r/SpaceXBets • • Jul 21 '26

Stock Discussion who would've thought ? 😂

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1.6k Upvotes

170 comments sorted by

61

u/[deleted] Jul 21 '26

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8

u/[deleted] Jul 22 '26

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1

u/WoodpeckerWarm4870 Jul 22 '26

Guess i dont have brain cells 🥲

1

u/No-Count-7717 Jul 22 '26

How couldn't you? It makes no money

1

u/Confident-End-9183 Jul 23 '26

I'm with you. I have a lot of dumb luck I suppose. Liking the price action. Keep it going down. Buying tsla and maybe spcx later.

5

u/Exatex Jul 22 '26 edited Jul 22 '26

I would have expected that there are enough lunatics that keep buying into the hype for it to keep going up to be honest. Completely detached from reality, like bitcoin or so. I am rather surprised it went down that badly, I guess after the initial drop people lost faith and its impossible to recover now

3

u/NoNameSwitzerland Jul 22 '26

At some point, it just gets to big and there is not enough stupid money left to go around.

3

u/Exatex Jul 22 '26 edited Jul 22 '26

I would agree with you, but I had the same thought about Tesla in 2018ish. Today, Tesla is selling 4x the number of cars but its valuation rose 22x

2

u/NoNameSwitzerland Jul 22 '26

Yes, but SpaceX started with a higher market cap than Tesla ever reached.

2

u/Exatex Jul 22 '26 edited Jul 22 '26

sure, probably also rightfully so. I am purely talking about hype behavior and multiples, not absolute values. I don’t even think Tesla and SpaceX are bad companies at all - just not for that price, by far. Both of them.

2

u/North-Creative Jul 22 '26

Exactly that. In recent years, most of these hollow companies have experienced a drop, but then, once it dipped, investors buy it up, and there is still the name Musk, so "it must be good at some point", and it rises.

As much as I hate it, the stock will rise, as humans are greedy garbage.

If I am wrong, and it will finally crash and burn, and deliver us from Muskler and his cronies, I will gladly be wrong.

1

u/Turnipntulip Jul 23 '26

Well, there is still like millions of shares kept by SpaceX’s employees. They’re forbidden from selling them until August. If they hold their shares, SpaceX’s share price might stabilize. If they sell tho, the thing will probably plummet like a rock.

1

u/thebobbobsoniii Jul 22 '26

Another collapse waiting to happen once people realise the growth is over and it cannot pay any sort of sensible dividend.

1

u/ChasingtheBarrel Jul 22 '26

A blind man could've seen this coming.

1

u/Haipul Jul 22 '26

My only regret is that I don't have rhe ability to short it because I would have definitely shorter it one month ago and would probably still do today

1

u/National-Date-5457 Jul 26 '26

Im glad I put 50$ into it. And then got rid of it. Lol

1

u/eieiohmygad Jul 22 '26

When God was handing out brains I thought he said "trains" so I asked for a small one...

1

u/dmstattoosnbongs Jul 22 '26

“I’d hate to be so dim to be surprised by something like the inevitable…”-Robert House

Who Elon wishes he could be. Honestly, I’d take that. At least House wanted to help, even tho he had a different way of seeing the world.

0

u/Confident-End-9183 Jul 23 '26

I agree it is overpriced but it is really hard to say where this will go. I don’t believe in data centers in space but in 10 years when they are mining trillions worth of nickel and platinum off of asteroids someone will say you were all idiots for missing this 20 bagger.

1

u/MrWhibley2024 Jul 25 '26

Lol, then the supply crashes the value of those metals.

49

u/PurposeSecret Jul 21 '26

ngl, feels good

19

u/brixon Jul 21 '26

Should be around $40, so still a ways to go

12

u/Scared_Edge9194 Jul 22 '26

It’s worth 15-20 based on standard evaluation.

14

u/[deleted] Jul 22 '26

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4

u/HappyCamperPC Jul 22 '26

Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase et al should hang their heads in shame. Their credibility will be totally ruined if it slides below $3.00. If it stops at $4.20 they can just claim they did it for the lulz 😆 and maybe their clients will have a good old chuckle. 😃

3

u/[deleted] Jul 22 '26

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0

u/SargeUnited Jul 22 '26

Don’t think so. I don’t trust them for shit but I’m a shareholder

2

u/gerhardsymons Jul 22 '26

I'm pretty sure the investment banks are shameless, and have been shameless for at least a century or so.

