r/ethereum • u/EthereumDailyThread What's On Your Mind? • 5d ago
Daily General Discussion October 08, 2026
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u/lawfultots Moderator 4d ago
Hey random question from my friend's old dad. Anyone know about the DCent wallet app? He's using that for XRP and I had never heard of it so if it's shit I want to point him somewhere else
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u/ethdaily 4d ago
ETH Daily - 8th October ๐ฐ
-Gnosis integrates FCR.
-Derive V3 migration to Ethereum.
-Glamsterdam on Hoodi for 26 Oct.
-EIP-8288 path to PQ proofs.
-Hardhat v3.19.0 with Amsterdam support.
-Ethereum Institutional website refresh.
-Starknet considers becoming an L1.
-ZKsync Era increases its execution delay.
-Resolv introduces the CARRY RWA vault.
-Robinhood explores Stock Token linked to ETF.
-3JANE introduces credit scores.
Read more: https://ethdaily.io/gnosis-chain-integrates-fast-confirm-rule
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u/696_eth 4d ago
gm guys
been a while since I've been in here but I've been looking for some recent ETH bull thesis and I couldn't find anything on CT besides some posts from 2024 lol... so maybe there's one hidden in the previous dailies here, or someone can share one that they have readily available at hand๐thank you
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u/FreshMistletoe 4d ago
The bull thesis is BTC will go up and ETH is an alt and will go up too. ย And BTC and ETH seem to take turns each cycle and the last cycle was a disaster for ETH.
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u/696_eth 4d ago
eh im bearish on btc and + btc and eth re not correlated anymore, eth shit the bed last cycle so why would it do better this cycle, it never been the trend
thanks for the reply tho
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u/adraffy raffy.eth 4d ago
the ECDSA fear-mongering is retarded
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u/futurst 3d ago
It's not at all. It's the unknown unknowns that is scary in this situation. Before, you could plausibly say that something like this won't happen in our lifetime because any pattern in elliptic curve cryptography would be so complex that we couldn't possibly figure it out. Now.. I mean, a formulation of Navier Stokes has been solved, which is wild to me as someone who's done some CFD.
This new mathematical space means their could be potentially patterns in the math that no human could possibly grasp. So this FUD is actually more scary than quantum threats since we already know of Shor's and we can see the progress of quantum computers. With this? It could just be broken one day with no obvious fix.
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u/evm_lion 4d ago
Iโm thinking, if someone had the means and hardware available to crack a private key, what would be the optimal strategy?
Targeting a smaller wallet wouldnโt be economically rational, obviously. One could think that targeting a large one would lead to a hard fork, but how could that really fix anything? The attacker still has the key, and can just keep grabbing the funds. Somehow the funds must be secured by a different key, and the old owner must get this new key. But by definition of the tech, the only true way to prove ownership is by signing, and the address now has two signers.
Targeting the biggest address, the attacker must somehow manage to convert that into fiat without revealing identity, which also seems like a lost cause.
A single proven instance of such an attack would also affect everyone, as the security promise no longer holds. Going into bunker mode doesnโt change this.
This is meant more like a thought experiment, not to spread FUD. If cryptography is vulnerable before being improved, thereโs tons of other things to worry about anyways.
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u/Mr_Footies 4d ago
Step 1: Open massive shorts on every exchange
Step 2: Break the private keys of cold storage for massive wallets including, ETF custodians and exchange cold storage
Step 3: Market collapses and shorts start to print
Step 4: Can't log into exchanges to collect as they are now bankruptStep 5: Realise you should have opened ETF puts instead.
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u/edmundedgar reality.eth 4d ago
This doesn't work because crypto prices are a random number generator with no connection to whether the underlying blockchain actually works or not.
You'd open your massive shorts and then the Fed chairman would say "sometimes it snows on a Thursday" or Trump would announce the 483th peace deal with Iran and all your shorts would get liquidated.
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u/Mr_Footies 3d ago
Oh sweet summer child. Prices are controlled by whales, not random number generation.
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u/Stobie 4d ago
I think optimal strategy goes way beyond crypto. There's a much bigger network where everyone's exposed not just public keys but private keys since tradfi does that for some reason. Expect if it's possible there will be clearer warnings than JD concern. Like surely anthropic/spacex/openai is attempting such things with no guard rails before every release and would warn if it goes down, doesn't make sense for them to steal. But they are they ones with the infra to do it. If they steal maths progress as researches use the model they'll also be watching anyone making progress on these areas.
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u/Ok-Nectarine-6654 4d ago
As far as I understood Ethereum is moving to hash based security which seems much more secure from AI and quantum.
