Following yesterday's loss against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, Sarkisian as a coach has now been involved in three instances where an unranked team upset an AP ranked number one team since 2000.

In Chronological Order:

2026 #1 Texas vs Oklahoma (24-27) -- HC of Texas

2024 #1 Alabama @ Vanderbilt (35-40)

2021 #1 Alabama @ Texas A&M (38-41)

2008 #1 USC @ Oregon State (21-27) -- OC of USC

2007 Arkansas @ #1 LSU (50-48) (3OT)

2007 Illinois @ #1 Ohio State (28-21)

2007 Stanford @ #1 USC (24-23) -- OC of USC

2002 #1 Oklahoma @ Texas A&M (30-26)

#1 ranked AP Poll teams have been upset by a ranked football team 41 times in the history of the poll.

*edit -- USC was #2 in the AP poll in 2007. They were #1 in the coaches poll, not AP. Sorry, saw it on Facebook first and decided to post it without a lot of factchecking.

JIMBO'S INFERNO - WEEK 6

(I'm considering not doing the graphic anymore since it's so sloppy and tedious to put together, let me know if you actually look at it.)

EXPLANATION

There are seven levels of Jimbo's Inferno:

1. LIMBO - Safe for now, but not everyone is content. Keeping their job outside of a major collapse.
2. RISING - Questions are starting to be asked. Improvement needs to be made, but coach is still safe unless things go way south.
3. CRITICAL - The tenure is at a crossroads. Continued underperformance could put coach's job in danger.
4. HOT - The possibility of a firing has become real. Coach must hit key benchmarks or risk being fired.
5. SCORCHING - Coach is on pace to be fired. A turnaround must be made to cool the temperature.
6. HELL - Unless a significant turnaround is made, this position will be open at the end of the season.
7. THE VOID - The point of no return. At this point, there is nothing coach can do to save his job. Expect a firing imminently.

There are also a few tags that coaches can have:

• RETIREMENT WATCH [R] - for coaches that are in the tier they are because they could plausibly retire after the season.
• DOLLAR SIGN [$] - for coaches that have such an astronomically-high buyout that could prevent a firing
• QUESTION MARK [?] - for coaches that inexplicably still have their job, despite meeting a defined set of criteria that suggest they should have been fired a long time ago. (COMING SOON)

Jimbo's Inferno takes into account team performance, coach behavior and public image, as well as any public statements made by administrators or credible reports that come out.

AUTHOR'S NOTE

Hey. What's up. We're back on schedule guys.

I don't understand what this college football season is. Who is good? Who is bad? What is the SEC? What is pass interference? Why is Jeremiah Smith so good?

Also, you might have noticed the new tag that is coming soon. That's the question mark. We're starting to get to the point where some coaches are overstaying their welcome when they should have been fired a long time ago. The question mark will be for those coaches that shouldn't have a job, but for some reason still do.

But I know the one problem that's going to come up when I fully implement it - someone from every single fanbase is going to go to the comments after their team lost one bad game and say "WHY DOESN'T OUR HEAD COACH HAVE THE QUESTION MARK HE'S SO BAD HE SHOULD BE FIRED" which is why I'm working on a hard defined set of statistical criteria that coaches must meet before they can be eligible for the question mark.

THE LES MILES AWARD

An award (?) given weekly to the coach that puts up the most inexplicable, unimaginable, downright stupid coaching job. It may or may not have cost his team a win, and it may or may not go to someone who isn't anywhere close to the Inferno.

Past winners:

• Week 0: Dave Doeren, NC State
• Week 1: Greg Schiano, Rutgers
• Week 2: Ryan Day, Ohio State
• Week 3: Dave Doeren, NC State
• Week 4: Shane Beamer, South Carolina
• Week 5: Co-winners - Tyson Summers, Colorado State DC & unidentified Colorado staffer

I can't give this award to a player or an officiating crew, so that leaves a pretty obvious winner for this week.

Steve Sarkisian. You call the plays, brother. There is no one to blame for your disastrous offensive output but you. Not to mention you have completely botched the development of your golden goose quarterback whose last name is literally MANNING.