1

u/para1131_F33L Jul 22 '26

You guys are all acting like SpaceX is the only rocket stock being sold. Other rocket companies that are smaller with less contracts priced in a range of 50 to 80 dollars months ago. Rather than cross examining SpaceX relentlessly you need to be examining the industry as a whole.

2

u/AMPed101 Jul 22 '26

Are you talking about Rocketlab? They have a market cap of 40 billion. If SpaceX would have the same market cap it would be about $3.20...

0

u/JEXJJ Jul 22 '26

Do they also have an AI Nazi friendly social media arm that is burning $1b a month?

5

u/UnicornGangstar Jul 22 '26

Memes stocks valuate on the cuckboy ratio

3

u/PurposeSecret Jul 22 '26

Fingers crossed

3

u/No-Advertising-1526 Jul 22 '26

40 bucks is actually still overpriced. The company is lighting money on fire every quarter. The rocket launch biz has a limited market as the vast majority of people who can afford internet already have access to cheaper land based internet and starlink does not work as well in urban areas with lots of tall buildings. Does as far as catching up with the leaders in American AI who themselves are about to be completely undercut by far cheaper Chinese models is extremely slim. Elons rep as a terrible boss who sabotages the experts and needs his fragile ego massaged at all times will chase away the best minds.

2

u/IH8Miotch Jul 22 '26

My only concern was they were saying 401ks were gonna buy into his bs. I hope mine didn't. I should probably check

2

u/SargeUnited Jul 22 '26

If you have any NASDAQ tracking funds in your 401(k), then I got some bad news for you, buddy

1

u/PurposeSecret Jul 22 '26

Touch the stove moment… how else are gonna learn what a grifter he is?

0

u/HelicopterBoth4465 Jul 22 '26

Such concern when you have no idea what you are talking about is funny.

1

u/SignoreBanana Jul 22 '26

Feels, like, normal

-6

u/[deleted] Jul 21 '26

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4

u/AssumptionLive2246 Jul 22 '26

It’s a start.

2

u/No-Advertising-1526 Jul 22 '26

There are zero fundamentals behind his wealth. Tesla trades at a 300 to 400 p/e ratio space x just lights cash on fire. Its a cult.

1

u/[deleted] Jul 22 '26

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1

u/Not_Evading_76 Jul 22 '26

Every accusation is an admission

1

u/Historical-Fox357 Jul 22 '26

If he tried to liquidate he'd be lucky to make 50 billion. So just shut the fuck up 😂

19

u/therealslimshady1234 Jul 21 '26

Its going to drop way, way more when the extra shares unlock. This is essentially a meme stock

It will be remembered as the biggest rug pull of all time

DUDE datacenters in SPACE bro!!

Indeed, who could have seen this coming ?

6

u/SignoreBanana Jul 22 '26

Anyone with a brain knew it was a meme stock. The question was how much can a meme stock float these days. Turns out people don't have money to throw around as much as they did during covid.

2

u/porizj Jul 22 '26

If it drops below GME at any point, I may actually die from laughter.

1

u/vsRushy Jul 23 '26

Do we know when the extra shares unlock?

1

u/therealslimshady1234 Jul 23 '26

Next block seems to be at Aug 8

6

u/welding-guy Jul 22 '26

Falling faster than the gravitational pull of the earth. Haha space joke

5

u/erock10281971 Jul 21 '26

I knew a rug pull was imminent

3

u/gojiro0 Jul 21 '26

Ha ha!
Hey Nelson he's really hurt. I think he broke his leg.
I SAID "ha ha."

3

u/Rpark444 Jul 22 '26

If u short 10k worth of spcx u would have $18K today and probably.over 20k by the times those insider shares unlock

3

u/UhhhhhhhhhhhOk Jul 22 '26

I actually managed to profit a bit and sell at peak because Reddit scared me out of my dumb decision, thank you guys

2

u/Road_2_Ruin Jul 22 '26

Not if you invested 10k in puts.

2

u/TravelerMSY Jul 22 '26

Is everyone who is buying this a child who wasn’t around investing in 1999?

2

u/HurricaneHauk Jul 22 '26

Anyone with 2 brain cells knew it would drop

2

u/PurpleCoat6656 Jul 22 '26

Is it too late to invest in Nazi gold futures?

1

u/PopularBroccoli Jul 22 '26

Nazi gold based companies often remain private sadly

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAB_Holding_Company

2

u/NewNewspaperB Jul 22 '26

$25-$40 sounds about right.

