Doctors from the States. They do deserve credit for this, not matter what one's political leanings. And the NDP changed how Doctors can bill from working within clinics, leading to many more such businesses opening. With the Conservatives those policies may be thrown out, and wide swaths of the medical system privatized, because competition will bring down prices or something. Any Conservative voter that says, the Conservatives won't do that because those policies are working, do not understand how stupid politics are in B.C. And that stupid certainly includes Eby's election call.

[u/nutbuckers → u/I_am_always_here]

You call a bunch of things that fall outside of progressive policies "simple minded", but please let's not forget the pervasive (even if it's subjective) sentiment of ongoing erosion of the middle class in BC. My impression is that the NDP is very good at spending tax dollars, but have not done much at all to shore up "empathy fatigue" or boost the economy. It feels like Eby ran out of ideas after hitting a bunch of setbacks and scandals with UNDRIP and now they're just being opportunistic.

If not for the poor quality of ideas and lack of talent on BC CPC's part, BC NDP would have been in an even bigger hole, even sooner.

[u/gongshow247365 → u/I_am_always_here]

Had i known idiot was going to call this snap election I would be buying a rental house tomorrow but I'm a year away from getting my minimum down payment ffs. Now I'll most likely be priced out once the private equity comes in and starts gobbling up houses

[u/Reeder90]

Liaison’s second poll of the campaign should be coming today, let’s see if it corroborates this one.

[u/Evening_Shift5587]

Has Eby mentioned Donald Trump since announcing the election? 

[u/Zargabraath → u/Evening_Shift5587]

He’s been pretending to run against Donald Trump this entire time.

[u/Acid_Cat2 → u/Evening_Shift5587]

Yes

[u/Radiant_Sherbert7272 → u/Evening_Shift5587]

Yes. He's mentioned him over 20 times. That didn't work so now he's going after Jim Pattison

[u/P0RK-BUTT → u/Evening_Shift5587]

He’s shifted to telling everyone Jim Patterson the guy with his name all over hospitals throughout the province from his donations is now the enemy

[u/Thirdborne]

Models have the results closer. I think we're getting swamped with low quality servays to discourage voters.

[u/1baby2cats]

338canada weekly update;

Bc conservatives now projected at 78% chance of majority

https://338canada.com/bc/

[u/StarkStorm]

This is insane. BC cons don't even have a platform they are running on!

[u/OkFix4074 → u/StarkStorm]

Tells more about how badly Eby has gone about this

[u/treefarmerBC → u/StarkStorm]

Does the NDP have a platform yet?

[u/TheSketeDavidson → u/treefarmerBC]

They don’t, it’s a bit of a silly argument to be made for a snap election.

[u/tgspeed7287 → u/treefarmerBC]

Trump bad, Trump very bad, Trump really truly very bad

[u/Terrible-Wishbone790]

Things are about to get a lot worse in BC real fast. BC already had the lowest income taxes in the country, second lowest sales taxes, some of the lowest property taxes and we have seen a huge increase in medical staff hiring and we've seen frozen insurance rates and house prices finally dropping. The BC conservatives are pretty much an anti science group that is going to make things more expensive for every citizen.

[u/carbonized_milk → u/Terrible-Wishbone790]

Yep. Get ready for even worse wait times at the hospital, bigger class sizes at school, and a renter crisis when everyone starts getting evicted cause they jacked the rent up.

[u/Myte1088 → u/Terrible-Wishbone790]

BC only has the lowest income tax for earners under 100k, earners over 190k already have on of the highest. Are you suggesting we should raise taxes substantially for those making under 100k as we are the lowest in the country? If the income tax proposal by the NDP gets through we will be one of the highest in the world. We went from a budget surplus to huge deficit in 4 years. Regardless of who you are voting for, the fact is the current government needs to be fiscally more responsible you can’t tax your way out of it. In the 90s the NDP ironically tried this and we spent the following 15 years lowering taxes and trying to attract skilled workers and businesses back to the province.

[u/Zargabraath → u/Terrible-Wishbone790]

I see we’re past the “these pollsters are wrong” coping phase and into the “the bc conservatives will make bc into a wasteland” fearmongering phase

[u/aiceeslater]

Even horrible policies and track records don’t get the voters’ attention like an unnecessary power grab by someone with all the power already

[u/Sunnydaysomeday]

PEEPOL!

What are we doing! We cannot elect these homophobes in.

Mark my words we will end up in a referendum situation in no time. I am not scared mongering. I’ve just seen what happened in Alberta, which is who these people are aligned with and emulate.

Let’s get it together.

[u/Impossible_Sign7672 → u/Sunnydaysomeday]

I hear you, but I raise you the Conservative platform: NUH-UH! WE WOULD NEVER. WE ARE REASONABLE PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT THE NDP. 

[u/Karpetkleener → u/Sunnydaysomeday]

As an Albertan, seriously this is how it starts. Please BC, be better than us! I'm wanting to flee to you if the UCP get in again, don't let the Cons fuck up your beautiful province 💙

[u/willypie]

Jfc haha the NDP really said aight we're done does anyone else want a shot

[u/Copacetic75]

So much fear mongering. Get out and vote.

[u/Topkind]

Voting Green and hoping for a minority NDP government. I can't believe the polls and that people actually gonna vote Conservative

[u/DraftyOx → u/Topkind]

You should double check your riding polling before that. If you're in a riding where the Greens are competitive than it's a pretty smart move, but if they're not you're just helping the cons get a majority

[u/Muppetron → u/Topkind]

Won’t the more people that vote for greens ultimately increase the odds of a conservative majority

[u/IvarTheBoned → u/Muppetron]

Yeah, that is in fact exactly how FPTP works, and it is embarrassing so many people are protest voting in key ridings instead of making an informed decision to keep conservatives out.

