Revs Potential Playoff Opponents

[u/jbrown_11]

The playoff bracket is taking shape with a month till decision day. If the table holds as is the second seeded Revs would play seventh seeded Orlando. Not a bad match up. Of course there are seven matches left and the Revs are even with #3 Inter Miami on points in the East.

The only non-playoff team (if the playoffs were today) the Revs will play in the next seven games is Cincinnati on Oct 14. But that is an away game and Cincinnati is not a bad team standing just on the outside of the playoffs at 10th in the East. The Revs have the 3rd most difficult remaining schedule. On the flip side Inter Miami has a relatively easy schedule ranked 28th out of 30 teams:

• Revs (3rd most difficult remaining schedule)
  • Oct 10 v Seattle — 7th in West
  • Oct 14 @ Cincinnati — 10th in East
  • Oct 17 v Chicago — 5th in East
  • Oct 24 @ Philadelphia — 6th in East
  • Oct 28 v NY Red Bulls — 8th in East
  • Nov 2 v Inter Miami — 3rd in East
  • Nov 7 @ Orlando — 7th in East
• Inter Miami (28th most difficult remaining schedule)
  • Oct 10 v D.C. United — 11th in East
  • Oct 14 v NYCFC — 9th in East
  • Oct 17 @ Atlanta — 14th in East
  • Oct 24 @ NY Red Bulls — 8th in East
  • Oct 28 v Cincinnati — 10th in East
  • Nov 2 @ New England — 2nd in East
  • Nov 7 v Charlotte — 4th in East

If the Revs finish second in the East their likely opponent in the first round is Orlando or Cincinnati.* If the Revs finish third their most likely opponent will be Charlotte or Philadelphia. It is debatable who we would prefer to play. But the Revs should be favored in any of these draws, except for Philly which would be a toss up**. What matters more is the conference semifinal where the Revs are most likely to face Inter Miami. If the Revs can keep the second seed that will be a home match which puts them in a better position to beat Inter Miami and make a deep run.

Really looking forward to watching the Revs in the home stretch, especially that Nov 2 game vs Inter Miami!

*Based on my MLS forecasting model (tested against past seasons it wasn't trained on), which has Cincinnati climbing into 7th in a meaningful share of simulations.
** Based on my MLS forecasting model (tested against past seasons it wasn't trained on), which views Philly in its current form as a dangerous team

[u/WashingtonRev]

It’s all way too up in the air to be remotely worried about any of this. Spots 2-6 are basically interchangeable at this point. Revs finishing 2nd or 3rd is far from certain

[u/Skaman1978 → u/WashingtonRev]

We could finish first, we could finish 9th... There still a fair amount of soccer to get played

[u/WashingtonRev → u/Skaman1978]

Lmao we can absolutely not finish first but I like the thinking. Anything below 6th would take a pretty epic collapse down the stretch, but anything’s possible with this team’s injuries

[u/Skaman1978 → u/WashingtonRev]

I mean we could. It would take a epic collapse from nashville, and we would have to win out. It's a 1 in a million chance, but

https://giphy.com/gifs/ToMjGpKniGqRNLGBrhu

[u/jbrown_11 → u/WashingtonRev]

Never said it was certain they would be 2/3. There is def uncertainty but 2-6 are not interchangeable. Below is the likelihood they finish in each spot:

2nd - 30%
3rd - 30%
4th - 21%
5th - 12%
6th - 5%

The standings are very bunched up in points with Chicago and Charlotte are within four points of the Revs. But Chicago has the second hardest remaining schedule and Charlotte the fourth hardest (Revs have third hardest). Directionally all of these teams have difficult schedules and Revs have a couple points on them. Thus strong chace they stay 2/3.

The Revs slipping to 4th is a real posiblity. 5th is a bit more unlikely. I chose to focus on 2/3 as its the most likely landing spot and I choosing to be optimistic :)

[u/Masesmama]

Seattle, ass.

Cincinatti, Hot ass

Chicago, already beat them.

Philadelphia, toughest match.

NYRB, Ass.

Miami, hot ass

Orlando, already beat them

[u/Infamous-Oven1258]

I’d love to play NYRB so I can travel to an away game.

[u/Skaman1978 → u/Infamous-Oven1258]

Red Bull is a GREAT away day