r/Snorkblot • u/LordJim11 • 19d ago

History Analogous to data centres?

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u/libertyg8er 19d ago

How about VHS tapes? How about CDs? How about analog cable? How about steam engines?

Let’s not do a thing because they’ll eventually become obsolete to things that require you to develop enough of a market for said thing in the first place for innovation to replace it…

It’s bad logic.

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u/Valten78 19d ago

Also each 'obsolete' bit of technology was a step on the journey to the technology that superseded it. It's an ongoing cycle.

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u/libertyg8er 19d ago

That was kind of the point.

Guess I didn’t articulate it enough.

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u/king_rootin_tootin 18d ago

They all made a profit. "AI" has not made a profit and has no path to making a profit.

The best analogy would be the metaverse.

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u/libertyg8er 18d ago

Do you think those things immediately made a profit?

How many e-commerce companies died in the dot com bubble before e-commerce companies began to make profits?

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u/king_rootin_tootin 18d ago

Some did make a profit in the early days, while literally no generative AI company is making a profit. Nvidia is, but they are doing so because they sell hardware.

And when you look at the scale and expenses of these systems...you see it just makes no sense.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/unattainable-economics-llms-why-ai-race-may-collapse-pierre-jean-wtpkf

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u/libertyg8er 18d ago

There’s certainly an argument that the LLMs may not make it, and the picks and shovels are the place to invest.

That’s a pretty historically smart way to do it.

Picks and shovels do well, a winner in the speculative side is a really big winner, and the losers lose everything.

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u/king_rootin_tootin 18d ago

True. Nvidia will survive because their chips are still the best for gaming and all. They will be the big winners in this

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u/libertyg8er 18d ago

Expect there to be a big winner (an Amazon from the dot com era) among AI companies, but in the consolidation phase, there will be far more losers than winners.