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u/Mr_Footies 4d ago
It also needs to move to privacy as default, if for nothing else to reduce the attack surface. Rather than nothing to hide nothing to fear, nothing to see nothing to attack.
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u/CoCleric 4d ago
I think itโs funny how Tom Lee puts out his monthly BMNR video and says the bull market has started which that very day we had the huge drop. Idk if itโs just coincidence or not but pretty funny timing
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u/Moschus11 4d ago
What frustrates me most about โbunker modeโ is that there is no great hardware wallet option out there. Why has nobody build a complete open-source hardware wallet for bunker mode? No fancy stuff, just small and sturdy for ice cold storage.
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u/eth10kIsFUD 4d ago
I think that's exactly what they are trying to build over here lol: https://freedomfactory.io/
not sure if it's open source, or safe, though. definitely not lindy yet11
u/MinimalGravitas 4d ago
From what I understand, 'bunker mode' is just what used to be called a 'cold wallet', i.e. an address that has only received crypto and never made a transaction.
That can be done with any software or hardware wallet, and if you aren't making any outgoing transactions then I'm not sure what advantage a hardware wallet would have, other than if your computer has malware on it or whatever.
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u/Moschus11 4d ago
I am currently still relying on my Ledger Nano S for cold storage. I do like the simplicity of it. Despite all the issues that Ledger has, there is still some lindy effect to be had. Also from my understanding if your home staking has been set up with said hw wallet, then there is no way around of unstaking and the staking again with the new setup.
If there was a immediate go-to solution I would have updated my cold storage setup long ago. But I still think there is no great alternative out there.
The gridplus lattice just looks off to me with this physically huge appearance. Maybe Trezor Safe?
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u/MinimalGravitas 4d ago
Wait, if you have a have a Ledger already can't you just use that to generate a new keypair for a new 'bunker'/cold wallet? As long as you keep the seed phrase written down somewhere for the address you're already using!
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u/Moschus11 4d ago
yes. but I want to move away from Ledger. Question is where to?
From what I understand Trezor has had very similar customer data leaks, the most serious one only a few weeks back. also they lean to be more open-source, but are not fully open-source by far.
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u/eth10kIsFUD 4d ago
Trezor has open sourced their hardware, firmware and software. What specific thing do you think they could still open source?https://github.com/orgs/trezor/repositories
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u/aurekt-hodlfinger 4d ago
For variety, fellow etherian u/haochizzle has reviewed some less known HW wallets over on youtube.
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u/haochizzle 3d ago
thank you for the shoutout ๐ฅฐ
My current recommendation would be the keycard shell alongside Ambire (in place of metamask or rabby). this setup absolutely crushes self-custody UX.[bunker mode not withstanding โ Iโm still assessing what the right move here is]
if youโre interested, I did a full review here! you can also get 5% off using my code 90SECONDS, which goes a long way to supporting my channel!
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u/ev1501 ETH Maxi ฮ 4d ago
Everyone was happy a couple of weeks ago and now they are sad. My money is on people being happy again in a few weeks. The human brain is funny aint it?
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u/aurekt-hodlfinger 4d ago
Also, there is supposedly an army of dip buyers waiting in the ranks, who missed the previous train and have been telling themselves to "buy when there is blood in the streets", but also not to "catch a falling knife". So not too worried just yet. A bit of ptsd is very understandable though.
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u/Itur_ad_Astra Crab High Priest 4d ago
I don't think it's gonna be just a few weeks.
Usually drops like these spook people enough for at least a few months.
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u/EthFan No flair till 5K Eth 4d ago
Is there a prevailing narrative around the sudden drop? Crypto's gonna crypto but I didn't think it would crypto this hard.
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u/AllCapNoBrake 4d ago
Extended BTC bear market. A guy posted a couple of weeks ago that 86k was going to be continually rejected..
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u/DiskFearless4448 4d ago
the lost opportunity cost might just be too much at this point. i dont know man. Do I give it through the year? i dont even know anymore lol
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u/WoodpeckerHorror3468 4d ago
Conspiracy theory:
Lee paid Drake to fud crypto so he could buy the last 100k cheap.
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u/offthewall1066 4d ago
One should always remember: eth PA is dogshit 95% of the time and we get like 10 good days a year. The magnitude of those 10 good days is all we got
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u/confusedguy1212 4d ago
We should probably pontificate some more about tech improvements while the ratio continues to bleed some more. Itโs fun to be back under .03 โฆ maybe we could try for under .02 this time!
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u/tokyo_guy375 4d ago
Thatโs what I am saying for years now. It is great that we improve tech wise. But it is not what should be the main focus to communicate publicly.