1

u/HalastersCompass Jul 21 '26

That's going to hurt

1

u/PharmDinvestor Jul 21 '26

Would be worse than that in 2 months

1

u/Strigon_7 Jul 21 '26

Could I have shorted it? And if so how much could I make?

1

u/ComonomoC Jul 22 '26

Anyone know how Elmo’s Tesla obligations are supposed to pan out? Didn’t his last pay increase depend on huge returns?

1

u/VioletShogun Jul 22 '26

In addition to temporarily making the first trillionaire, SpaceX might make hundreds of the first negative billionaires

1

u/PositionOk6327 Jul 22 '26

So is RocketLab. So is Intel. Guys, a big part of the market in these sectors are down. It isn’t just SpaceX.

1

u/InTheseTryingTime5 Jul 22 '26

We should all take a moment to thank this guy!

1

u/sandeep709394 Jul 22 '26

when the socialists kept harping on about 5% wealth tax on Elon's $1T worth of SpaceX, you KNEW it was time to short cus socialists are always wrong.

1

u/Consistent-Bowler95 Jul 22 '26

Tbh I hated all those scripted videos about it inevitablly drappoing hard, but good on whoever was sponsoring that campaign to try to counter the malicious fake hype.

1

u/lexicon_charle Jul 22 '26

Still a scam. A scam with some good science backing it but still a scam.

1

u/Man_of_Ice Jul 22 '26

But... LITERALLY they're going to the ACTUAL moon.

How is this even POSSIBLE?;?!?!??!!!!-!??(!?

1

u/darkklown Jul 22 '26

if Elon Musk's companies traded at the same P/E ratio as Microsoft (~24x earnings, a pretty normal multiple for a mature profitable tech giant), his net worth would look very different. Tesla's actual trailing profit is $3.86B — at 24x that's a ~$93B company, not $1.43T. Musk owns ~13%, so his Tesla stake would be worth about $12B instead of the ~$186B it's actually worth today. SpaceX is worse: it posted a net loss of $4.9B in 2025 and lost another $4.3B in just Q1 2026, so there's no profit to even apply a multiple to — at a strict earnings-based valuation it's arguably worth close to $0, versus the $670B+ his actual stake is valued at post-IPO. Add in X (negligible either way) and Musk's "profit-justified" net worth comes out to roughly $12-15 billion, compared to his so called net worth of over $1 trillion

1

u/TheDamned1333 Jul 22 '26

Musk already started posting more lies about the what they will do next - Time travel by 2040 probably and the American government will fund it all.

1

u/Extension-Noise-4023 Jul 22 '26

This was supposed to happen ,

1

u/nhh Jul 22 '26

So is it a buy now? 

1

u/apexglide1 Jul 22 '26

Wait till Aug 6 when over 900m shares unlock. You’ll be able to get this sub $100 in 6mo.

1

u/AsClearAsNolanDialog Jul 22 '26

Dream target price is 250M+. Not $500 or whatever. Pretty soon aliens will be trading their precious resources with us to get in line to buy spacex stock. And then Gods will line up to buy Spcx stock.

1

u/eulersidentity1 Jul 22 '26

Isn’t it common for IPOs?

1

u/AppropriateGuest3552 Jul 22 '26

Nazi LIves don’t matter!

1

u/Alpha--00 Jul 22 '26

“Anyone with functioning brain” is correct answer. Everyone warned about it being blatant cash grab, and rules of this particular IPO was sus as hell.

1

u/mynamesnotsnuffy Jul 22 '26

Exit liquidity is a hell of a drug. Not for anyone left holding the bag tho.

1

u/Various_Candidate499 Jul 22 '26

Luckily for me I invested $20,000

1

u/Lumpy_Cup3232 Jul 22 '26

The world saw China do it with $100 worth of temu parts lol.

1

u/Invictus0623 Jul 22 '26

Who would’ve guessed a new ipo would spike and then drop.

1

u/xesta_ferbenza Jul 22 '26

...impossible to know before...

1

u/Ungmand92 Jul 22 '26

And its still overpriced

1

u/Ok-Inflation4310 Jul 22 '26

Then again you could have made nearly $7 k by buying on release and selling at the right time.

Thems the breaks.

1

u/Sad-Pop6649 Jul 22 '26

And thanks to their timely meddling with the rules of investing, every American's pension fund took on a part of this loss. All to enrich Elon.

