r/NFLNoobs • u/WishboneHot8050 • 2d ago
What is the calculus of calling time outs inside or outside of the 2 minute warning?
4th quarter. 2:30 to go. The team on defense is down by one score and needs the ball back. And clock management with timeouts starts getting discussed by the tv show commentators.
Some teams, while on defense, will take at least one timeout before the two minute warning. Others don't start the timeout management until after the 2 minute warning at the expense of some very long runoffs by the opposing offense in the minute leading up to the 2:00 mark.
Do teams have a standard practice based on the down and yards to go before deciding which side of the clock to start taking defensive timeouts in these one score situations?
It always seems like some teams coming from behind aren't managing the clock effectively well to give enough time back to their offense.
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u/fishred 2d ago
Generally if a team is down two or more scores they are likely to start using timeouts earlier.
If a team is only down one score, then the calculus changes. Obviously one of the pros of using timeouts before the two minute warning is that, should you get a stop, you will have more time to go down and score. But there are two reasons this advantage is not as big as it might initially seem. First, because the offense has other ways to stop the clock, the advantage of having two minutes and a few seconds to score over only having, say, 1:40 is not huge--especially if all you need is a field goal. Second, when you're on offense trying to get that go-ahead score, you also don't want to leave the other team with enough time to score. This is compounded given that average starting position after a kickoff is around the 30, and that means the other team will only need to make about 25-30 yards for a legitimate field goal attempt.
On the other hand, there are advantages to waiting until after the two minute warning. One is simply the fact that this guarantees you can stop the clock after the two-minute warning. But if you call the timeouts before the two-minute warning, you are essentially putting in most/all your chips in on getting a stop THIS serires. If you give up a first down, the other team will then be able to run out the clock. This also tends to free up the offensive playcalling--a team that has the lead and the ball after the two-minute warning is almost certainly going to run the ball on first and second down, because they won't want to stop the clock with an incompletion. If the defense starts using their timeouts, that makes it a bit more likely the offense will see a pass as worth the risk, which makes it harder for your defense to get a stop.
Other considerations involving the specific teams, the position on the field, etc., also factor into it, but on the whole the four-minute offense is less conservative than the offense will be after the two-minute warning. So using your timeouts before the two-minute warning puts a lot on the line at a time when defense is more complicated than it will be after the two-minute warning.
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u/Eastern_Antelope_832 2d ago edited 2d ago
Simple example:
2:30 to go, 1st and 10. You still have all 3 timeouts. If you wait to take timeouts after the 2-min warning, then (presumably) the clock stops at 2 min. Then you need to get two stops (using two timeouts) which will bring you down to about 1:45 for fourth down. You have one timeout banked.
If you take your timeouts ahead of the 2-min warning, you call timeout after 3 stops and then it hits the 2 min warning after the third stop. So it will be 4th down at the 2 min mark. Thus, you saved about 15 seconds while using the same number of timeouts.
However, at around 3 to 3:30, it's about neutral or better to wait until the 2 min warning to call time. 4 minutes to go and you shouldn't call timeouts until after the 2 min warning. This is because of the 40 second play clock and how much time can elapsed before the next play must be run.
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u/Psychological-Elk220 2d ago
Each game is different, but with the ball, you can stop the clock with a time-out or sideline throw and spike the ball. If under 2:40 seconds, I would always take the time-out on the defensive side of the 2:00 warning and save clock.
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u/xristosdomini 2d ago
Thing to remember: you have three timeouts at your disposal in each half. The two minute warning stops the clock. Ideally, you use your timeouts to preserve time on the clock. As the trailing team, your goal is to either (1) get the ball back through a turnover or (2) force a kick. If you have the ball, you're just trying to preserve time to get yourself down the field -- which means hurry-up, living on the sidelines, and spiking the ball.
The guesswork is that, if you have the ball and are trying to score to take the lead, how do you do so without leaving too much time in the clock for your opponent? As we found out with the Bills a couple years ago (13 seconds) and with the Ravens earlier this season (7 seconds), that art is much fuzzier than we have previously believed.
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u/theEWDSDS 2d ago
Before/after the 2 minute is really a risk/reward thing. If you call it before, you save more time, but then your defense has to make a stop right then and there, no room for a first down. By contrast, after is safer with down & distance but less time possible.
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u/jf_2021 2d ago
This is oversimplifying things but:
At the 2:39 mark, an offense can start draining the clock.
If you are the defense and down by a score, you want the ball with as much time as possible. As an offense, you want the clock to die as much as possible (ideally down to zeros) - or obviously score.
If you are on defense and have your 3 time outs - you have 4 clock stoppages (your tiem outs + the 2MW). Instead of letting the other team drain the clock down for over half a minute, you take a time out and try to stop them. That way, ideally, you get the ball back with over a minute left; where you can stop the clock by running out of bounds.
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u/SlicksterRick 2d ago
The differences are basically down, distance, and number of timeouts. The only other thing that could affect their strategy is making sure the offense don’t get a free pass play right before the two minute warning (since the clock is going to stop anyways)
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u/Low-Crow5719 2d ago
Timeouts can be used for purposes other than stopping the clock.
The canonical reason for calling a timeout is because something is wrong with the called play, or the formation, or the defense, or even the wrong number of players. The timeout is judged less costly than the broken play or wide-open touchdown that could result.
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u/WishboneHot8050 2d ago
That wasn't what I asked.
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u/Low-Crow5719 1d ago
Patdon me, you asked about any reason for calling timeout earlier than two minutes.
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u/Cuchers 2d ago
All things being equal you take the timeout before the 2 minute warning to give your offense more time. But if your opponent gets a first down after 2 minutes and you don’t have 3 timeouts then they can drain a lot of clock. So if there’s 2:30 on the clock and it’s like 2nd or 3rd and short and there’s a good chance the offense will get a first down after the two minute warning then you should save your timeouts until after they get the first down.