My company manufactures PVT heat pump systems. From a technological standpoint, these systems are highly advanced and significantly more efficient than conventional gas heating when it comes to energy conversion. However, when it comes to marketing to the mass market, this technological advantage is only part of the story. Very few customers buy such a system solely because of its higher efficiency or sophisticated technology. A much stronger message isย independence and cost certainty: with a PVT heat pump, a greater share of the energy required can be generated and used directly at the property itself. This reduces dependence on fossil fuels and their long-term, difficult-to-predict price fluctuations. So, technological progress is the foundation of my product โย but independence from energy prices is the stronger marketing argument.
All I wanna say is, if we donโt reach them emotionally we will have a hard time
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u/bananapizzaface 4d ago
Depends if you see Ethereum as needing to appeal to retail or if you believe like myself and many others that its main objective is to be the backbone at the institutional level.
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u/eth10kIsFUD 4d ago edited 4d ago
Hopefully the new drake take shakes life in eth development and we get Hegota much faster than expected.
getting Ethereum ready for Post Quantum and Post Ai is the new Merge.
Ethereum will get there first, and ETH will be the undisputed digital gold of the world.
We've got one shot at this. Honestly so exciting for the space.
One hell of a ride we are on friends.
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u/Jey_s_TeArS 4d ago
Remove the Tether,
MiCA now tells the weather,
You keep the Ether.
~Daily haiku until weโre at least at 0.178 on the ETH/BTC ratio or highest market cap
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u/adam1717 4d ago
Last chance to buy below 2500
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u/StEditiV 4d ago
Wait a day or two and buy below 2300 or even lower.
All greedy longs are going to get wiped before the next leg up.
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u/adam1717 4d ago
I agree that it is important that we do not get overleveraged, these pullbacks are necessary.
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u/RealArthurOK 4d ago
Can an artificial intelligence program really "break" block chain cryptography? I am seeing normies talk about this and I have no idea. If so this experiment may be over.ย
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u/Canadiens1993 4d ago
As I reflect on this, this does look to be a market overreaction. ย I suspect all of us have had the same concern over the last few years as weโve seen more advanced AI models being released. ย The market shouldโve priced that inโฆthe same way it should be concerned and pricing in the risk that AI hacks our tradfi bank accounts and wipes it clean with no trace whatsoever. ย Itโs the apocalyptic risk with AIโฆ
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u/Itur_ad_Astra Crab High Priest 4d ago
AI can eventually break anything.
Banks and fiat currency are not safer.
This FUD can very easily switch to FOMO... and it probably will, after a panic sell round.
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u/WoodpeckerHorror3468 4d ago
can AI break the upper $5000 limit of the crab range?
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u/evm_lion 4d ago
No, thatโs impossible. Not even super intelligence can break the fundamental laws of physics.
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u/makesnosenseatall 4d ago
Banks and fiat currency are safer in this regard. They are centralized. They can easily upgrade compared to blockchains. Also if a bank gets hacked, a hacker can't just steal all the money they have.
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u/ryan1064 4d ago
a test of 2500 is inevitable will it hold nobody knows
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u/thenamelessone7 4d ago edited 4d ago
This aged like milk. We always go up with btc with a lever of 1. And go down with bitcoin with a lever of 2
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u/Dontknowyet4real 4d ago
Ofc not. ETH only knows resistance, no support. Lol hilarious bs this whole "SpAcE".
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u/ryan1064 4d ago
ur a real stinker aren't ya?
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u/Dontknowyet4real 4d ago
Well on its way for sub 2400. 2500 didn't even made an effort to hold. If you by now cant admit this space has been taken over by manipulating institutions that hate crypto, i have no further advice for you.
Seems like a sick kind of joke btw approaching oct 10 and this price action. Exchanges and cZ all telling on X uptober blablabla, Yeah LOL.
Im so sick of being manipulated and lied to. Not only in crypto, this whole fckn world has become such an incredible shithole
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u/confusedguy1212 4d ago
I am in his camp too. Think Iโm over this for good.
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u/bananapizzaface 4d ago
How many months you going to say this? Just leave already. That was always allowed.
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u/Dontknowyet4real 4d ago
Ofc not. ETH only knows resistance, no support. Lol hilarious bs this whole "SpAcE".
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u/Itur_ad_Astra Crab High Priest 4d ago
The issue with "bunker mode" is that you can't participate in DeFi, you can't rely on L2s, and you can't stake. Right?
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u/makesnosenseatall 4d ago
You can technically just send staked tokens, lp tokens etc. to your bunker wallet.
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u/Itur_ad_Astra Crab High Priest 4d ago
Ah yes, protecting your 10 ETH wallet from quantum attack by relying on the tokens generated by a 10000 ETH wallet.
