We know that tensions are bubbling towards a war between Eritrea and Ethiopia, but why and what are the desired outcomes of the main warring groups: Isaias led Eritrea, Tigray split between Woyane and the TPF and Abiy's PP Ethiopia.

My theory dives into the thought processes of Isaias Afwerki Abraha, the president of Eritrea. Before we go to today's issues, let's talk about who he is. Isaias is the son if Afwerki Abraha and Adanesh Berhe. Afwerki Abraha as we know was a member of the Unionist Party and significantly his brother was Dejazmach Solomon Abraha, a prior governor of Wollo, who was rumoured to have ordered assassinations on Woldeab Woldemariam. So we can see he clearly hails from a family who had a strong sentiment for unity with the 'mother country' Ethiopia. After joining the ELF in 1966, it has been confirmed that Isaias Afwerki had been to Asmara on numerous occasions to meet with the CIA and the prior governor of Eritrea Ras Asrate Kassa. In fact, PIA (President Isaias Afwerki) even visited the Ras in London when he was ill while he was abroad in 1981/2. Essentially, it seems as though he was realistically working for the Ethiopian cause.

Fast forward to independence, in an interview conducted in 1993, PIA discusses his plans to implement a framework to reintegrate within Ethiopia within the next 3-4 decades, bearing in mind Eritrea had just gone through a 30 year war for independence from Ethiopia. There were then more comments made post the peace deal in 2018. These being PIA's comments that 'whoever thinks that the people of Eritrea and Ethiopia are two different peoples are unaware of the truth'. In addition, he informed us that he will no longer be our president and instead 'Abiy will now be our leader' and if he desires Assab, Massawa or Barentu he has access to it and doesn't require anyone's permission.

If PIA wants Abiy to be our leader and we are one people, it seems as though he still has the same sentiment he was born with and now how does that affect the situation we are in.

Let's go on with the idea that PIA wants to annex Eritrea back into Ethiopia, what obstacle is there between Addis and Asmara, it's Woyane. Now, between 2020-2022 an attempt was made to get rid of Woyane (alongside numerous crimes against humanity) but that failed since Addis and Asmara could not keep up economically with the war. Now Addis has recovered, their army stronger and more technologically advanced than ever and Abiy.

Let's circle back to what PIA must achieve for his dreams, Woyane to be gone (and TPF/PP to succeed). Working with Woyane in what is now known as Tsimdo is a perfect way to sabotage Woyane and the EDF to allow PP to enter Tigray and finally Asmara thus achieving the mother country his family fought for. Strategically, he has pulled away from Tigray to the border with Eritrea with PP now approaching Zalambessa to the east and Rama to the west. The war has now been brought to Eritrea's footsteps, perhaps now PIA's goal is insight. The question is how far along the command chain is this understood in the EDF, of course we know that the majority of the ministers in Eritrea are surprisingly the children of Unionist party members who all happened to be friends.

I wonder what you're thoughts are, are there details that are missing that could indicate that I'm completely on the wrong tracks?

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

How do we help eritrea? As a diaspora it pains me deeply to see what eritrea is like and how my people are suffering inside the country and the people trying to escape.

My question is how do we bring a solution to this given the situation.

There are many well educated diaspora’s and i feel as if we were to come together we could probably bring a plan of action. The ideal situation is to overthrow Isias but the reality is that as a people we are very divided however both pro government and anti government we do align in wanting better for Eritrea.

A few years ago, Isaias and Abiy were allies in a war against the TPLF. Eritrea did gained nothing out of, but lost so many young soldiers.

Now reports of a possible Eritrea–TPLF alignment against Abiy are emerging. Dictatorship has reached peak irony.

I am sure that many many many will find a reason why we have to support TPLF. But in reality there is no reason. Secondly how quickly you forget the 3 decades of fights against TPLF? Probably everyone of us has family members who died in a war against TPLF. How are we feeling about that? Is it betrayal? Is it treason?

But since i know how Eritrean brains are working I am sure you all will feel good with supporting tplf in a war which is not ours again.

Conclusion: people have no morals and no values.

