r/SpaceXBets • u/Trick-Cellist3254 • Jul 24 '26
Stock Discussion Going lower than expected
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u/HashRat Jul 24 '26
Going lower as expected
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u/big_rod_of_power Jul 24 '26
Where do you think it'll bottom? I wouldn't be surprised if this bitch hits 60
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u/The_Nerdy_Elephant Jul 24 '26
$35 or below
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u/big_rod_of_power Jul 24 '26
I honestly don't disagree. My absolute bottom of the bottom guess would be like 25
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u/The_Nerdy_Elephant Jul 24 '26
Mitsubishi Heavy Industry along with the Japanese government successfully tested their rockets. They are valued around $35ish as well
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u/big_rod_of_power Jul 24 '26
That's good to know I didn't hear about that! I guess we just wait to see how many fanboys decide they can't handle the pain and dump their bags
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u/DonkeyHoney Jul 24 '26
That's not how this works. Two companies can have the same share price and have very different valuations. Market value is share price times shares outstanding. SpaceX and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have different amounts of shares outstanding.
If you don't know this, I would highly advise not buying single stocks.
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u/The_Nerdy_Elephant Jul 24 '26
None of what is going with Tesla or Space X is normal. They are both high over valued for the industries they are in. I wouldn’t buy either company.
I would highly advise you to not be a snarky little bitch.
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u/DonkeyHoney Jul 24 '26
I'm not advising anything about SpaceX stock. But saying Mitsubishi Heavy is $35 so you think SpaceX should be around that price is a fundamental misunderstanding of stock prices. Better to compare market caps which would make the same point without a logical flaw. If you weren't saying that, my bad for misreading. If you were saying that, I hope this point is helpful for your future investment endeavors!
-signed, Snarky Little Bitch
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u/TeeBek Jul 24 '26
It'll likely never hit below $60 unless there's serious explosions. Maybe pad and tower damage. Or a crew dragon explosion that kills the passengers.
Only bad news will tank it lower.
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u/The_Nerdy_Elephant Jul 24 '26
It doesn’t make a profit. Isn’t that not bad news?
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u/TeeBek Jul 24 '26
No, sadly not anymore. Investing has changed. Clearly P/E means nothing these days.
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u/cucci_mane1 Jul 24 '26
0 earnings, tiny revenue, trading at same market cap as Meta. Lol
This is a $10 stock at best. Even that is generous
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u/Inevitable-Health757 Jul 24 '26
this!
Everyone anchors to the IPO price, even people who would want to get in at 70, 60, 50, 40,…
Truth is the company is way overpriced… an intelligent investor would stay away…
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u/MikeBinfinity Jul 24 '26
Even that will put it at a 130 billion marketcap.
This shit is worth $5. That'll put it at 65 billion.
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u/abraxasnl Jul 24 '26
I mean, they got a cool internet service.
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u/Master_of_Question Jul 24 '26
It's cool and actually worth something but even according to them they're primarily an "AI" company.
Starlink has a limited TAM and Elon understands that the only way to sustain this outrageous valuation is to keep making baseless claims about the future of LLMs and compute.
Their real product seems to be their stock and the promise, to insiders, that they can make out like bandits.
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u/gadgetwalrus Jul 24 '26
Not really … fair valuation is $25-40 tops. Great mobile internet company, compelling satellite technology weighed down by AI bets and a subpar social media company.
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u/LurkerFromTheVoid Jul 24 '26
Mmm...🤔
Today the center of the Earth is on sight.
Great discovery Elon!!! /$
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u/Successful_Permit_45 Jul 24 '26
If you’re gonna get in at all, wait for a triple bottom to form first, then wait for the first breakout on high volume. Otherwise you’re just torturing yourself averaging down.
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u/Jaideco Jul 24 '26
Good, now save this post so that you can use it again a couple of times a week for the foreseeable future.
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u/Trick_Actuary_2452 Jul 24 '26
Lower than expected? So you did zero research on this company and have zero knowledge on company financials. Got it!
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u/I-like-planez Jul 24 '26
What’s everyone’s expectations for the stock price I’m thinking 50
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u/The_Nerdy_Elephant Jul 24 '26
$35 or lower
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u/I-like-planez Jul 24 '26
Nice I love that… projected timeline?
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u/The_Nerdy_Elephant Jul 24 '26
When do the insiders get to sell? I imagine many of them want to get as much as possible and the. We will start to see it really sink. I think another 6/8 months
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u/cheeseonboast Jul 24 '26
Hope it sinks before the insiders sell. The last thing we need in the world is Musk fanboy space cowboys with billions of dollars each
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u/Spirited-Lawyer-8281 Jul 24 '26
Is the AI data center just going to be something the size of a phone booth so Elon can say mission accomplished?
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u/Primary_Echidna_1149 Jul 24 '26
For those of you who bought this stock next time just buy an index fund lol
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u/FreshLiterature Jul 24 '26
Expected by who?
Morningstar valued it at $63 for example.