1

u/SpakulatorX Jul 22 '26

Boy if we only knew what happens when a company goes public

1

u/Cheap-Parking-5862 Jul 22 '26

A lot of people who own world ETFs got pulled into this rugpull through quickly changed regulations what stocks are included. Fts

1

u/Sallende11 Jul 22 '26

Just wait till Elon builds Dyson's sphere and harvests energy from Milky Way. SPCX gonna be worth septillions in 20 years.

1

u/HelicopterBoth4465 Jul 22 '26

Are you basing this off the one person who bought the high of the stock when it was close to $225 for a few seconds or the majority of people who bought $135?

1

u/Krommander Jul 22 '26

Lol everyone knew. 

1

u/Vegetable_Addendum86 Jul 22 '26

Literally everyone, wait until the lock up is up

1

u/Baka_Otaku173 Jul 22 '26

I think we saw an excellent example of YOLO in the past month or so.

1

u/Late-Dingo-8567 Jul 22 '26

anyone else remember the .com bubble and a bunch of analysts were caught calling companies POSs while publicly rating them buys?

Wonder how those $200--$800 price targets will hold up.

1

u/zekoslav90 Jul 22 '26

Such tragedy happening to such an honest man. What has this world become.

1

u/vickism61 Jul 22 '26

I don't understand why anyone would ever invest in Spacex.

It's literally nothing without US tax payer money and the US is trillions of dollars in debt!

1

u/Several_Specific_512 Jul 22 '26

What, did you buy it at 210?

1

u/Sad-Smoke-2229 Jul 22 '26

Literally everyone musk knows his crowd.

1

u/Repulsive_Mud_567 Jul 22 '26

Musk is such a visionary and mega-intellectual. Those investment bankers that helped him pull of this con job are truly remarkable bastions of morality.

1

u/TotalInstruction Jul 22 '26

Elon warns people not to short SPCX.

https://giphy.com/gifs/Frj5mE4aGKgjS

1

u/Electrochemist_2025 Jul 22 '26

Perfect!

My curses on those who support that Afrikaaner worked for once.

1

u/brettlewisn Jul 22 '26

Same as Trump coins.

1

u/BetAlternative8397 Jul 22 '26

A very low % of SpaceX stock is actually available to be traded. Most of the institutional investors that gobbled it up pre IPO have to hold the stock for 12 months.

No one wants to touch the small amount of stock that is currently available to be traded at a price at or above its IPO price. Next year, when the remaining 90% can be sold, the blood will flow.

Few, if any, of Elon Musk’s big promises come true and this valuation is based almost entirely on promises for the future.

1

u/Own-Opinion-2494 Jul 22 '26

They were harvesting wealth

1

u/AlexisIronman Jul 22 '26

Un caracol con un microbio junto con un átomo lo hubiera imaginado

1

u/hutitus Jul 22 '26

i did it with 45k€

1

u/BullfrogInside1591 Jul 22 '26

Next stop, Mars!…. 😂

1

u/spread_sparrow Jul 22 '26

Literally all could have guessed

1

u/Web3Growth Jul 22 '26

As long as they don't dilute the stock

1

u/karkonthemighty Jul 22 '26

On the one hand, you have Elon's fans willing to hold the bag for anything he's attached to.

On the other, a company claiming to be worth more than any other company, ever, which is basically three companies slapped together and only one of which did things that makes money but overall runs at a loss on account of the other two parts dragging it down. Which anybody actually serious about investing sees as having more red flags than a CCCP parade.

He sent a toddler to hold back the tide.

Eventually it'll stabilise to something likely still higher than is actual worth, but trillion dollar company it was not.

1

u/GeorgeStark1 Jul 22 '26

If you invested $10,000 in Tesla during the IPO, how much would you have today?

Using a representative recent price of ~$379 (split-adjusted), the same $10,000 investment would now be worth approximately $2.38 million.

How much would you have 1 month after the IPO?

A $10,000 investment at the IPO closing price (~6,289 split-adjusted shares) would have been worth roughly $8,300–$8,600 (a loss of ~14–17%).

1

u/Windmilljam17 Jul 22 '26

I thought I got a deal when I got the IPO price of $135. Another hyped up stock where certain people made a lot and normal investors got waxed.

1

u/[deleted] Jul 22 '26

come on guys... now is easy to say that you saw this coming...

i wouldn't invest in it because all the evaluations apears to be based on fumes and hopes and dreams...

but a month ago it was impossible to know if the stock was going up or down, because the human stupidity is never ending

1

u/mrflow-n-go Jul 23 '26

Glad I only lost $500 bucks. Had my stop loss order out there. Honestly knew this thing was shit, but was hoping the musklovers would keep it afloat to $175 then was going to dump. Was always a long shot. Oh well.

