We often hear the media telling us how bad the economy & inflation are, but is that actually true?

[u/Stockjock1]

Actually, no, it’s not true. The numbers tell a very different story.

Stripping out volatile energy prices shows underlying core inflation is down to 2.4%—essentially back to normal baseline levels.

Headline inflation, including food and energy, is at 3.4% annualized, but much of that is driven by recent energy price swings tied in large part to geopolitical conflicts, as well as domestic refinery shutdowns resulting in the loss of 1,700,000 barrels per day since 2020. Let us not forget that post-pandemic inflation previously peaked above 9% annualized, under the Biden administration, with far less media hand-wringing then versus now.

Add in solid GDP growth around 2.2% to 2.3% and an unemployment rate remaining historically low at roughly 4.2%, and the U.S. economy is performing remarkably well.

Bad news sells clicks (and votes), but the actual fundamental data shows a resilient, expanding economy.

The economy is strong, core inflation is low, and unemployment is low. All indicative of a healthy, expanding economy.

[u/nithrean]

BS - I go grocery shopping. Don't magic number stuff and talk about things. I see the difference every week when I check out. I see the difference in prices going up all over the place in practically every sector of life.

I get it. I am not trying to say everything is bad about the country or economy, but trying to pretend like we live under rocks in econ seminars does no one any good. Prices are way up on a bunch of every day stuff. I am not going to believe people who try to tell me not to watch my credit card bill.

[u/According-Activity87]

The pandemic shouldn't be used as a benchmark, those were extraordinary circumstances, and cherry picking out a core indicator to sure up an argument is disingenuous. This economy is hot garbage with little relief in sight. The economy is growing, but for who? Increasing prices on energy and electronics will continue to burden average consumers. I'm sure GDP will soar as ExxonMobil and Micron post astronomical profits, but the majority of US won't reap the rewards. Based on historical data, the midterms will be a bloodbath.

[u/Stockjock1 → u/According-Activity87]

The economy is strong and robust. Unemployment levels are low, core inflation is low, our stock market is at all-time record highs.

I think it’s fair to point out that people were not too upset at 9% inflation under Joe Biden, but they are freaking out about relatively strong economic numbers under Trump, including a temporary increase in energy prices. Yes, there is are reasons for both, but there is nothing wrong with pointing out that the media is flipping out over Trump’s numbers, and they were not flipping out over Biden’s numbers, which were much worse.

The economy is solid, it is absolutely not any kind of a mess. I think most of us would like to see energy prices a bit lower, and hopefully that will happen soon.

Let me also add that, post World War II, the party of the sitting president loses, at least the house or Senate between 60% and 70% of the time. So given the fact that Trump is a polarizing figure to begin with, it would not be even slightly surprising if he loses the House. It would be surprising if he lose the Senate, I don’t personally think that will happen, but it’s possible.

[u/Super_Mario_Luigi]

Americans have the most discretionary income in the world. It's crazy to pretend we're in the Great depression when you take two steps out into the public and see everyone spending like crazy.

What many people got was lifestyle creep. Low interest rates and high salaries got too many people expecting unsustainable markets.

[u/Stockjock1 → u/Super_Mario_Luigi]

There are a number of videos on YouTube that address the fact that many, even from western countries, are shocked at the type of money that Americans have. So we’re going to sit here and pretend like things are economically so horrible, and we are in a depression, it is absolutely ludicrous, and the numbers certainly don’t back that up

Will we have a recession someday? Of course we will, it is a normal part of the economic cycle, regardless of which political powers/parties are in charge.

[u/ExcitingResponse1864 → u/Stockjock1]

A lot of the time I see people with the hat out anymore, it's because they desperately overextended themselves. For every GoFundMe or ask for help for a medical or other emergency bill, I see 10 more that are: "I can't cover my bills this month" and they almost always blame capitalism but you look at their Facebook or Insta history, they just dropped a large sum of money on a trip or large purchase. 

[u/Stockjock1]

For those who doubt the data, here are recent supporting numbers...

If you want to review the raw government data backing these numbers, check the official releases directly from the reporting agencies.

You can verify the 2.4% core inflation and 3.4% headline figures through the BLS Consumer Price Index News Release at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm.

For the 2.2% growth rate, review the BEA Gross Domestic Product Release at https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

To confirm the 4.2% unemployment data, look at the BLS Employment Situation Summary at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm.

[u/Stockjock1 → u/Stockjock1]

You gotta love the downvotes for linking to the numbers that back up my claims, directly from the government. Unbelievable. Ignorance is bliss.

[u/ExcitingResponse1864 → u/Stockjock1]

Because it contravene the narrative that everything that's going wrong in people's lives right now is the fault of capitalism. 

[u/Stockjock1 → u/ExcitingResponse1864]

Some of these folks aren't the sharpest. I make my case, back it with audited statistics and data, and somehow that's funny.

[u/Hectoriu]

I guess it just depends on where you live. I'm paying less for groceries and gas then I did during the last administration.

[u/MakeGodGreatAgain]

My portfolio is looking fantastic this year. Only people complaining are the ones who want handouts.