TATHAN'S SECTION

Former Ohio State and Miami and UNLV quarterback and wide receiver Tate Martell is very excited to show you the players he has destined to hell this week:

• Kyle Olson's officiating crew - Breaking the rules for this one. This is the crew the officiated the UGA-Bama game, and wow they were awful. The missed defensive pass interference and the overturned interception that went against Alabama are going to be the biggest talking points, but they missed a NUMBER of holds on the Tide and blew so, so many other calls, to the point where it looked like the lights were far too bright for them. This crew needs to be investigated and ideally taken off the road for the season.
• Alabama CB Dijon Lee, Jr. - This is a showing worthy of being removed from scholarship. Georgia spent the majority of the night picking on Lee, and for good reason, because he was atrocious. He was either burnt toast or committing DPI. He must have known how bad of a night he had, because with two minutes left and needing just one more stop to get the ball back, he lost his composure and punched a Georgia player, costing his team 15 yards and the game. Nice one, Djion.
• Texas QB Arch Manning - It's a shame, because Arch had a really, really impressive game-tying drive in the fourth quarter. But he's here because sandwiched between that drive were two Club Supremes With Extra Hot Peppers And Mayo that directly cost Texas a win. It's amazing how he hasn't developed one bit since arriving in Austin.
• Oregon QB Dylan Raiola - Patrick Mahomes would never get benched for Brock Thomas.
• Every Ohio State player not named Jeremiah Smith because what the hell was that?
• Atlanta Falcons QB Tua Tagovailoa - Least surprising game-ending interception of all time, dude your brain is applesauce just retire please.

JIMBO'S INFERNO

If it feels crowded this week, just remember there are 138 coaches eligible for this list.

Off the list: Barry Odom, Purdue; Ryan Beard, Coastal Carolina; Brent Venables, Oklahoma

LIMBO

• Fran Brown, Syracuse (-) - Malachi Nelson did an admirable job, but there are so many more issues with Syracuse than just their quarterback. I hope Fran gets it together because he seems like a great dude and a great coach, but man...
• Luke Fickell, Wisconsin (-) - Off this past week, but still in the process of coaching his way off this list. Let's see what happens against UCLA.
• Lance Leipold, Kansas (NEW) - Coming off two straight 5-7 seasons and starting this year 2-3, Leipold is no longer safe as the Kansas head coach. Yes, Kansas is terrible historically, but they have the resources to compete with the right people.
• Dave Aranda, Baylor (-) - The Revivalry is this weekend. Baylor is looking good this year. With another win or two, Aranda will be off this list.
• [$] Brent Key, Georgia Tech (▲) - Beat previously undefeated Duke. How?
• Tavita Pritchard, Stanford (NEW) - Stanford University is not serious about fielding a competitive college football program so it's going to be hard for the head coach to win games no matter who it is. But in their four losses, Stanford has scored 6, 7, 3, and 7. That's really bad.

RISING

• Josh Heupel, Tennessee (NEW) - Well. Heupel's not in danger of losing his job anytime soon, but this is kind of an inflection point for him at Tennessee. This team ain't great. And we know Tennessee can be great - they were the number one team in the nation back in 2022. But this quarterback shuffle isn't helping anyone right now, and almost losing to Arkansas of all teams is inexcusable.
• Kyle Whittingham, Michigan (-) - Off this past week. Clearly still believes in Jason Beck and Bryce Underwood. If that backfires...
• Ryan Silverfield, Arkansas (-) - Coward.
• Tosh Lupoi, California (▲) - Great win over Virginia Tech. Does this mean you're starting to get things on the right track now?
• Bronco Mendenhall, Utah State (-) - They beat Washington State. That is all you need to know. Do not look at Grady Brosterhous' numbers.
• Charles Kelly, Jacksonville State (-) - Cam Creel is going to look so good at LSU next year

CRITICAL

• [$] Mike Elko, Texas A&M (NEW) - It's one thing to just be bad; don't call out TexAgs. Why would you call out TexAgs.
• Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati (-) - Also off this week.
• Bill O'Brien, Boston College (-) - Also also off this week.
• Dell McGee, Georgia State (▲) - Also also also off this week man where is everyone?
• Jeff Choate, Nevada (▲) - I also don't have a comment for Choate because Nevada won and they beat a really awful team, sorry.