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u/risingtide556 4d ago
I think you still can, but have to be mindful of the amounts in your hot wallet; as Vitalik says even if encryption is broken it'd still need focused computation on specialist hardware to crack, so targeting the bigger fish is what makes more economic sense. Cold wallet receive only, hot wallet for playing, rotate often.
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u/imaybeslow 4d ago
Thats how I understand it. And it basically means I canโt use the network or my assets? Then whatโs the point?
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u/nonetherless325 4d ago
Starknet is considering becoming an L1 https://nitter.freedit.eu/Starknet/status/2108113391525204034
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u/haurog 4d ago
Becoming a successful zk rollup on Ethereum failed, because their approach was too clunky to attract developers and too distinct to attract many EVM users. Their pivot to become a bitcoin L2, however that should have worked technically, did not really attract any more users, even though they advertised as such at Ethereum only conferences?!? I am sure becoming their own L1 will solve all these issues. Third times the charm...
Their cryptography tech is amazing, no doubt, but their execution is very questionable to me.
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u/nonetherless325 4d ago
any clue on how their tech compares to what is planned for lean Ethereum?
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u/haurog 4d ago
This is a bit outside my comfort zone to answer fully, but I can add some differences and similarities I know about.
Starknet uses zk-starks to prove their blocks. This will also be used in lean Ethereum. They are post quantum secure and pretty neat.
For signatures, as far as I understand starknet uses ECDSA which is exactly what is discussed widely at the moment. So, from my very surface level view it does not seem to be safe to use after quantum computers. So here they have the same potential issues as (almost) any other blockchain. They have a roadmap, but I am unsure how far along they are. Other people might be better suited to answer that. Ethereum plans to use a hash based signature scheme in the future and all places where signatures are used the current ones should be replaced by these.
The virtual machine (VM). Starknet uses a different underlying VM than Ethereum. This means all contracts need to be recompiled, most probably rewritten to deploy there. Tooling was abysmal last time I looked many years ago. I am sure it has improved, but I would be surprised if they have better support than the Ethereum VM has. In my understanding, having their own VM was necessary many years ago to be able to prove blocks efficiently. Nowadays this seems to be possible even without a special VM. Ethereum can stay as it is. There is discussion for Ethereum to move over to a RISC-V VM. I am slightly biased for RISC-V, but in my understanding there it is not clear if enough people support such a move.
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u/hedgemagus 4d ago
Sigh
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u/tokyo_guy375 4d ago
This is also how I feel
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u/hedgemagus 4d ago
The sad part is I just wait for it to happen now
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u/bananapizzaface 4d ago
If you know it's going to happen, then you were shorting/sold your Eth, right? I mean if you're that certain on the direction of Eth, surely you're taking profit in that confidence, huh?
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u/hedgemagus 4d ago
I made some good money shorting Sundays for a while and I sold all of my unstaked ETH when it was last 3500. Donโt do this thing youโre trying to do lol
I also never said I know itโs going to happen, I said I wait for it. Iโm always hoping for and cheering to be wrong but Iโm pretty conditioned to this chart now
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u/lops21 4d ago
Honestly we are holding fairly well considering Tom Lee announced no more buys after 5%, AI breaking crypto FUD, rumors of Iran war restarting...
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u/Itur_ad_Astra Crab High Priest 4d ago
Ah yes, the comment I see at the beginning of every long downtrend.
(Not saying we'll have one, but it's insane how similar the comments are in each phase of the price cycle).
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u/bananapizzaface 4d ago
Yes, let's pile on to someone who is willing to look at the positives.
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u/hedgemagus 4d ago
Why are you all over this thread piling on anybody who says anything possibly negative? Relax brother
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u/CatsnotpillsCoaching 4d ago
My main question mark about the bunker stuff:
Isn't this kind of akin to a real prepper scenario where it's marginally better if you're prepared but you are still pretty much fucked?
If exposed public keys start getting exploited, not only does that mean the value of your coins is going to drop massively, trust in the network goes to zero etc, you'll also have much bigger issues because this will affect much more than a few blockchains.
It feels like the damage from people rushing to move funds will be bigger than from an actual break (I doubt it will happen in the way where it goes fast and catches everyone by surprise tbh)
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u/risingtide556 4d ago
It does seem like it yes. If focused computation can break public key encryption, then once Satoshi's coins start to move the market will crater. Only saving grace would be either a fast upgrade to hash-based accounts (but I understand coverage can't be complete) prior to this happening, or a post-fact hard-fork a la DAO hack to restore amounts, but the damage would already be done. Not reassuring imho
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u/Itur_ad_Astra Crab High Priest 4d ago
ALL HAIL THE ETERNAL CRAB
๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ฆ ๐ ๐ ๐
๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
$1000--------$2563--------$5000
2021----------2026----------โ
Tom Lee, working for the Crab since 2024
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u/haurog 4d ago edited 4d ago
This week we had the Glamsterdam upgrade on the Sepolia testnet. Terence from Prysm and Toni Wahrstรคtter from the EF each published their initial analysis.
