r/NFLNoobs • u/iw2050 • 3d ago
Explain the logic of firing a Head Coach after Year 1
This is something I just really don’t get, it seems more and more common now that teams will just cycle through different head coaches year to year.
Like I get the Urban Meyer situation, but beyond that, why? Like you don’t see teams moving on from a 1st round QB pick after just one year (usually it’s two or three, in some cases even four).
Like take the Texans, what did they really gain from firing both David Culley and Lovie Smith after one year stints. Or more recently the Raiders, firing McDaniels, Pierce, and Carroll one after the other. Like it’s the ownership paying these contracts, do they just not care about the money?
Like I get that some of the people I mentioned are kinda retreads, but then why hire them at all? Like if you’re a Raiders fan for instance, explain to me why all three firings made sense at the time (as opposed to just giving at least one of them one more year).
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u/schlaggedreceiver 3d ago edited 2d ago
We find out what goes into the decision eventually, but each usually falls into a few categories:
The Bad (Urban Meyer, Steve Wilks, Jerod Mayo, Pete Carroll, Frank Reich, Nathaniel Hackett) - these are usually pretty easy to identify in hindsight as “someone effed up” in the hiring process. All of these guys were a lot worse behind the scenes than just owning a single poor record.
The Interim (Wilks, Antonio Pierce, Freddie Kitchens) - these guys are generally underqualified candidates off top. The few that do remain permanent head coaches rarely get longer than a season without immediate success; the last to have a multi-year tenure was Doug Marrone with the Jags (Sacksonville era).
The Patsy (David Culley, Lovie Smith, Jim Tomsula, Chip Kelly) - Tomsula-Kelly and Culley-Smith were hired in consecutive one-year stints when their teams were overtly tanking. Whether or not they were intentionally kicking the can down the road before committing to a long term coach isn’t definitive, but all four were viewed as relatively unserious candidates.
In response to the Raiders point, while firing three coaches in three years looks like impatient ownership, each coach had legitimate grounds for firing, which is still bad, but different lol
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u/HaHaWhatAStory014 3d ago
I would say both Chip Kelly and Urban Meyer fall more under "great college coaches who are/were really just great recruiters above all else (*which was a bigger deal before the NIL deals and transfer portal were things)." Chip Kelly's "innovative, high-powered offense" was basically "have a bunch of WRs who are just lights-out faster than the other team's guys," for example.
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u/schlaggedreceiver 2d ago
I suppose you could make another category for “one-year college flops,” there just aren’t that many. Where these two differ tho is Kelly was considered a serious hire by Philly, not SanFran. Coming to SanFran fresh off that disastrous tenure made him an unserious pick, and IMO that puts him more in line with the rest of the patsies instead of the Bad’s with Urban.
You’re right on the recruiting point for both, and you could add Matt Rhule as well. I think recency would say Urban was a worse flop than Kelly because of all the drama, but I think the roster damage Kelly did to the Eagles as a faux recruiter/GM was unmatched.
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u/CromunentCucumber 3d ago
I'm actually for moving on if it's not working. How Aaron Glenn is still the Jets head coach is baffling. He's a defensive minded coach and didn't have an interception all year. They had the second worse record and are looking probably will again this year. They'll fire him in 2 instead of 1 when they already knew after 1.
Not moving on is how you get Todd Bowles, do you want Todd Bowles.
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u/iw2050 3d ago
Ah that’s right you guys also had Todd Bowles as your HC back in the day too, oof. He did have a good first season with the Bucs though (Brady’s last season), and then he fixed Baker, so he’s had a decent tenure there.
TBH though, I think Geno looks solid this year. At the end of the season I’d fire Aaron Glenn and promote Frank Reich.
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u/Evening_Answer_11 3d ago
I knew about Nathaniel Hackett 2 minutes into his debut.
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u/deantrip 3d ago
Kind of like when the Jets hired Adam Gase
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u/Splooder1 3d ago
Good coaches grow, and that’s something you can see. A lot of great coaches had a bad first season with bad midseason losing streaks, but flashes of potential developed as they tweaked the system. Macdonald was a great example of that.
If your coach starts out with a team that’s working and it gets worse, then they stick with whatever was making the team worse, just cut your ties. The coach needs a new environment for them to swallow their pride and learn from their mistakes.
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u/DeepPurpleLurker 2d ago
To build on our point, sometimes the turnaround doesn't even mean a winning streak! Dan Campbell's lions didn't start winning in the back half of his second year, but the eye test showed a team with a culture that was turning around, playing hard, and believing in itself again.
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u/HaHaWhatAStory014 3d ago
The head coach is like "the guy." They're the "manager and CEO of day-to-day operations" in a sense. They set the tone and the culture (*granted, some coaches are more "players' coaches and locker room/culture guys" than others, who are more detached "all business" types). Everything starts and stops with them. The analogy of organizations being more patient with players doesn't really hold up because of this. It is expected that players will get better with proper coaching, but if your coaches suck, well, the team's pretty much fucked then.
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u/OrangMan14 3d ago
Maybe the coach got indicted on federal trafficking charges and is in prison? Idk I'm sure there are circumstances that merit it.
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u/Partytime79 3d ago
Sunk cost fallacy. GM’s/owners usually expect improvement in areas of the team even if wins aren’t immediately forthcoming. If improvement isn’t happening then cut bait and try again.
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u/frostyflakes1 3d ago
The Urban Meyer situation was a hell of an anomaly. But also, sometimes it doesn't take a team multiple seasons to see that the head coach they hired is a poor fit.
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u/forthebirds123 3d ago
A lot of times it’s from a standpoint of them losing the locker room and respect from the players. Once that’s gone you can’t get it back.
Face it, almost all nfl head coaches know ball pretty well. There’s usually something else that would lead to a firing after one year. And most would probably be a bad relationship with the GM or owner or whoever is in charge of hiring.
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u/Ryan1869 3d ago
Usually it’s just a total shit show like Meyer in Jacksonville or Hackett in Denver. Otherwise it’s really hard to get fired after a single season. I think Houston was pissed at Lovie because he won a game late and cost them the #1 pick. Pete was brought into Vegas to be that steady hand that could maybe punch above their talent for a couple years while they rebuild, that didn’t happen.
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u/goosereddit 3d ago
Ironically the Seahawks fired Jim Mora Jr after 1 year so they could get Pete Carroll.
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u/RU_Gremlin 2d ago
Carroll got fired after one year and now the team looks competent. The head coach is responsible for so much more than any individual player. Did the team play hard or did they start giving up? Did more players than normal start getting in trouble? Did players (or their agents) tell you they wouldn't come play for a particular coach? Did you want to get your new franchise QB and his play style doesn't match with your current philosophy? Is the play calling/decision making good?
Also, head coaches are cheaper and easier to replace than star players
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u/liteshadow4 2d ago
Some coaches just don’t have it and it’s obvious. Even a bad team should show fight.
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u/Rosemoorstreet 2d ago
One of the biggest mistakes sports fans make is thinking that performance is the only reason coaches are fired or players are traded. Most of the time that is the case, but like in every other type of organization there are things going on that we don’t see and are never made aware of. Personality conflicts are often the main reason. Take a guy like Bobby Bonds. He had very good production but was traded almost every year. As a teen I couldn’t understand that. Then it hit me…he was a problem in the clubhouse. And that came out after his career was over. We just need to understand there is always more than meets the eye.
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u/alfreadadams 3d ago
If you know after a year that they aren't the best option moving forwards why should you hold on to them?