HOT

• [$] Steve Sarkisian, Texas (NEW) - Before you chastise me in the comments, just hear me out for a second. Losing to this Oklahoma team is already embarrassing enough. Losing to this Oklahoma team with an anemic offense and a quarterback that hasn't developed at all is even worse. But I wanted to see what Sark said in his postgame presser when he was inevitably asked about whether or not he will give up offensive playcalling. Based on where he's placed right now, you can probably guess what his answer was.
• [$] Dabo Swinney, Clemson (-) - Also off this week, thankfully.
• Jedd Fisch, Washington (▼) - Wow, you suck.
• Sonny Dykes, TCU (-) - Dude, did anyone play football this weekend?
• [R] Bill Belichick, North Carolina (▲) - Bill Belichick did. And he picked up his first Top 25 win of his tenure. I don't think this is a turning point, but man still congratulations.
• Clay Helton, Georgia Southern (-) - Respectable loss to an undefeated James Madison team. Surely this will be a great conference series going forward.
• Dowell Loggains, Appalachian State (NEW) - Oh my god I almost just died. A robber just came into my house with a loaded gun and aimed at me. Luckily, the Old Dominion-Appalachian State game was playing on the TV. He started watching and decided to shoot himself instead. Thank god 🙏❤️

SCORCHING

• [$] Lincoln Riley, USC (▲) - "r/BrandNewSentence: Lincoln Riley completely outcoached his opponent" - u/No_Preparation2766
• Bryant Vincent, UL Monroe (▼) - Every opponent has outcoached Bryant Vincent. I could probably outcoach Bryant Vincent.
• Timmy Chang, Hawaii (▼) - What... happened?

HELL

• [$] Greg Schiano, Rutgers (-) - Did not play this weekend. Praise Jesus 🙏🙌
• [$/R] Deion Sanders, Colorado (-) - I can see Deion being moved down a tier if things keep going the way they're going.
• Dave Doeren, NC State (▼) - NC State fans, it might finally be your year...
• Phil Longo, Sam Houston State (-) - LOL
• Tim Albin, Charlotte (-) - Wow, they've become the American's personal punching bag. Albin is so getting fired this year.
• Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee (-) - No game this week, no change this week.

THE VOID

• Mike Norvell, Florida State - After the first quarter it looked plausible that Mike Norvell could save his job. Hahaaaa...
• Mike Locksley, Maryland - Put up more of a fight than I thought they were going to, but that was more Ohio State's idiocy keeping you in the game than it was you actually being good.
• Jay Sawvel, Wyoming - Wait, you... won? Well, good job. You're still getting fired.
• Shane Beamer, South Carolina - What

CONCLUSION

i'm exhausted see you guys next week

Some important assumptions made:

Results are normalized to #1 team at 2100 elo and average to 1500 elo (represents 97% winrate for #1 team to beat an average team) at each pass

Game results are time-independent, so it doesn't matter when a game was played it is valued the same. Each game is entered altogether doing elo updates, and reran until a steady state is reached (about 85 iterations). This is not how elo is normally used, but I've done it here to instead of making a predictive metric to make one representing the value in the body of work. By doing many passes, the body of work your opponents have gets stronger consideration regardless of when the games were played. So a week 1 win against a team that ends up being great is just as valuable as winning against them in the last week, an arguable flaw of typical elo calculations.

To prevent runaway elo from lossless teams since multiple passes are being done, a phantom drawn game is added to each team's results.

Value of a win/loss can be increased by having a higher margin of victory, scaling logarithmically.

No home field advantage is assumed in this analysis, even though there is one in reality.