It looks like the upgrade went very well. The network has become faster, meaning beacon block diffusion propagation in the network happens faster because beacon blocks now do not contain the execution part anymore. On average, the diffusion propagation of beacon blocks through the network happens about 3 times faster. The time for beacon blocks to be validated locally on the node and to become the new head of the chain the time dropped by almost factor of 10, even in the worst cases. This should make the network more robust.
On the execution side, Gas limits increased from 60M per block to 200M per block within 8 hours. Thanks to the improvements by client teams and some of the EIPs in the upgrade 4 of the 5 execution clients are faster in executing blocks. Or in other words, we have more tps without increasing the execution times on nodes. One exception is Besu, but there the execution times only increased by 10% or so. Still a lot of room for improvements, but quite ok.
In todays all core dev call, we expect a definitive date for the Glamsterdam upgrade on the Hoodi testnet. There was a date shared that the upgrade could be on October 27th. Not sure if that is still on the table. Afterwards, there is the Devcon conference in Mumbai, so if the upgrade does not happen before the end of October it might mover towards 2nd week of November. If all goes well, the Ethereum mainnet upgrade could happen about a month after Hoodi.
Sources:
Terences post: https://terencechain.com/writing/very-early-glamsterdam-scaling-results/
Tonis post: https://x.com/nero_eth/article/2107747999229051238
UPDATE: Hoodi upgrade has been set for October 26th 17:42 UTC
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u/bananapizzaface 4d ago
God I love to see how much better this network is getting and how strongly we're positioned for the future.
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u/alexiskef The significant owl hoots in the night ๐ฆ 4d ago
Thank you for another excellent update Haurog! One question: this is (probably, I am an old man who forgets things..๐ญ) the first time I see the word "diffusion" in these types of Ethereum-related posts. What do we mean by it?
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u/haurog 4d ago
Good point. Lets just say, I am not always very good in keeping to established definitions. I even sometimes used different definitions within research articles I wrote. Much the the dismay of my research colleagues back in the day. 'propagation' would have been the correct word to use. I will change that.
To be more accurate, diffusion is a statistical movement of objects in space or a medium, which normally means from a form of higher concentration in a single region until it reaches an even distribution throughout space. Qualitatively this fits how a new block moves from a single proposer through the whole network, but it actually is the wrong word to use as the mechanism in block propagation is different from a pure diffusion process, I think. The simple reason why I used the term diffusion is that it was an essential part of simulating charge transport in semiconductors on which I did research on for many years. That is why the word sprang to my mind while writing the post, without thinking too much about it.
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u/confusedguy1212 4d ago
Not to be a Debbie downer but weโre going to have all of these efficiency upgrades straight into the end or loss of interest in the space all together.
Itโs like building and tweaking the worldโs largest and best machine only for it to sit unused.
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u/bananapizzaface 4d ago
All you are is a downer. Ethereum has experienced massive growth and is by and far the largest development in this space. Y'all can complain about price all you want, but to misunderstand the entire project, its growth, its current uses, and its potential, I just ask... why are you here if you carry this much cynicism?
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u/haurog 4d ago
I am not sure I properly understand what your are hinting at. Ethereum blocks have been full for over 6 years now, despite increasing the average gas per block by about a factor of 3-4 in that time. The stepwise doubling over the last 2 years has instantly been eaten away by demand at every step. If one includes the blob space in this calculation, mainnet has increased the supply even more overall and blocks are still full. Sure prices moved to lower levels compared to what we had in 2021/2022, but I consider this a plus from the point of view of the apps and users. Prices of 2021/2022 where unsustainable in the long term for Ethereum.
The whole Ethereum ecosystem even increased the supply massively and the actual demand in tps increased by a factor of 100-1000 in the last 5-6 years. This makes it obvious that block space demand is there. Increasing the gas limit on mainnet makes it possible for more of this demand to move back to Ethereum mainnet.
There are also some indications that even just a slight change in demand will spike gas prices massively at the moment, which is another indication that currently the demand is pretty much at the limit of what Ethereum can deliver. If Ethereum mainnet throughput is increased by a large factor within a few hours, I do not expect this to be filled immediately, but I definitely see more people moving back to Ethereum over time because of that. A large increase might take some weeks or months to be filled, but over long enough time I do not see any issue with demand at the moment.