Reusable rockets are already becoming a commodity.
Grok is effectively worthless.
Datacenters are a bust with short term contracts floating them
Space data centers are a pipe dream.
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u/LifesARiver Jul 24 '26
No. It's nowhere near as low as expected. If it keeps dropping after it hits $15 you can say that.
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u/Exatex Jul 24 '26 edited Jul 24 '26
Well, if we remove all the fuzz and hype and "mass and energy on Mars" for a second, this is my unemotional 30 min assessment:
Where it is at:
At least right now, launches don't make any money (I see that a good chunk is still R&D, okay, fair), Grok is pretty much one of many LLMs that is doing okay, only real and actually good growth we see is Starlink with a very juicy 50% YoY growth.
I would say a rather generous, but not unrealistic valuation, considering cash (30bn), launches (5x revenue multiple), Starlink (11x revenue multiple) and a bit of AI (8x revenue multiple) would land somewhere around a quarter trillion USD - not bad at all. That would be a share price around $18. More conservative multiples would land at a valuation of below $100bn, or less than $7 per share.
I understand the vision and everything, and SpaceX is around a decade ahead of its competition and has a monopoly on affordable, reusable launches into LEO/MEO, however so far failed to really capitalize on it. Just to mention it: Independent on sympathy, Musk himself and his ability to raise money and inspire peoples dreams is definitely a valuable asset. However, his instability and him being openly a Neonazi negates that to some degree and can turn it into a liability, as we have seen with a massive decline in Tesla Sales in Europe following the Nazi salute.
Where it can go:
I think its a really good company, and one can consider to invest once it is not a hyped stock anymore, especially as I would love it to succeed in connecting underdeveloped and rural areas of the world. But I would not even look at it closer until it arrives somewhere in the ballpark of a $20 share price. That is if Starlink keeps up the good growth and SpaceX manages to increase the launch segment and actually starts making money there. Grok will most likely stay where it is and in line with competition or a few months behind, especially in light of affordable Chinese models like deepseek in 2025, GLM, and now Kimi 3 - I don't see much reason to believe that this trend will stop. Main reason I am not more negative there is it being a native Cursor first-party model now. Grok is also a very small percentage of revenue right now.
So, taking all of this into consideration, there is still a 10x gap from what I would like to see in a company to justify that valuation.
tldr: I expect $20 or below from reasonable investors in the long term, if everything goes well for SpaceX, and around $5 if it stagnates.
I am genuinely interested to hear the reasoning of SpaceX stock holders though or someone that actually looked at the company and puts the number way higher than me (even the $70 in this thread), maybe I am missing something - might be the fuss I put aside in the first sentence.
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u/ceramic_ocarina Jul 24 '26
This is the most expected thing possible lol. Should be maybe 70 at most
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u/PauperGames Jul 24 '26
This shit is gonna go up. Not because the company has any inherent value, but because its a musk company and earnings do not matter.
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u/Witty_Screen_261 Jul 24 '26
Somehow, I want it to go really low. Unfortunately I am assuming a lot of people are going to get hurt by this that have no clue about what retirement accounts are invested in this shit.
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u/StaysAwakeAllWeek Jul 24 '26
I have a buy order at $50 and im fully expecting it to fill this year.
People who didn't expect it to drop like this are blind
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u/DapperAstronaut9300 Jul 24 '26
Who didnt expect this to go low?? Everyone with half a brain knew this shit was going to inflate and collapse
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u/cresdon Jul 24 '26
The company was never worth anywhere near to USD $1 trillion much less the USD $1.75 trillion that they targeted at IPO. Half of their IPO price i.e. $67.50 is still too high for what this company generates in revenue and profit (rather losses).
The share price of this company should easily be sub $50, maybe even sub $30 until they actually start providing financials that support this insane valuation.
Hopefully investors continue the recent trend of rating Musk companies on the known facts rather than vibes.
Tesla has escaped its logical price correction after multiple sub-par earnings reports for far too long. I’m happy to see that the market is finally repricing the share price after another poor earnings report.
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u/FangsOfTheNidhogg Jul 24 '26
This stock is only a buy when it’s trading in the single digits. I mean that 100% seriously.
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u/3-BuckChuck Jul 24 '26
Waiting for 50 personally
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u/FlabbyLabby Jul 24 '26
Why wait for a business that will never be profitable (across all four lines of biz)?
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u/3-BuckChuck Jul 24 '26
I think it’ll come back as a sleeper. They are doing great things in space way cheaper than nasa ever did. 50 launches on the left coast so far this year. We see them launch from vandenburg every few days. It’s not all happening in Texas.
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u/Ok_Recover_7248 Jul 24 '26
NASA would be doing the same things cheaper now because of technological advancements, except Musk leveraged his wealth to bribe high ranking political figures to get all the NASA contracts siphoned away towards Musk’s businesses.
There’s nothing merit based about it, it’s purely quid pro quo.
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u/BootFlop Jul 24 '26
It’s hard to say how long it would have taken for someone to take a serious, successful swing at economically sound reusability if SpaceX hadn’t.