Interesting facts about these results:

LSU at #22 is the same as the AP poll, to many people's dismay at a 2-loss team.
5-1 Alabama is ranked 2nd.
SMU at #56 instead of AP's #24.

The Tank Job of the Week is an award for the FBS team that did the best job of humiliating itself over the weekend. Whether they blew a large lead, choked away a spot in the limelight, lost a game they had absolutely no right losing, or completely screwed everything on a last second blunder, the TJOTW winner sets the gold standard in college football misery

Previous Winners
Week 0: TCU Horned Frogs (North Carolina 15-10)
Week 1: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Massachusetts 37-21)
Week 2: Oregon Ducks (Oklahoma State 39-31)
Week 3: NC State Wolfpack (lost to Vanderbilt 35-31)
Week 4: Penn State Nittany Lions (lost to Wisconsin 24-20)
Week 5: Florida Gators (lost to Missouri 45-17)

LAST WEEK: When the votes first started coming in, they almost were all for South Carolina’s loss to Kentucky and built up a sizeable lead.  But- and stop me if you’ve heard this one before- Carolina’s lead didn’t hold, and by the end it was a resounding victory for Florida and their “back” status being completely dismantled by Mizzou.  Also of note is Montana State nearly matching the Gamecocks total as a write-in, which I kinda figured what happened.  Lets be honest- if the Bobcats were an FBS team, especially a top-ranked one, and had done what they did to Idaho, they would instantly be in the conversation for the #1 Tank Job of All Time.

 As for this edition, Week Six has always been somewhat of a gala week for TJOTW.   Just the last three years alone have been Penn State’s era-ending shocker to UCLA, Alabama’s downfall to Vanderbilt, and Mario Cristobal’s ill-fated decision to run the ball one last time in a game he’d already won.  And while we may not have anything quite approaching Cristobal’s blunder (probably because Miami wisely took the week off), this year is no exception- we are eating well with ELEVEN nominees lined up. 

HONORABLE MENTIONS
-      Nebraska being unable to hold a lead against Indiana isn’t even mentionable in a vacuum, but it is the Huskers thirty-second straight ranked loss.  Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you look at it) circumstances mean they wont get a chance to break that streak next week either.
-      Pitt’s offense sputtered down the stretch to lose their undefeated season to North Carolina and give Bill Bellicheck his first ever ranked win. 
-      Minnesota got splattered by Purdue but Purdue might actually be good now and that felt really weird to type.
-      North Dakota State coughed up three turnovers and suffered their first loss as an FBS team to UNLV.
-      Tennessee tried very very hard to convince everyone they might lose to Arkansas, but couldn’t quite commit to the bit.
-      Illinois gacked up a 17-0 lead to Michigan State, but salvaged it in overtime when Sparty’s 2-point conversion play fell apart.
-      Appalachian State were 8-point favorites to Old Dominion, led 3-2 (!) in the fourth, then gave up a Monarch touchdown to lose and had to watch ODU’s coach slide down their mud-soaked hill.
-      And of course, the Philadelphia Eagles.

NOTE: For ease of counting, please use carats to make your vote, like this: <Team>.  Thank you for participating!

And now, the Week Six nominees are…

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (lost to Georgia 20-17)
It was another fun UGA/Bama game that was shaping up for a potential epic finish, so that abrupt ending really felt like a, well, slap in the face.

DUKE BLUE DEVILS (lost to Georgia Tech 28-25)
The Devils went down to Georgia, they were looking to stay undefeated against a Georgia Tech team that hadn’t looked good at all so far this year.  While Johnny didn’t bring his fiddle, the Jackets did bring their offense, and rolled out to a 21-10 lead early in the third quarter.  Duke did fight back to take the lead with two minutes left, but Georgia Tech quickly responded.   The Blue Devils had one last chance to force overtime, but the kick was shanked, and the Devils bowed their head cause they knew that they’d been beat.

FLORIDA GATORS (lost to South Carolina 38-19)
Its not too often you see the top two TJOTW vote getters in the previous week face off!  And both teams went about doing their hardest to confirm that ya’ll made the right call, with Florida coughing up three turnovers and LaNorris Sellers popping off for four Gamecock touchdowns, and for once, South Carolina didn’t blow a big lead.  To steal a line from a Carolina fan in a Discord chat- the Gators got turned into wallets.

FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (lost to Louisville 44-20)
With 11:00 left in the first half Florida State had a 14-0 lead, the ball, and a first and goal at the Louisville 10 to make it a three score game.  Four tries, and the Noles couldn’t punch it in.  The very next play, Louisville’s Isaac Brown scampered for 97-yards down the sideline, and things only got worse from there, with Louisville outscoring Florida State 37-6 the rest of the way, rolling for almost 540 yards of offense in the process.  Seats are becoming nuclear-hot in Tallahassee, just in time to tangle with Miami.  Fun!

LSU TIGERS (lost to Kentucky 35-34)
To their coach’s credit, they were worried about potentially overlooking the Cats, considering they manufactured a fake quote by UK quarterback Kenny Minchey to drum up motivation.  Unfortunately for the Tigers, the quote about having not played a team and O-Line like Kentucky’s turned out to be kinda true, and the Wildcats were able to match LSU blow for blow, even if it did take them three tries to pull off the tying field goal down the stretch.  Then in OT, Kentucky did the same thing they did last week, and became the first team in FBS history to win back to back games in overtime by 1 point.

MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD (lost to Coastal Carolina 27-21)
Last week I got some deserved flack for not fully nominating Texas State for having 300 yards more than a mumps-ridden SDSU and still managing to find a way to lose.   Well, Marshall only had 200 yards more than the Chanticleers, but found themselves down 27-0 thanks in no small part to a whopping six turnovers.  The Herd did try to come back and cut the deficit to six after the onside kick worked once, but it didn’t the second time and CCU was able to run out the clock.

OREGON DUCKS (lost to UCLA 17-15)
The Ducks were 11-point favorites in this rematch of playoff coaches, if not teams.  But between a miserable first half passing performance (5/15 for 36 yards), an unbelievable SEVEN turnovers, two to one in time of possession, and two botched two point conversions making up the (somehow small after all that) difference, it all spelled doom and now Oregon’s unranked for the first time in four years.

TEXAS LONGHORNS (lost to Oklahoma 27-24)
The entire week leading up to the RRSO all anyone heard was Texas fans preening over how they hadn’t allowed a touchdown against Oklahoma in the last two contests.  Well, they allowed three this time- two of which they directly handed to the Sooners themselves via a blocked punt and a pick six.   And then a second interception to set up the winning Sooner field goal.  Its just the eighth time in history an unranked team has knocked off the #1.

TOLEDO ROCKETS (lost to Buffalo 23-8)
“Toledoing” needs to be a verb, meaning “to squander a promising nonconference start by consistently losing conference games you have no right to.”   To use in a sentence “Toledo would have way more conference championships right now if they didn’t keep Toledoing games to teams like Buffalo, where the Rockets were a 19-point favorite but let the Bulls get out to a 16-0 lead thanks to three turnovers and a whopping 15 penalties for 137 yards.”  A bit of a run-on but you get the point.

VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (lost to California 25-20)
The Hokies were coming off a heartbreaking FG perspective loss to Pitt and were 12-point favorites.  Cal was lucky they only lost by 8 to UNLV.  The ending got a bit crazy- Cal took the lead with four minutes left, but VT responded a couple minutes later, only for Cal to punch in the winning touchdown with just 18 seconds left.   VT actually managed to drive down to the Cal 7, but the final play was knocked away to preserve the upset.

WASHINGTON HUSKIES (lost to Iowa 41-24)
This wasn’t so much a game as it was a Friday Night Humiliation Ritual.  Between the Iowa fan takeover, the 27-0 first half deficit, the hilariously wide-open Hawkeye receivers, the negative three rushing yards, the Husky celebration on a walkoff TD that meant they only lost by 17, and Jedd Fisch admitting his own wife prefers Kirk Ferentz as a coach to him, it was a very pathetic night in the Emerald City.