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u/benido2030 4d ago
So what do you think about the Justin Drake tweet? (Link for those who haven't read it yet)
From my experience JD is always rather careful and thoughtful when he posts. He gets a lot of flag (I don't mean Dankrad) which surprises me... so is this his way of telling us he knows stuff others don't? Is the PQ race heating up?
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u/alexiskef The significant owl hoots in the night ๐ฆ 4d ago
I really like and respect JD. Probably my favorite Ethereum researcher. Having said that, I wouldn't call him "carefull and thoughtful" whenever he publicly syas something about Ethereum. Notice that I did not quote your "posts", because I am referring to his podcast appearances (mainly) in Bankless.. Remember those pre-burn price predictions??
Still, I'll repeat it: huge โค๏ธ for the guy!
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u/Alphaboy323 4d ago
i don't read it as evidence of a break today. i read it as a warning to plan migrations before they become urgent. i work on starknet, so biased, but eli teasing starknet as an L1 at Token2049 today, and discussing it on the Rollup podcast, made the bunker mode question concrete for me. STARK proofs are hash-based and accounts can change signature schemes. ethereum settlement is still a dependency while starknet is an L2. if the chain is the bunker, what would you want to see upgraded before calling it ready?
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u/haurog 4d ago edited 4d ago
The basic issue is, that there is very little evidence for any of his
claimsspeculation. He mentions there could be good arguments why there is no evidence. He mentions that he witnessed first hand that the US government censors certain cryptanalysis results. He is talking about not being allowed to publish the faster quantum computer algorithm last spring with the google team.He then mentions several examples of assumptions long assumed to be true in the math community without their being an actual general proof:
The first example is that there was an assumption that integer multiplication can only be done with a minimal set of calculation steps (simplifying here...). OpenAI, with the use of their in house non-public model, now found an algorithm that does this with slightly fewer steps than the assumed lower limit. The actual improvement is only minuscule though. One number changed from 1 (the old assumption) to 1-1.6E-55. If you are not familiar with that notation, 1 changed to 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999837. I might be off by on or two 9s. We can all agree it is smaller than 1, so the general assumption of it being 1 or larger is violated, but it still is 1 for all practical purposes. The coming months will tell if the lower boundary can be moved any lower meaningfully.
The other example, the 3SUM one, was published by well known mathematicians which used Claude to find their new algorithm. There they found a way that the algorithm is slightly faster as well. They improved one number from 2 to 1.992, or in O notation from O(n2 ) to O(n1.992 ). A larger improvement than the previous example.
Also check my recent post on autoresearch which goes in a similar direction of accelerating development in computational science.
By the way, the second example has been done outside of companies, at two universities. I would be surprised if government entities manage to censor results there as efficiently as in large corporations. The autoresearch results also show that public, collaborative research yields much better results than closed research in companies, as shown in the google example. So, not too sure I would put too much weight on the censorship by government argument in his post. It sure happens, but in my current view, it might not be that relevant in this case.
The above examples show that there is an acceleration in at least certain fields of math and computational science. Going from this to the currently used cryptography being insecure is quite a large step. Not something that I expect to happen overnight. And as argued above, something that I expect to happen at least partially in public with maybe some delay. One has to be aware of the potential problem, but it is not a problem yet, and might never be, before Ethereum switches to a different cryptographical approach with leanVM.
I think it is personally a good idea to think about what to do in a worst case scenario, but it is not that I see a need for me to take action right now. One can start to think about which positions can easily be moved to a new, unused address and which ones would need to be withdrawn first with maybe an additional delay. But other than that I do not see any cause to action right now. If you are sitting on millions of dollars of coins on a highly used address, it is a good idea to move them to a separate address anyway, as any user error in signing might drain them.
Interestingly, there was a talk at Devcon SEA in 2024 by Barry Whitehat, a cryptographer, and he mentions that AI will be more dangerous for cryptography than quantum computers. Here is a link with the timestamp: https://youtu.be/5hDj0TB8s18?si=YykUZdyTOWAStYCU&t=514.
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u/r2002 4d ago
Is it true that while most of Ethereum's vulnerability can be addressed, Solana has a much tougher time? Solana's CTO said that's not true on X and got roasted.
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u/haurog 4d ago
I have not seen the post and don't care enough to search for it, but I think the roasters have a point. The main problem is that switching the signature scheme from ECDSA to anything else means the signatures become much larger. For example, all post quantum signature schemes are around a factor of 10 larger. If the percentage of signatures taking up a block I have found are correct, then if one would want to keep the same tps as today, one would have to increase the block size by a factor of 2. In my understanding Solana is running at the technical limit already, so they would have to reduce the throughput by 2 to upgrade the signature scheme. They also cannot use tricks that Ethereum is planning to use by aggregating all signatures in a block into a single STARK proof. This allows Ethereum to even increase the throughput. As far as I see, Solana does not have any margins left to create an additional STARK proof. They would have to sacrifice throughput, or latency for it. Ethereum can sell the such an upgrade as an actual improvement, whereas for Solana, the upgrade is most probably a downgrade for many aspects of the Network.