Could Ethiopia’s strategy be to remove Isaias Afwerki and let Eritrea fall into internal conflict rather than trying to control the entire country? Since not all Eritreans would support joining Ethiopia, could the Afar population around Assab push for their own independence or integration with Ethiopia instead? Could this be a realistic scenario where Ethiopia gains access to Assab without having to annex all of Eritrea? How likely do you think this is?

Ethiopian state media EBC removed the article in which it stated there is a verification gap and that the Eritrean incursion into Ethiopia is not verified, after I shared it on X two hours ago and noted that it can be used as evidence at the UN and ICJ. The article confirmed what other sources have stated—that the claim remains unverified—and that the ACLED report has not been independently verified by AP News and Reuters.

It also linked Ethiopia’s accusation of an unverified Eritrean incursion into Ethiopia with Ethiopia’s claims on Eritrea’s sea coast.

While the article cited the British NGO ACLED as a source, AP News could not verify the accusations. It is also worth noting that ACLED’s East Africa senior expert, Dr. Jalale Getachew, is a former Ethiopian government lawyer, and the director of ACLED has previously condoned an Ethiopian invasion to annex Eritrea’s southern Red Sea coastline.

https://www.ebc.et/english/Home/N (page not found)

acled directors remarks on Ethiopia taking Eritrea's coastline by force:

'Ethiopia is a much larger country than Eritrea... and Ethiopia has every right to say, listen, we're going on 120 million people, we need sea access," Clionadh Raleigh, director of the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data organisation and a professor of African politics and conflict at the UK's University of Sussex, told RFl.
Eritrea, she said, is less densely populated, and led by an old dictator. "The Isaias Afwerki regime is something that people cannot wait to see end. And Addis is still hoping to reintegrate it into a larger Ethiopia, potentially within the next generation." https://x.com/TomGardner18/status/2026658564987932961?s=20 Tom Gardner, The Economist-African Correspandant Surprised to see the director ACLEDINFO making the case for Lebensraum in the Horn:

The narrative of invading and seizing sea access from Eritrea is well-worn in Ethiopia, and the government and population have many reasons why they think it is a good idea. This is partially due to a currently popular line that the EPRDF (the former Ethiopian government party before Abiy Ahmed Ali, dominated by the TPLF) “gave away” Ethiopian territory in 1991. It is now Abiy’s responsibility to take it back and, with it, secure a state of roughly 138 million people sea access. This narrative has very few noted downsides, so as you can imagine, it is very popular. One thing to recall from last time is that the Ethiopian population, broadly, supported the 2020-2022 conflict. Western journalists seemed particularly put out by this, as it required them to inquire into the reasons that the population largely despised their minority Tigrayan overlords of 28 years. https://acleddata.com/newsletter/raleigh-report-october-2026

https://www.reddit.com/r/Eritrea/comments/1x2znot/comment/pf9xq4q/?context=3&utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

https://www.reddit.com/r/Eritrea/s/KL8VqgDV8q

New war in the Horn of Africa

Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of ​​invading Tigray

Eritrean troops are reported to have crossed the border to support rebels in Tigray. Ethiopian troops are themselves advancing there.

October 11, 2026

From

Dominic Johnson

The new civil war in Ethiopia, which broke out almost three weeks ago,is escalating into an international conflict. Eritrea, whose government politically supports the Ethiopian rebels, sent its army across the border last week to provide military support to the insurgent Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray.

The operation was intended to prevent the Ethiopian army from completely conquering Tigray. The northern Ethiopian region had once again seceded from the Ethiopian central government in 2025 and is governed by the former guerrilla movement, the TPLF, which had already waged a bloody war against the Ethiopian government from 2020 to 2022. On September 20, the TPLF, together with allies in other parts of the country, formed a rebel alliance, which launched attacks on September 23. However, after only a few days, the tide turned; the TPLF withdrew without a fight from Tigray's capital, Mekelle , leaving it to the advancing Ethiopian forces.

Together with loyal Tigray militias, the Ethiopian army has since occupied further locations in Tigray, while the Tigray rebels retreated north to the border with Eritrea. According to Ethiopian reports, the entire TPLF leadership even fled to Eritrea.