1

u/Dirt114 Jul 23 '26

Hahahaha!

1

u/Illustrious_Age8972 Jul 23 '26

Hold.you'll be fine.

1

u/spectrumofusall Jul 23 '26

This is what stocks do. Anyone with a brain knows that people would sell quickly, people trying to cash in quick. It will rebound. As stocks do.

1

u/DreamsSecretsNLogic Jul 25 '26

You act like it's an inevitability that it's going to rebound just because it's a stock. It's going down because it doesn't have value. You sound so arrogant

1

u/spectrumofusall Jul 25 '26

Says the know it all. Okay

Stocks go up and down all the time. Welcome to stocks 101

1

u/DreamsSecretsNLogic Jul 25 '26

Obviously stocks have the ability to go up and down. But often they will go down and not come back up. It's not inevitable that it's going to rebound, it's actually very unlikely. You act like this is normal behavior for a stock and it's not. There's never been a company that's been so overvalued at IPO in the history of companies. You're such an arrogant vibe about you

1

u/spectrumofusall Jul 25 '26

Okay. Cool 🤙🏻

1

u/Freudarian Jul 24 '26

And all the Elon fanboiz will tell you that it is just haters being haters. And they dont understand the true value of Elon's vision 🤣🤣🤣🤣

And here is the kicker, if merging 3 bankrupt companies doesnt create value, we'll just throw Tesla into the mix 🤣🤣🤣 LMAO

The biggest hoax of my lifetime. Even BTC is more valuable than the whole shitty package altogether. At least it was build without any gov money amd subsidies

1

u/kawi29 Jul 24 '26

Am the way to zero

1

u/DirectorOriginal Jul 25 '26

When it runs to the upside please update.

1

u/Equivalent-One4139 Jul 25 '26

LOL. Sucks to be them....... although my friend invested $10K into Tesla at their IPO. Worth $2mil+ today. 😳

1

u/WillTheDreadWolf Jul 25 '26

Lmao I bought 25 shares at 150 🤣

1

u/Minimum-Twist7889 Jul 25 '26

This is called the math of fast disappearing money. It’ll come back in 30 years. Just wait for it. Imagine the space frontier.

1

u/DreamsSecretsNLogic Jul 25 '26

I can't lie, I am watching this stock with great satisfaction. I can't wait for the next thunderf00t video

1

u/Grand_Scratch_9305 Jul 25 '26

Typical IPO movement.

1

u/Grand_Scratch_9305 Jul 25 '26

SpaceX has a lot of potential but IPO's typical move this way. The profitability of 10,000 satellites currently in orbit, and eventual consolidation of TESLA, and some form of robotics coming on line, add in the military contracts,......I'll jump in when the price is more attractive.

1

u/pc349 Jul 27 '26

Then would you have to 2x / 4x down to average

1

u/Penultimo_1 Jul 22 '26

Yes but in a year from now, you will have Checks notes, $56.62

1

u/FreddieBetkey Jul 22 '26 edited Jul 22 '26

Yea. If you were an idiot and bought it at 225.00. Yes you would have lost half your investment. Like I said, if you’re an ignorant investor you lost lots of money. Don’t be stupid. If you bought 65 shares at $150. And sold at $225 you would have netted about $5000. Know how and when to invest, buy and sell. Hope this helps.

-1

u/Mission_Advance1207 Jul 21 '26

and would be worth 3000 by December

0

u/[deleted] Jul 22 '26

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2

u/Jakeb987654321 Jul 22 '26

Me too. But…. Buy and HOLD. come back in 5 years

0

u/snacky_bear Jul 22 '26

It should go down until the risk premium properly rewards for owning this stock. They miiight mine asteroids… but they also miight waste starlink profits on the xAI money furnace. They will never surpass the frontrunners like openai or anthropic, and they will never be cheaper than the chinese models. Until Muski-moo explains how space data centers make any economic sense or at least starts with viable servers on earth the price for this should be closer to 10$ or below… spacex has massive capex requirements. We do not know the capex requirements or true risks of starlink (long-term BAU). At the same time, Musk has a worrisome ownership structure established, making this, like tesla, a bet on Musk… and Tesla … might get eaten by byd. 400++ p/e on tesla btw :/ whats that? Investors are crazy

1

u/Gold_Debate633 Sep 08 '26

Except it’s not at that price. It’s currently at $147.00,