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u/r2002 4d ago
Thank you for sharing that insight. Your comment does make me feel better about JD's announcement. While Ethereum has a challenging road ahead of us, at least it's not as tough as Solana's or Bitcoin's.
I found the post and the responses:
https://x.com/jacobvcreech/status/2108042644819427521
Unlike many networks, Solana users don't need to go into "bunker mode" ahead of an accelerated quantum timeline or classical attack provided by AI.
Solana uses Ed25519, where each signing key is derived by hashing a secret seed. Breaking the curve, whether by a quantum computer or a classical attack, would expose the derived key, but not the seed, and seeds are never exposed onchain. With a one-time network upgrade, rightful owners could prove knowledge of their seed using a hash-based proof and move their accounts to a safe signature scheme. A working proof of concept already exists: https://github.com/anza-xyz/cryptography/tree/master/experimental/ed25519-pokos.
Solana remains secure today and has a defined path forward.
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u/haurog 4d ago
His answer is not wrong, he just does not answer anything that relates to Justin Drakes post. EdDSA used by solana and ECDSA used by many other chains are in my view essentially the same with respect to a speculated AI speed up of brute forcing algorithms. Also his whole talk about the seed phrase is exactly the same as for Ethereum. So, he more or less used a lot of words to say that any issues regarding the signature scheme used would impact them the same as Ethereum. But somehow he tried to say the opposite by using a lot of big words, to confuse people. The state of solana people is always a sight to behold. Intellectual honesty is not something that is held in high regards there.
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u/Canadiens1993 4d ago
What about validators? The staked ETH have an associated public and private keyโฆwould that be considered a โhighly used addressesโ subject to exploit?
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u/Red_Corneas Capitulated in February, 2026 4d ago
I'd also like to know the answer to this.
I am guessing if the public key could be reversed engineered back to the 24 word mnemonic, the worst that could happen is someone could spin up a validator with the same private keys resulting in slashing / forced exit / whatever.
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u/haurog 4d ago
Going from Public key to private key is a different problem than going from public key to mnemonic. Getting to a mnemonic means that one has to somehow find a way to reverse cryptographic hashes. For going from public key to private key, there are known algorithms which makes brute forcing easier, like Pollard's kangaroo algorithm. One can expect that there exist algorithm which makes this even easier. But as said in my other post a 'simple' 1000 times improvement does not endanger any cryptography used in Ethereum. One would need a 10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 times improvement (I might be off by a few zeroes). That is a mindboggingly large number.
Sure, if we speculate about potential failures of the cryptography, then can we also speculate about breaking hashes directly, but there is even less evidence of this being possible. The argument I read often is that cryptographic hashes inherently have a smaller attack surface than reversing a public to a private key. For hashes even quantum computers do not help to meaningfully speed up the attack speed. And in my understanding there is no known classical algorithm which can speed up this process at all. Plain brute forcing is the only way.
As always, I am not cryptographer, this is just my understanding of the problem.
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u/haurog 4d ago
As said, I do not consider doing anything at the moment. As far as I see, people will lose more funds by overreacting (overrotating) than to any breach of assumptions in the cryptography.
And just to say, all of the following is under the assumption that somehow calculating the private key from the public key should be possible in the future. That is a big IF. My napkin math tells me we need about a 55 orders of magnitude speed up in the algorithm to brute force the private key from a known public key (not the hash of the public key, which is the address) for a 32 ETH validator. Even if we get a 1000 times speedup in such an algorithm, which would be massive, we are still 52 orders of magnitude away from such an attack being economically feasible. Validators with 2048 ETH are a juicier target, but instead of needing a 55 order of magnitude improvement they need a 53 order of magnitude improvement in the brute force algorithm to be economically feasible. In my view 55 and 53 are pretty much the same number.
After all these caveats I will try to answer your question. As far as I see validators will have two issues:
- validating key. This is the key with which your validator regularly signs attestations.
- Withdrawal address key, this is the address your validator sends funds to in case of partial or full withdrawal.
If there is a breach in the cryptography, the first one is an issue. You need to sign an attestations per epoch (6.4 minutes), so impossible to keep the public key hidden. An attacker cannot do much with the private key though. At most, they could run another validator with the calculated private key and get you slashed. They also could withdraw the funds to the withdrawal address. If the withdrawal address already has a the public key disclosed then the attacker would be better to brute force the withdrawal address directly.