As in all phases of this war, there is a great deal of conflicting information. According to independent analyses, between 5,000 and 8,000 Eritrean soldiers crossed the border into Tigray last week – the exact timing is disputed – and moved south in armored vehicles towards Mekelle, reaching the town of Adigrat before being stopped by Ethiopian drone strikes and withdrawing. Ethiopian soldiers have been in Adigrat since Saturday . Whether they have also reached the historic monastery town of Axum further west remained unclear on Sunday.

Mutual accusations

Ethiopia and Eritrea are trading public accusations against each other. In a letter to the United Nations on Friday, the Ethiopian government spoke of a "flagrant aggression" against which it was exercising its "inherent right to self-defense," and on Saturday demanded that the UN Security Council condemn Eritrea.

The Eritrean government, for its part, demanded a condemnation of Ethiopia. In its response to the UN on Saturday, it spoke of a "declaration of war" by Ethiopia, which intended to put into action "its long-planned project of invading Eritrea." This refers to the allegation that Ethiopia wants to annex the Eritrean port of Assab on the Red Sea in order to gain its own access to the sea.

Ethiopia lost its access to the sea when Eritrea gained independence in 1993. Eritrean liberation fighters, together with the Tigray rebels of the TPLF, had previously overthrown the Ethiopian government. However, Ethiopia's new TPLF-led government and the newly formed state of Eritrea quickly became estranged and fought a bloody war from 1998 to 2000 over their ambiguously defined border in the Tigray mountains. The conflict ended in an Eritrean defeat and a UN-brokered peace agreement that was only partially implemented.

When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in Ethiopia in 2018, he made peace with Eritrea, and both governments jointly fought a TPLF insurgency in Tigray from 2020 to 2022. Now, however, the TPLF and Eritrea have reunited – and the crimes committed by Eritrean soldiers against the Tigrayan civilian population during the 2020-2022 war remain a vivid memory. There are increasing reports that many Tigrayans now reject the TPLF because of its cooperation with Eritrea, a country they despise, and, unlike during the last war, now welcome the advance of the Ethiopian army.

At the same time, however, concerns are growing about direct fighting between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The fact that both governments are appealing to the UN is seen by some as a positive sign. "By first calling on the UN to ensure the withdrawal of Eritrean troops from Ethiopian territory, Ethiopia is showing that it intends to exercise restraint for the time being rather than launch a full-scale war," writes analyst René Lefort . UN Secretary-General António Guterres had previouslyexpressed "deep concern" about the situation in the region in a statement .

Research indicates that Eritrea has over 80,000 recorded archaeological sites, making it second only to Egypt in terms of archaeological density on the African continent. Major sites include [Qohaito] (an massive ancient commercial city), [Adulis] (the principal port of the Aksumite Empire), and [Metera] (home to the Hawulti obelisk).

There are deep political, ideological, and historical reasons why Eritrea chooses not to loud-mouth this heritage, while the central government in Addis Ababa boasts about it constantly:

1. The Need for a Unique "Eritrean" Identity

When Eritrea fought its 30-year war for independence from Ethiopia (1961–1991), it had to build a national identity that separated it completely from Ethiopia.

Because Ethiopia had already co-opted the Aksumite legacy as its own national brand, emphasizing Aksum too heavily would play right into the Ethiopian narrative that Eritrea was "historically part of greater Ethiopia."

To counter this, the Eritrean state focused its pride on the Ghedli (the liberation struggle) and its modern history, rather than its ancient history.

1. Safeguarding Multi-Ethnic Unity

Eritrea is composed of nine recognized ethnic groups. The Tigrinya-speaking population (Biher-Tigrinya) makes up roughly 50% of the country, while the other half consists of Tigre, Afar, Saho, Kunama, and others.

The Aksumite heritage belongs exclusively to the highland Tigrinya and Saho peoples.

If the Eritrean government heavily promoted Aksum as the dominant symbol of the nation, it would alienate the other seven ethnic groups. To maintain internal harmony, the government deliberately elevates modern, unified symbols—like the architecture of [Asmara] or the struggle of [Nakfa]—over ancient Aksumite ones.

