r/fivethirtyeight • • 2d ago

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

29 Upvotes

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.


r/fivethirtyeight • • 7h ago

Poll Results [Marist] Texas Poll: James Talarico 47%, Ken Paxton 45% | Greg Abbott 49%, Gina Hinojosa 45% among likely voters

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122 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight • • 11h ago

Nerd Drama Rasmussen suggests that the latest Quantus poll in Texas is overly weighting Republican voters

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198 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight • • 21m ago

Poll Results Suffolk poll | 10/8-10/11 LV US Senate Maine 2026 🟦Troy Jackson 49.0% 🟥Susan Collins 47.0%

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• Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight • • 11h ago

Politics 185,767 voted in person in Georgia on the first day of early voting. An increase of 51k on day one or 38%

122 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight • • 14h ago

Polling Average BLANSAS???

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181 Upvotes

Possible stunner in the making from what FLIPR reads.


r/fivethirtyeight • • 9h ago

Politics Clark County, Nevada, First Mail Ballots: 40% Dem, 24% Rep, 36% Other. "Way too early to mean anything"

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73 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight • • 9h ago

Politics Georgia Day 1 IPEV: 50% White (56% in 2024), 37% Black (31% in 2024)

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55 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight • • 12h ago

Poll Results More Americans say Trump has prioritized his personal business interests than the country as a whole - AP-NORC

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82 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight • • 17h ago

Poll Results Quantus poll | 10/9-10/11 LV US Senate Texas 2026: 🟥Ken Paxton 47.2% 🟦James Talarico 46.7% 🟨Ted Brown 2.2%

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157 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight • • 18h ago

Election Model Cook Political Report is moving four governors' races, all in the direction of Democrats

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175 Upvotes

AK, OK, NE, VT all shift left


r/fivethirtyeight • • 21h ago

Discussion Minnesota Senate falls to Lean D on Fox News

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266 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight • • 16h ago

Politics Will Republican gerrymanders become dummymanders?

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89 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight • • 15h ago

Poll Results Florida US Senate Oct 1 - 9, 2026: Ashley Moody (R) 52% (+11.0%), Angie Nixon (D) 41%, Don't know 6%, Someone else 2%. Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research 716 LV

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72 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight • • 19h ago

Poll Results [University of Houston] Poll of Harris County, Texas: James Talarico 58%, Ken Paxton 36% | Gina Hinojosa 56%, Greg Abbott 40% among likely voters (more info below)

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142 Upvotes

Toplines/crosstabs above ⬆️

Harris County is the third most populous county not in Texas, not in the South, but in the entire United States (estimated at over 5,000,000 as of 2025). It is the home of Houston, which is the most populous city in Texas.

This includes Houston's immediate suburbs as well like Pasadena.

It is unsurprisingly a pretty diverse county. As of the 2020 Census it is 43% Hispanic/Latino, 28% White, 19% Black, 7% Asian.

Harris County used to be a reliable Republican county throughout the latter half of 20th century and early 2000s. Barack Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson to win Harris County back in 2008 (50%-49%).

Since then it has been a light blue Democratic county. And it is just light blue, not deep blue like in other urban counties because the suburbs around Houston proper are relatively more Republican compared to what you see in other metropolitan areas. Nonetheless, the county has voted reliably Democratic after 2014.

Previous Election Results in Harris County since 2000

POTUS since 2000

Year Republican Democrat Margin
2000 George W. Bush Al Gore 54.3–42.9 (R+11.4)
2004 George W. Bush John Kerry 54.8–44.6 (R+10.2)
2008 John McCain Barack Obama 48.8–50.4 (D+1.6)
2012 Mitt Romney Barack Obama 49.3–49.4 (D+0.1)
2016 Donald Trump Hillary Clinton 41.6–54.0 (D+12.3)
2020 Donald Trump Joe Biden 42.7–56.0 (D+13.3)
2024 Donald Trump Kamala Harris 46.4–51.9 (D+5.5)

Senate Election Results since 2000:

*Note*: Lloyd Bentsen, the last Democratic senator from Texas, won Harris County 59.8-40.2 (+19.6) in 1988

Year Republican Democrat Margin
2000 Kay Hutchison Gene Kelly 59.9-37.7 (R+22.2)
2002 John Cornyn Ron Kirk 52.7–46.0 (R+6.7)
2006 Kay Hutchison Barbara Radnofsky 56.5-41.3 (R+15.2)
2008 John Cornyn Richard Noriega 47.3-50.7 (D+3.4)
2012 Ted Cruz Paul Sadler 49.6-48.0 (R+1.6)
2014 John Cornyn David Alameel 54.3-42.1 (R+12.2)
2018 Ted Cruz Beto O'Rourke 41.3-58.0 (D+16.7)
2020 John Cornyn Mary "MJ" Hegar 44.5-52.9 (D+8.4)
2024 Ted Cruz Colin Allred 43.0-54.3 (D+11.3)

Gubernatorial Election Results since 2002

Year Republican Democrat Margin
2002 Rick Perry Tony Sanchez 54.8–43.2 (R+11.6)
2006 Rick Perry Chris Bell 36.5–34.5 (R+2)
2010 Rick Perry Bill White 48.1-50.2 (D+2.1)
2014 Greg Abbott Wendy Davis 51.4–47.1 (R+4.3)
2018 Greg Abbott Lupe Valdez 46.4–51.1 (D+4.7)
2022 Greg Abbott Beto O'Rourke 44.5–54.0 (D+9.5)

*Note*: Two independent candidates ran for TX-GOV in 2006, which explains the lower margins.


r/fivethirtyeight • • 12h ago

Poll Results [NewsNation/DDHQ] Generic Congressional Ballot: D+7 | Independents D+10 | Trump favorability 38% | 974 LV | October 5-9

33 Upvotes

It appears that DDHQ has paywalled the poll results, so the best source I can do [is this article from NewsNation](https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/democrats-7-point-lead-poll-ddhq/. Also note poll was conducted by an AI firm.