The withdrawal address can be secured by just never initiating any transaction from it. Not very practical, but definitely doable. If one already has initiated transactions away from that address one could exit and reenter with a new, unused withdrawal address set. One could also startup a new validator with an unused withdrawal address and then later just consolidate all validators on this new one.
And just to reiterate, there is nothing I consider doing at the moment. I personally expect many smaller canaries going off before we actually break anything crucial. For example there is competition called BTCpuzzle. You can earn over 7 BTC if you manage to find a speedup in the current brute forcing algorithm by a factor of 4. The exact economics is a bit more involved, but in the end we would see many of these BTC puzzles to be solved in quick succession. The payout increases slightly for every speed up doubling you find. No puzzle has been solved in the last 1.5 years, which means there hasn't been any speedup found. That is one thing I passively monitor from time to time.
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u/labrav 4d ago edited 4d ago
Tom Lee has said he sticks to his stated limit of buying no more than 5% of eth supply for Bitmine. I think this might be bearish in the short run (less demand week-by-week), indeed this may have been one of the causes of the recent drop, but it is bullish in the long run:
1/ less of a fear of the price (or even governance) becoming overly dependent on a superwhale holding 8-10-12-15% of eth by jittery institutional investors;
2/ if there is more demand for BNMR, by now there are many other, boomer- and institution-friendly ways to invest into eth (like ETFs), and if there is a big specific demand for investing into eth by way of DATs, new ones will certainly emerge again.
https://x.com/IamSigma007/status/2107902284264833215
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u/bananapizzaface 4d ago
It could be the signal to other whales that the accumulation phase is close to being done and all the heavy price suppression will stop thereby creating the face melting rise that Lee has been predicting for years. One can hope.
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u/LogrisTheBard 4d ago
Now we just need Lubin to actually start accumulating their 5%.
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u/somedaysitsdark 4d ago
The silver lining is they can go full swing into pumping their bags once they are done accumulating.
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u/Itur_ad_Astra Crab High Priest 4d ago
It's strange that he decided to nuke his own bags by stating for three months straight that the limit might be increased, only for then for him to say that he'll stay at 5%.
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u/WoodpeckerHorror3468 4d ago
Best case would be he quits BMNR and starts another DAT that then builds 5% too. and so on. but not counting on it lol
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u/Stobie 5d ago
Make a safe or some proxy / multisig with single signer, and start using as your main account. That address holds all your stuff, say dozen defi positions. Then you can change signer address easily without moving everything. You can keep same mnemonic you're protecting, just keep going 1 place deeper. If any of the quantum or curve concerns actually become likely you're ready in a single simple tx to be safe, maybe you'll want to bump it each week, or have a system to auto bump each tx.
Lots of bonuses too, like SI proposer with you as signer is very convenient and lets you work with agent without leaking keys.
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u/WoodpeckerHorror3468 5d ago
I'm out for now on BTC dropping below my mental stop at $83k
But for a bit of perspective, a 10+% pullback is not uncommon in a crypto bull market.
This "dump" is low to normal volume and the summer's lows are behind and below us.
Doomers can get a pass if volume picks up and we keep going down but that's not where we are today
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u/Elendron 4d ago
Been hearing that volume is low ever since we started pumping from the lows. ETH pumped 85%, BTC 50%, plenty of alts 100% and over. Apart from showing more likelihood of sustained moves, I'm not sure how much volume really matters, but I've also never read much about the ins and outs of volume!
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u/WoodpeckerHorror3468 5d ago
Sold my ETH and BTC when this stop hit, was holding both 50/50.
Happy to get whipsawed if 83k is regained on volume.
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u/bananapizzaface 4d ago
Why are you responding to your own comments?
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u/WoodpeckerHorror3468 4d ago
after writing i saw it wasn't clear that is also applied to ETH
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u/bananapizzaface 4d ago
Not a fan of the edit button?
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u/WoodpeckerHorror3468 4d ago
i'm neutral towards it. i can use it or not use it as the mood takes me.
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u/QueasilyRelieved 5d ago
What's the volume looking like on ETH right now, still skimming along the bottom of the pool?
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โข
u/Tricky_Troll Public Goods are Good ๐ฑ 4d ago
Tricky's Daily Doots #1,619
Yesterday's Daily 07/10/2026
Previous Daily Doots
u/robmacca shares Justin Drake's calm warning of precautions which may be best taken. โ ๏ธ
-u/FoucaultCareofSelf thinks about the two open questions which will decide how well ETH performs. ๐ค
u/ethdaily delivers the daily ETH news. ๐ฐ