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If you get a Sower's, please LEAVE A COMMENT and STATE YOUR LEVEL. This is part of some research based on a comment someone made in the last thread.

This is my 2nd post in a series: the first post can be found here

10% Sower's Lament -- a set of maps

The initial math was wrong, so that dump had 15 maps. Math is corrected now: to get that 10% chance I have posted 19 maps this time.

And now ... Here is a Math Minute with Bookrat.

Weapons Market level 121-140 is, according to the Sword & Supper Data Viewer, the ONLY non-Boss Rush mission that has a chance to drop Sower's Lament. That chance is very small -- 0.68% -- which means it has a 99.32% chance of *not* dropping. And then you have to factor in that each 124-140 mission has only an 80% chance of dropping loot AT ALL, which means that the .68% chance is further reduced to (0.0068 * .8) = 0.00544, which is about a 1 in 185 chance.

But that doesn't mean that if you run 185 maps, you'll get one!

To determine the probability of an event occurring at least once during a series, you calculate the odds of it NOT happening every single time and subtract that from 1 (where 1.00 == 100%). So, for example, if you want to know the chances of NOT getting at least one 6 on a roll of 3d6, that would be 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 (also known as 5/6 to the 3rd power, or (5/6)^3) which is 125/216, or reduced to a decimal, 0.5787. That means that you have a (1 - 0.5787) = 0.4213 or 42.13% chance of rolling at least one 6 on 3d6.

Applying that to the Sower's Lament search: any single map has a .99456 (1-0.00544) chance of NOT producing a drop, so -- statistically speaking -- completing these 19 maps gives you a (1 - (0.99456)^19) = (1 - 0.9022) = 0.00978 = 9.78% (close enough to 10%) chance of getting at least one Sower's.

Over a larger range:
* 100 missions: 1 - (0.99456)^100 = 1 - .5795 = 42%
* 200 missions: 1 - (0.99456)^200 = 1 - .3359 = 66.4%
* 300 missions: 1 - (0.99456)^300 = 1 - .1947 = 80.5%
* 400 missions: 1 - (0.99456)^400 = 1 - .1128 = 88.7%
* 500 missions: 1 - (0.99456)^500 = 1 - .0653 = 93.5%

Remember, though, this is just cumulative statistics. You have the same chance of a drop on the 1st map as on the 501st map .. it's just that the froggy doing map 501 will have had that same drop chance five hundred more times.

I have completed *at least* 270 "Weapons Market level 121-140" missions, which means I had an ~77% (1 - (0.9946^270) = 1 - (0.2319) = 0.7681) chance of seeing at least one SL drop, but as I keep saying ... that's just statistics. It hasn't actually dropped for me. While I wait, I have been running 181+ missions, (I am level 138, yay Rage Wave!) which offer the best chance to get Weapons Market mission map drops. I'll post them in groups over the next while -- unless I get my Sower's, in which case I'll dump the remainder all at once.

121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.01
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.02
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.03
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.04
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.05
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.06
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.07
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.08
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.09
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.10
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.11
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.12
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.13
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.14
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.15
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.16
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.17
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.18
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 2.19

These maps are active for 30 days, so until Nov 11.

ALSO: here is a list of other people's 121-140 Weapons Market maps I have seen since my last post:
Map 1 Map 2 Map 3 Map 4 Map 5 Map 6 Map 7 (5* Stonekeep Boss)
These are NOT MY MAPS, and maybe you completed them already, but I'm posting them here to help people.

Finally, I actually posted two different maps as 1.15 in the last batch, but only linked to one of them. The second one saw MUCH less play, so if you only got there from the post you probably missed it.

121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 1.15 (take 2)

Happy Hunting, fellow frogs! May RNGeezus smile upon you!

1. Is it just me, or is the player character’s weapon-wielding arm lowkey buff?

2. Do you think they ever work out the other arm just to balance things out?

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