1. Isolation and Tourism Policies

While Ethiopia heavily commercialized Aksum, built hotels, and pushed for international UNESCO tourism, Eritrea took a vastly different path after independence:

The "Hermit Kingdom" Approach: Eritrea’s government restricted mass tourism, requiring travel permits for foreigners to leave Asmara.

Unexcavated History: Because of this lack of commercialization, it is estimated that only 20% of massive ancient sites like Qohaito have actually been excavated. The ruins sit quietly in the highlands, virtually untouched by the modern world.

Do you guys think the Eritrean soldiers will have the morale to fight if this war continues into Eritrea. To be willing to die for Isaias's current regime that has dragged us into our neighbor's war in the first place. I feel like a major reason we won the Independence war was because the people and soldiers truly believed in an Independent Eritrea and where willing to die for it and we had smart leaders.

Also what do you think Abiy's long term ambitions are? In my opinion I feel like the past and current regimes of Ethiopia have benefitted from Eritrea being led by the current regime and would rather that over a competent democratic government.

With the possibility of interstate war on the horizon, one thing that's spoken about a lot is the ENDF's advantage over the EDF in terms of air power (which proved to be a big factor in the last war). Since then, the EDF has made upgrades but the records of acquisitions seem to stop in 2005. They bought some SU-27s, S-125 (with upgraded electronics) and Strela-10 SAM systems and seem to have replaced the old Soviet radar + EW systems but the information available is low. Obviously there were the arms embargo period between 2009 and 2018 but they seemed to still be buying arms under the table with some missiles that were headed to Eritrea being seized in Ukraine in 2010. Unlike the last war, it seems there won't be much air to air combat due to area denial but rather drone strikes and the use of stand off munitions instead.

Sudan has it's own defence manufacturing industry so I was curious to see if they've been buying from there to skirt sanctions and embargoes. It seems that it would be wise for them to invest in some JDAM/glide bomb kits (which are produced in Sudan)

Also, what about their drone capabilities? There seems to be no concrete evidence of them acquiring them but circumstantially, it seems they have bought some from Iran and Turkey. From what's been seized from the TPLF, I'd hazard a guess that they're operating a fleet of Mohajer-6 at the very least.

the crazy part is i think this could be a proxy war over control of the red sea, and barely anyone is looking at it that way. i don’t think PIA wants to give up his own power, but i also think he wants eritrea to stay in charge of its future, with its own military and development, something like singapore , as he says. my suspicion is that outside powers would rather see eritrea hosting their forces and relying on them for security. look at japan, saudi and the gulf states. their situations are different, but how much freedom do you really have when another country can use that military relationship to pressure you? that’s where it starts looking like modern day colonialism to me. i remember an interview, possibly from around 1995, where PIA mentioned american activities he considered interference and said they were asked to leave. i’d need to find it again to check exactly what he said, but it makes me wonder how long resisting that pressure has shaped his decisions. that doesn’t make everything he’s done inside eritrea right. protecting the country’s independence shouldn’t mean people lose their own freedom. but imagine eritrea actually succeeding on its own terms. could that make people in the gulf question their dependence on outside powers? would those powers be comfortable with that? i already feel somalia, kenya and egypt are too tied to outside interests. with sudan torn apart by war, i fear eritrea could face even more pressure. sometimes i wonder whether outside powers tolerated its direction for a while and now see a regional ally as a way to force its hand. but if that really is what’s happening, maybe PIA dreamed too big, too early. eritrea was a young country, and taking on that kind of fight may have been more than it could afford. perhaps he chose the wrong strategy, or perhaps he believed the alternative was losing control of eritrea’s future, especially to ethiopia. that could also explain his constant emphasis on nationalism and nation building. i wouldn’t say eritrean nationalism barely existed, given the struggle for independence, but having a strong national identity isn’t the same as having an independent economy and established state institutions. i can imagine people in those early years naturally wanting closer ties with a friendly ethiopia, especially if it meant more trade, jobs and opportunities. maybe he feared that economic dependence would eventually give ethiopia political influence over eritrea, even without military force. through that lens, introducing the nakfa makes sense to me as an attempt to take control of the country’s economic decisions. i also associate that currency split with tensions between the two countries, although the exact sequence and causes need checking but there was definitely tension that was reported at that time. it makes me wonder whether he saw economic separation as necessary to make independence last. but cooperation doesn’t automatically mean surrendering sovereignty, and isolation doesn’t automatically protect it. that might explain why he took such a tough road, but it doesn’t prove it was the right one. was there another way to protect sovereignty without ordinary eritreans paying such a heavy price? i could be reading too much into this, and the countries involved have their own ambitions too, but i keep coming back to the same question: how much of this is about the stated disputes, and how much is about who controls the red sea? how far off am i?

