I've been working (with claude) on caphelix.io, basically a biotech screener with past and upcoming events spread out on a timeline.
It also has event and company filtering, insider tracking, drug description / TAM / competitors, financials (runway, burn, marketcap, price data, etc. ) and a bunch of other stuff
I wanted it to be more data-oriented (it has mcp/api integration, but that's with a signup)
It's still a work in progress and I'm actively working on data accuracy, but let me know what you think
I've bought some Newamsterdam pharma stocks, because lot of analyst said the pipeline is very interesting, particularly about cardiovascular risks with Prevail product.
But today, the company suffers of very bad wave :
- Novartis fails
- Prevail is considered as likely big fail for the next stage by some financial analysts ...
What do you think please ?
I know Stanley Druckenmiller didn't hesitate to buy more ...
Zenas has guided Q4 2026 for topline results from SunStone, its Phase 2 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of obexelimab in SLE. There's no exact date yet. The primary endpoint is BICLA response at week 24, and they said they'll report results for both the overall population and the biomarker population.
I think most readouts get judged after the fact, once the press release has already framed the story. So we wrote the bar down before the data, using Zenas's own earlier SLE results as the benchmark.
The bar: an all-comer BICLA effect size of 17% or more. That's the primary-endpoint effect size from the prior trial's ITT population, so anything below it is a miss.
Two differentiators on top of that:
Optimized exposure (C trough) group: effect size of 35% or more
Biomarker-positive group: effect size of 52% or more
How we'll score it:
Beat: 17%+ overall and at least one subgroup hits its mark. The prior result replicates and the enrichment adds something.
Meet: 17%+ overall but the subgroups fall short. It replicates, but the biomarker story doesn't add much.
Miss: under 17% overall, or the release leads with a subgroup and leaves the all-comer number vague or out.
What we'll check in the release: whether the population is really all-comer/ITT, whether the effect is placebo-adjusted, whether p-values or CIs are given, how they define "optimal exposure", and the safety data.
Caveats: this bar comes from Zenas's own history, not a published success threshold. We haven't seen a public SAP, an alpha or multiplicity rule, or any SunStone-specific safety cutoffs. If you think a different benchmark makes more sense, I'd like to hear it.
Although XBI is still up year over year, it does appear that big money has begun to rotate out of biotech stocks. Names like AXSM, BBIO, MIRM, INSM, VRTX have been on a 2 week losing streak with no end in sight. Bonds are offering more than 5% for 10 year. Question is for how long?
I'm looking at Cue Biopharma, and I noticed that they don't have any drugs that's cleared through the FDA Pipeline. Actually, none of their drugs are even in Phase III.
So how is it that they've made $38M in revenues in the last year?
What are they selling since they don't have any drugs or therapeutics that have cleared the FDA or any other regulatory body?
After great results at the end of September the stop dropped due to a one month hold on data for deceleration. But with the good results and it soon to be unblinded, surly it’s a great price
LQDA fell around 60% after unfavorable ruling regarding its star product Yutrepia’s patent infringement of a competitor’s (UTHR) patent.
Yutrepia was marketed towards PAH & PH-ILD markets, however the patent infringement applies specifically to the PH-ILD segment. They have appealed the court’s ruling and UTHR wants FDA to revoke the approval for Yutrepia (extremely unlikely).
Even with the appeal the most likely scenario is that Yutrepia will have to drop the PH-ILD label and can market itself to PAH market and cannot market itself to PH-ILD (60% of its current revenue). The kick is that even if they drop the label, the drug is approved for PH-ILD markets and doctors can legally prescribe it to a patient for PH-ILD needs. They could still somewhat sell to the PH-ILD market if they price their products significantly marked down against the one only monopoly in the space (UTHR’s Tyvaso).
Hence I believe that the current price of $26.5 per share is overly harsh on a rapidly growing company with a solid product and may have priced around 30% lower than the most probable outcome.
I’m betting once everything is settled in the next few months the stock will be comfortably around $35-40 range.
This is the first in-depth dive I’ve done into any stock. Would love to know if I’m just full of shit or it’s an actual investment thesis? Any pointers from veterans are extremely appreciated.
Thesis: Approved PDT product, growing revenue, 80% margins, Q2 near breakeven, $14M market cap. Market prices it like a pre-revenue biotech. It is not one.
Approval: Ameluz (red-light PDT + BF-RhodoLED lamp) FDA-approved Sep 14, 2026 for superficial BCC. Only light therapy approved for skin cancer in the US. Already approved for AK (face/scalp).
De-risked: Ameluz has been marketed in the EU since 2012, and the EU label has covered AK plus superficial and nodular BCC since 2017. The technology is proven there; the US label is catching up.
Pipeline: AK label expansion to extremities/neck/trunk: Phase 3 met primary endpoint (45.6% vs 16.7%), sNDA planned 2026. Acne vulgaris: Phase 2b complete in moderate to severe acne (50M Americans, $5.7B US market). Early, but a big swing if it works.
I’ve been digging into Gossamer Bio ($GOSS) and struggling to reconcile the current ~$9–10 share price with where the company now sits.