[u/Hikingcanuck92 → u/Topkind]

Voting green and getting a conservative super majority. What a self own.

Don’t get me wrong, I also want a minority NDP with greens making up the difference, but it only makes sense to vote green in a few riding

[u/Prudent_Slug → u/Topkind]

The Conservatives thank you.

[u/Surv0]

Not impressed with this move but Ill never vote conservative... only poll sms I received was if I was going to vote con or not... so wonder where they getting these numbers.. I didnt respond at all.

[u/llandthejam → u/Surv0]

Never ever Conservatives

[u/Impossible_Sign7672 → u/Surv0]

Definitely always respond Con. It makes them think they have more support than they do and it may motivate some more apathetic voters if they think the Cons might actually win. 

[u/adyasaje → u/Surv0]

same. that is the only sms poll I received as well. I answered "not for you" so I think my answer wouldn't have been included anyway. Happy to say I will be voting Green this election!

[u/whererusteve → u/adyasaje]

Me too. I feel a lot of people are thinking different

[u/rando_commenter]

Survey was conducted Oct 1-3. It's saying the same thing as the Angus Reid poll yesterday because it was polling during the same time frame.

One thing to keep in mind during an election season is that you can get an impression that one side has lots of momentum because lots of polls are in their favour, but really it's different polls reporting the same thing. The "momentum" comes from the information in the polls not necessarily how many polls in total. So if you have a few polls with large sample sizes, you already have a decent sample because of how statistics work with large numbers you just need different types of polls (panels, telephone) to get a complete picture.

Polling firms don't produce political polls out of the goodness of their hearts. This is pageantry, they are all displaying their capabilities to get work from paying customers for other projects later. So every polling firm comes out of the wood work during this time.

But yes, enough polls to show bad early start for NDP. Note where it's being exasperated: weak CentreBC et al and any kind of splitting on the right.

[u/everythingwastakn]

Eby is just the worst politician. Dude is gonna own how badly the Cons are gonna obliterate this province.

[u/Low-Cardiologist-109]

I haven’t really read or seen any platform from the BC conservatives. I see so many people on this sub saying how bad this is going to be, I’m curious what are the BC cons saying that is making everyone so worried? What is their platform? Genuinely curious.

[u/Outside-Today-1814 → u/Low-Cardiologist-109]

Big picture. They completely lack organization or a unified vision, and are full of people with extremely different views. I might be wrong here, but I dont think a single MLA has led or significantly contributed to any legislation. It’s going to be really hard for them to function as a government with so much disagreement, and without any legislative experience.

In terms of actual platform, they have very few details. But their policies of government cuts are going to be super harmful, as we are in a period of major need for government investment to upgrade infrastructure and keep the healthcare and education systems functioning. Most likely they will run massive deficits and all our government services will get worse. Which is bad, because our government services are already really struggling.

[u/Icy-Wing-3092]

When the conservatives win, you should all take a long look at yourselves. Your mentality and rhetoric help caused this.

[u/Old_and_moldy → u/Icy-Wing-3092]

‘If’ the cons win. You don’t get to behave as irresponsibly as the NDP and keep on truckin’. You want a better NDP party you will need them to lose. If the cons do win I wish for our provinces success. Regardless we have tough times ahead I think. This debt bomb is gonna blow up some day and no party is willing to do what is necessary to stop it.

[u/Icy-Wing-3092 → u/Old_and_moldy]

Definitely for them to be better they’ll have to lose

[u/fastcurrency88 → u/Icy-Wing-3092]

The Conservative Party is an absolute mess and it’s still polling this close. I think this is more indicative of how poorly the NDP under Eby has performed since getting in power.

[u/Radiant_Sherbert7272 → u/Icy-Wing-3092]

The NDP caused this.

[u/CuriousGreyhound → u/Icy-Wing-3092]

Nope, the NDP can thank themselves for not kicking out Eby sooner after these past 2 years and failed promises. Greens/Cons we go!

[u/Icy-Wing-3092 → u/CuriousGreyhound]

You’re saying unmitigated open-air drug use was not a good idea?

[u/HiddenTigerLion]

Anyone know if we will get riding specific polls for this election?

[u/Weird_Rooster_4307]

Nice to see people want to for the BC Conservatives in which Doerkson has said he is open to doubling car insurance rates. I wonder what they want to do to health care?

[u/collindubya81]

If you think voting blue will save you money think again, Hope you all want to start paying MSP premiums for every head in your household as that will be returning and probably higher than before.

[u/UnfairVehicle9285]

It's gonna be a minority NDP government, and Eby will be back to square one, trying to work with the Greens to govern. Wildly miscalculated on his part.

[u/IvarTheBoned → u/UnfairVehicle9285]

I hope this is the outcome, and that the Greens conditionally support the NDP with the guarantee of implementing electoral reform in the first 100 days.

[u/captainbelvedere]

This is shaping up to be one of those "Voters are going to get what they deserve" kind of elections.

[u/maskedkiller215]

We aren’t seeing another NDP government for at least 10 years.

Great job Eby and company!

[u/userofthename202 → u/maskedkiller215]

If cons get in we'll see another NDP government in 4 years atmost. But probably earlier

[u/Charlie9261]

We might be better off with a minority government. NDP-Green coalition. I wouldn't mind seeing what the Green's can do. The Cons are a mess.

[u/BCS875]

As an Albertan, you're all screwed if you vote in these pieces of sh**.