Tell Us in ur own scenes What u will achieve if we go into war

Scenario 1:- Abiy succeeds,he overthrows isias...eritrea gets to be the new sudan.pro isias & anti isias military militias gets to be born & divide the country.abiy secures sea access with assab port, the UAE increases their influence in the horn of africa.internal civil wars in ethiopia continues.Egypt is happy now coz ethiopia is fractured & burned out from repetetive wars so they will comply with any demands coming from egypt.civilians in both countries continue their daily lives but now the cost of living has increased & inflation is at its peak because both countries have spent much of their foreign currency reserves & resources buying Arms.U wanna buy bread & eggs,ur gonna need a wheelbarrow to carry ur worthless money now.

scenario 2:- Ethiopian revolutionary fighters reach adiss abeba with the help of the Old man.Abiy asks for asylum in the UAE.Tigray separates itself from the rest of ethiopia & tries to get recognition but fails.Fano gets the presidential seat.UAE now backs fano & fano is now the new PP.civil war continues on all of ethiopia.Eritrea same old same old.The Old man still don't want to give up his chair.UAE is still not satisfied,but egypt has never been happier like this since 1998.The average civilian goes into wheelbarrow economy.

Scenario 3:-The war just keeps going until Jesus christ comes for the last judgement to separate the real from the fake,the fake from the real.Our politicians will still blame the other side for the cause of the bloodshed & try to manipulate God into believing them.

I, civilian have lost many friends,family members from those wars.I can assure u,u won't get anything from it.It don't matter if Abiy secures port or not.It don't matter if Isias goes down or not.If u r not a politician like getachew reda or a high networth individual like Jawar Mohammed The odds are always stacked against u on every scenario.U still lose.We all gotta ask ourselves what's in it for me.political manipulation only serves few individuals,but it needs the people inorder to function properly.why allow ourselves to be monopolies of foreign countries like UAE or EGYPT.lets look at sudan,They follow one religion,eat same food,they speak one language,dress the same clothes,they go to the same mosque.But still...two brothers from one mother are shooting at eachother to make someone happy.

I hate wars...am sorry😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭

Hello I’ve been very curious as to whether all of Eritrea is like Asmara in terms of religious intersectionality. One of the things that always surprised me going back home as someone born and raised in the US, is how mingled Muslim’s and Christian’s are in Asmara.

However tho I’ve only visited other areas shortly and never really get the chance to see how the social life is outside the city.

Basically is it more segregated by religion like how we get out here in the west or is it the same as Asmara all throughout the country?

The question is basically the title. Eritrea benefits more from indirectly supporting the rebels in Ethiopia than from directly going to war.

The reports claim 5000-8000 troops, which is basically a negligible number. These troops aren’t going to achieve anything significant but they risk making this cold conflict boil over into direct war.

Isaias is cruel and evil, but nobody doubts that he is smart. So for what possible reason would he send troops into Ethiopia?

The diaspora mistake the term "Habesha" as a pan-Ethiopian and Eritrean term even though on the ground the term historically and currently only applies to a few groups.

In reality the main Habesha groups are the Amhara, Tigray, and Gurage. However, Tigray Eritreans are referred to as Kebesa. This implies that the Kebesa ethnic group is the only Habesha group in Eritrea unless there are other terms used to describe Tigray Eritreans.

https://x.com/Alqaheranewstv/status/2108162454022717578?s=20