The main points:
Seralutinib’s NDA for PAH was submitted to the FDA in September, on schedule.
The FDA pre-NDA meeting apparently raised no filing issues or requirement for another trial. The awkward PROSERA stats (p=0.032 vs 0.025 prespecified alpha) are expected to be review issues rather than filing issues.
FDA acceptance should be known around late November.
Chardan has just initiated coverage with a Buy / $160 PT, estimates a 65% approval probability and ~$1.3bn peak sales.
Gossamer has regained worldwide seralutinib rights from Chiesi, with Chiesi retaining only a low-single-digit capped royalty.
Financing is largely secured through the regulatory process, including a committed $125m tranche if the NDA is accepted.
The obvious catch is dilution. The financing structure could take the current ~6.1m basic shares to something closer to 30m+ on a fully diluted success-case basis, so I think the $160 analyst target is pretty misleading if taken literally.
I tried modelling it myself including the dilution, royalties, future cash, debt and a 60–65% approval probability.
I get roughly: $30–40/share risk-adjusted today $50–60/share if seralutinib is approved
…and that’s assigning basically zero value to PH-ILD or other future indications.
Current price: ~$9–10.
Obviously there’s major binary FDA risk here and PROSERA wasn’t a clean statistical win, so this could still go badly wrong.
But am I missing something obvious? Is the market correctly pricing the regulatory risk, or is GOSS genuinely one of the more mispriced biotech setups currently?
“These findings connect the key elements of our development strategy: delivering active drug to diseased intestinal tissue, engaging PDE4, and observing early clinical activity alongside reductions in inflammation,” said Mitch Jones, M.D., Ph.D., President and Chief Medical Officer of Palisade Bio. “The tissue analyses strengthen the mechanistic foundation for the clinical signals observed in UC and fibrostenotic Crohn’s disease, while our microbiome and biomarker work supports the delivery platform and a potential path toward more informed patient selection. As we advance our Phase 2 programs, the two Presidential Poster Awards are meaningful recognition of the work of our investigators and collaborators.”
Hey guys, I posted about this settlement before, but since they’re considering late claims, I decided to share it again with a little FAQ.
So here's all I know about this agreement:
BioXcel was accused of misleading investors about internal controls, trial protocol compliance, and data integrity in its TRANQUILITY II clinical trial. After the issues were disclosed, $BTAI fell about 64%, and investors filed a lawsuit.
Now the company has agreed to settle $9.75M with investors.
Who can claim this settlement?
If you bought $BTAI in 2023, you may be eligible. You don’t need to still own the shares to claim.
Do I need to sell/lose my shares to get this settlement?
No. You may qualify even if you already sold your $BTAI shares, as long as your transactions meet the settlement requirements.
How long does the payout process take?
It typically takes 4 to 9 months after the claim deadline for payouts to be processed, depending on the court and settlement administration.
I missed the deadline. Can I still claim?
Yes, late claims are currently being considered for compensation, subject to approval. Check if you're eligible and file your claim here.
TRex Bio, a South San Francisco immunology biotech, is set to list on u/Nasdaq with an estimated first trade on Friday. The range is $14 to $16 for 8.33M shares, a $125M raise. Here's the full read 👇
🖼️ WHAT THE GRAPHIC SAYS
- Deal size: $125M, with J.P. Morgan (@jpmorgan), Evercore ISI (@Evercore), Cantor, Stifel and Wedbush as bookrunners.
- Market cap: ~$412M on 27.45M shares at the midpoint; about $384M to $439M across the range.
Tregs are "peacekeeper" immune cells. TRex believes tissue Tregs actively orchestrate repair, not just suppress inflammation. Lead drug TRB-061, a TNFR2 agonist, is in Phase 1b for moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis. Topline data is expected mid-2027, after positive Phase 1a proof-of-mechanism in healthy volunteers in August. A second drug, TRB-071 (CD30, for IBD), is still preclinical.
💊 THE LILLY FACTOR
u/LillyPad is a discovery partner and plans to buy about $13M of the IPO, roughly 10% of the deal. Lilly is also advancing another candidate from this platform into a Phase 2a lupus trial. Big-pharma validation is real, but it isn't a guarantee.
💰 USE OF PROCEEDS
Roughly $111M net at the midpoint funds Phase 2 trials in atopic dermatitis and alopecia areata, plus the IBD program.
🌐 WHY IT MATTERS
Biotech IPOs have been a bright spot this year, helped by big-pharma buyouts. This deal tests whether that appetite survives a soft tape (SPY −0.3% pre-market). A strong book could coax more filers.
⚠️ THE CATCH
- Phase 1 means high failure risk; the key data are about nine months away.
- IPO-day pops in biotech often fade within weeks.
- Pricing can move: watch the final price and any upsizing Thursday night.
- Expect future dilution, since these programs cost more than $125M to finish.
🎯 MY PLAN
I'm watching, not chasing. If TRXB opens hot, I wait for the first pullback and an orderly range. Staged entries, small size, cash ready (40–50% reserves). Quiet first days reveal who really owns the stock.