The poll also found Democrats leading with independents by 10 points. Also among independents:

Only about 35% said their choice was final and they would not change their minds. The poll found those independent voters want to hear more.

More than half said they would reconsider their vote if prices continued rising or fell by a noticeable amount.


r/fivethirtyeight • • 16h ago

Poll Results Arizona Governor Oct 6 - 8, 2026: Katie Hobbs (D) 50.5% (+16.8%), Andy Biggs (R) 33.7%, Don't know 10.3%, Teri Hourihan (NLP) 2.7%, Someone else 1.5%, Risa Lombardo (G) 1.3%. HighGround 400 LV

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67 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight • • 15h ago

Poll Results AP-NORC: Only 11% of Adults (including only 26% of republicans) think Trump has prioritized people like them "a lot"

52 Upvotes

link

38% of republican adults say "some", 34% say a little or not at all. Jaw-dropping numbers, especially among republican adults.

On the other hand, a majority say he has prioritized a lot both his personal business interests (56%) and the business interests of those close to him (54%).

question/responses

Most Americans say President Trump has prioritized his personal financial interests and the interests of people close to him since taking office again in 2025. Far fewer say he has prioritized the country as a whole or people like them. Four in 10 believe he has done something illegal and another 18% see his actions as unethical but not illegal, though views diverge sharply by party.

More adults see Trump as focused on his own business interests and those of his inner circle than on the country as a whole or people like them. A majority, 56%, say Trump has prioritized his personal business interests “a lot,” and 54% say the same about the business interests of his friends and family. By comparison, only 23% say he has prioritized the country overall “a lot,” and just 11% say he has prioritized people like them “a lot.” Half of Americans say Trump has not prioritized people like them at all.

Democrats and independents overwhelmingly say Trump has prioritized his own business interests and those of his friends and family “a lot” or “some,” and about half of Republicans agree. Republicans are much more likely than Democrats or independents to say the president has prioritized the country overall or people like them.


r/fivethirtyeight • • 16h ago

Poll Results 93% of U.S. Protestant pastors don't plan to endorse candidates for public office during a worship service, despite encouragement from the Trump administration

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64 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight • • 15h ago

Poll Results Florida Governor Oct 1 - 9, 2026: Byron Donalds (R) 52% (+11.0%), David Jolly (D) 41%, Don't know 5%, Someone else 3%. Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research 716 LV

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55 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight • • 13h ago

Poll Results Facing rising health insurance costs, Americans support increased government spending to lower healthcare costs

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31 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight • • 17h ago

Polling Average Greg Abbott’s Polling Is Similar to Sherrod Brown & Bob Casey’s in 2024

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65 Upvotes

Poll average here

It's hard to predict how the polls will shift, but Abbott seems to be in a similar position to Brown/Casey: consistently below 50% in October against candidates with limited experience and name ID. In both cases, the undecideds continuously moved in one direction (against the incumbent, who ultimately lost).


r/fivethirtyeight • • 14h ago

Poll Results Arizona Governor Oct 3 - 6, 2026: Katie Hobbs (D) 48.9% (+5.7%), Andy Biggs (R) 43.2%, Don't know 4.5%, Someone else 3.4%. Wick (B/C) 1513 LV

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31 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight • • 13h ago

Poll Results Rhode Island Governor Oct 8 - 11, 2026: Helena Foulkes (D) 44% (+9.0%), Ken Block (I) 35%, Aaron Guckian (R) 10%, Don’t know 9%, Christopher Reynolds (I) 1%, Jasjit Gotra (I) 1%. Emerson College (A) 800 LV

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25 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight • • 6h ago

Discussion Why is youth turnout so low throughout most of Western Europe?

7 Upvotes

There’s a reoccurring theme in the public discussion of pension reform in Western Europe; more specifically the UK and France.

“We can’t make the necessary changes to need to stave of financial insolvency and pauperization because the “boomer vote” is too strong and too organized and any reform is defeated at the ballot box”

For those that go beyond that excuse, you’ll find the occasional person who mentions that the youth don’t vote. Those however, are few and far between. Overwhelmingly, the consensus seems one of general helplessness and if you didn’t know better you’d think youth were permanently barred from voting until their 60’s in places like France.

The truth is much more frustrating: this economy is the one young people vote for. Or don’t, depending your pov. You don’t vote, you lose your strongest voice in a democracy. My question is why? why is that? Why are youth voters so low turnout? I know the Left has its struggles in America with the same problem but it feels like the youth vote has been more effectively organized since at least the 04 election.

Thoughts?