Unfortunately there was a LOT of self-interest motivation in the aerospace industry to stay the course, milk the safe contracts. 🤷♂️
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u/Ok_Recover_7248 Jul 24 '26
How long it would have taken another company to? 2 other countries are pushing R&D right now and rapidly closing the capability gap. Spacex was a competent company before it became so politicized, but they’re literally squandering their first mover advantage (as Musk already did with Tesla and the currently dying US EV market).
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u/BootFlop Jul 24 '26
rapidly closing the capability gap.
“Gap”. And without that gap? Without the proof of concept? 🤷♂️
Spacex was a competent company before it became so politicized,
🙄 You’re describing yourself, your perception here.
but they’re literally squandering their first mover advantage
How? There’s still moving keeping ahead of everyone else.
the currently dying US EV market).
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂🤡
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u/Ok_Recover_7248 Jul 24 '26
>There’s still moving keeping ahead of everyone else
They’re still moving, you mean? They discontinued half of their production models and sales are slumping. Most of their body styles were never refreshed years later. The cyber truck was a massive flop, and the roadster still hasn’t been delivered despite accepting $250,000 pre-orders. Tesla as a company has absolutely squandered a literal cornering of the US EV market and in my opinion will not be selling cars 10 years from now on their current trajectory. His relationship with Trump has soured, so presumably the government contracts and subsidies they benefitted from will not be as readily available moving forward. Hell the $7,500 US rebate on EV sales was rescinded in the last 6 months, I bet you their next 10K filing will show a massive slump in sales.
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u/BootFlop Jul 24 '26
Are you drunk, forgot that that was referring to SpaceX? That YOU were referring to SpaceX, you didn’t wander OT to blather your drivel about EVs later.
JFC. 🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
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u/Ok_Recover_7248 Jul 24 '26
took an edible tbh, forgot the context of our argument
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u/mynameistory Jul 24 '26
It's actually kind of reassuring that nobody in here knows what the hell they're talking about.
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u/3-BuckChuck Jul 24 '26
So more of a reason to have faith in one of the few companies actually launching? Seems like a savvy business decision. I don’t like the guy but he’s not dumb, little crazy yes….
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u/AntiquePhotograph433 Jul 24 '26
I 100% agree, but it still needs to be profitable.
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u/No_Cook2983 Jul 24 '26
No. NASA needs to be self-sufficient and profitable.
SpaceX needs taxpayer assistance.
They call it ‘capitalism’.
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u/Wooly_Wooly Jul 24 '26
When you get all of NASA's funding while rigging the market with your corrupt president buddy, im sure it'll eventually be profitable. He needed to manipulate the industries and politicians to even get to this point.
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u/Certain_Bit3809 Jul 24 '26
Nasa isnt a business. They werent trying to do things cheaply. There is a limit to how many people want to pay to shoot something into space and its way less than a trillion dollars. Companies have been doing it for years! Even if spacex can do it cheaper, that doesnt radically grow the market.
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u/3-BuckChuck Jul 24 '26
Why shouldn’t they have a fiduciary responsibility to taxpayers money? I’m not taking sides, I just see the financial upside buying stock when it’s at a reasonable price. Did you buy semiconductors when the drone wars started a few years back? Azerbaijan and Armenia set the pace. This is just the same metric. Cheap stuff on target
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u/Certain_Bit3809 Jul 24 '26
That’s because demand for semiconductors increased. There is no reason to believe the TAM of people who want to launch things into space will grow dramatically.
Why do you believe it is a reasonable price? What are you basing that valuation on?
As for nasa, i really dont understand the point this comparison. Nasa is not a business. They are not trying to make a profit. And doing something cheaper than them doesnt mean youre profitable. Youre comparing unlike things because both relate to “space”
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u/3-BuckChuck Jul 24 '26
You seem mad. Did you buy at the IPO high?
I may know a thing or 2 about stocks, trends and space. I’m just giving an opinion. Chill out man
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u/Certain_Bit3809 Jul 24 '26
I dont invest in meme stocks. And yes I do get worked up when people are pushing an obvious scam. Earning will matter at some point.
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u/Equal_Squirrel4939 Jul 24 '26
China learned how to land a rocket. What need do we have for SpaceX?
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u/Vintage_Gamer476 Jul 24 '26
But...but...Communism! CHINA! /sigh
One day, humans will be able to look beyond our fake borders, but it won't be in any of our lifetimes.1
u/ItaJohnson Jul 24 '26
I’m sure many have seen, and are tired of, excessive corporate greed. Americans corporations have been the best sales people for communism. Corporations and politicians too.
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u/wl1233 Jul 24 '26
Do you think other countries, such as china, has our best interests at heart? Reddit really puts on display the far left portion of the bell curve
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u/Designer_Advice_6304 Jul 24 '26
Some day you’ll be telling your grandchildren you got spacex at 118
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u/dd97483 Jul 24 '26
insiders bought at $38 so it can much lower.