A New Offense, But Who’s Available?

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Game Information

• Matchup: Virginia Tech Hokies (4-1, 1-1 ACC) @ California Golden Bears (2-3, 1-1 ACC)
• Date & Time: Saturday, October 10 | 12:30 PM PT
• Location: California Memorial Stadium | Berkeley, CA
• TV: ACC Network
• Theme: Homecoming

Cal returns to Berkeley after back-to-back losses, but there was at least one potentially significant development in last week's 39-31 loss at UNLV.

Tosh Lupoi changed offensive play callers at halftime, handing the job from Jordan Somerville to Pat McCann. Cal responded by scoring 24 points in the second half and briefly taking the lead.

Now McCann gets a full week to run the offense.

The catch? We still don't know exactly who he'll have available.

1. A New Play Caller — But Who Will Be Playing Quarterback?

This is the biggest storyline today.

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele remains questionable after suffering a concussion against UNLV. If JKS clears protocol, he should return to the starting role. If not, Jackson Brousseau will get the start. They are both warming up and it will be a game-time decision.

And based on what we saw last week, Cal should at least feel better about that possibility.

Brousseau came in cold and completed 19 of 32 passes for 200 yards and two touchdowns, helping Cal erase a 24-7 deficit and briefly take a fourth-quarter lead.

That also happened after McCann took over the play calling.

So today gives us our first real look at what the offense might look like with McCann running it from the opening drive rather than making adjustments at halftime.

I'm interested in whether we see better sequencing, more intermediate throws, more attempts to create explosive plays and a continued effort to utilize the quarterback's strengths rather than relying so heavily on short perimeter concepts.

Whoever plays QB will face a difficult matchup. Virginia Tech has 18 sacks already and one of the more disruptive defenses Cal has faced, putting even more pressure on an offensive line that has struggled with protection.

2. Cal Is Seriously Banged Up

The injuries go well beyond quarterback.

Adam Mohammed, Cal's leading rusher, has been downgraded to doubtful after missing the UNLV game. Carter Vargas is already out, meaning Ashten Emory will likely handle much of the work at running back again.

There's better news at receiver: Chase Hendricks, Cal's leader in receptions, has been upgraded to probable.

The defensive injuries may be just as important.

Kingston Lopa remains questionable after leaving the UNLV game on the first defensive snap. Lopa has five interceptions already and has arguably been Cal's most impactful defensive player this season.

Kamar Mothudi is also questionable, while Aiden Manutai appears likely to return.

Virginia Tech isn't healthy either. The Hokies are missing multiple contributors, including several offensive linemen, which could give Cal's defensive front an opportunity to generate pressure.

Depth may end up playing a much larger role today than we would have expected a couple of weeks ago.

3. Can Cal Stop Beating Itself?

This has become the bigger season-long question.

Cal actually outgained UNLV 464-345 last week.

The Bears threw for 395 yards. They rallied from 17 points down. They took the lead in the fourth quarter.

And they still lost.

The biggest reason was self-inflicted damage: Cal finished with 16 penalties for 152 yards.

That follows the Clemson loss, where special-teams mistakes and inconsistent offensive execution repeatedly made life harder for a defense that kept Cal competitive for much of the game.

At some point, these stop being isolated mistakes and become part of the identity of the team.

Virginia Tech presents a good test because the Hokies are talented enough to punish those mistakes.

Quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer has been highly productive and threw for 434 yards last week against Pitt. Virginia Tech still lost that game after committing four turnovers, so both teams come into Berkeley probably feeling like they gave away very winnable games last weekend.

For the Bettors: What Does the Market Expect?

As of this morning, the market has Virginia Tech favored by roughly 10 points, with the total around 53.5.

• Spread: Virginia Tech -10
• O/U: 53.5
• Moneyline: Virginia Tech roughly -365 / Cal +300
• Market-implied score: roughly Virginia Tech 32, Cal 22
• Market-implied win probability: approximately 76% Virginia Tech / 24% Cal
• My baseline: Virginia Tech 31, Cal 23

I think the interesting part is how wide the range of possible outcomes is depending on the game script.

Virginia Tech Controls the Game — VT 34, Cal 20

This is probably the clearest path to Virginia Tech covering.

The Hokies' pass rush overwhelms Cal's protection, the Bears struggle to run the ball without Mohammed, and Grunkemeyer takes advantage of a potentially depleted Cal secondary.

Add another round of penalties or special-teams mistakes and Virginia Tech could gradually turn a competitive game into a comfortable win.

Cal Keeps It Close — VT 27, Cal 23

This may be the most interesting alternative.

McCann's offense doesn't need to suddenly become explosive. Cal just needs to sustain drives, protect the football and avoid putting its defense in terrible situations.

If the Bears play a cleaner game and the defense keeps Virginia Tech from generating explosive plays, Cal +10 gives the Bears a fairly large margin to work with even if they don't win outright.

Cal Pulls the Upset — Cal 28, Virginia Tech 27

For the upset to happen, I think several things probably need to go right.

Cal needs to create turnovers, McCann's offense needs to look materially better than what we saw earlier in the season, and the Bears can't give away points through penalties or special teams.

Virginia Tech showed last week that it can turn the ball over — the Hokies gave it away four times against Pitt.

If Cal can steal a couple of possessions and turn those mistakes into touchdowns, the game gets very interesting.

The Wild Card: A Shootout

There's also a plausible 38-31 type game.

Grunkemeyer has shown he can generate a lot of passing offense, while Cal just threw for 395 yards at UNLV and scored 24 second-half points once McCann took over.

If the offensive change is real and Cal's defensive injuries are significant, the current total isn't especially high.

On the other hand, we've also watched Cal score 10 against Clemson and 21 against Syracuse, so there's still a very real scenario where Virginia Tech's pressure shuts down the offense and the game stays under.

For me, that uncertainty is what makes today's game particularly interesting from a betting perspective.

What Does Cal Look Like Now?

That's really what I'm watching.

The Bears are 2-3 and have lost two straight, but the second half against UNLV provided at least a glimpse of something different offensively.

Now we get to see whether it was a one-half spark or the beginning of an actual adjustment.

Does McCann's offense look different with a full week to prepare?

Can Brousseau keep the offense moving if JKS can't go?

Can Cal survive without Mohammed and potentially Lopa?

And can the Bears finally play a clean game without penalties, special-teams mistakes and other self-inflicted problems making an already difficult matchup even harder?

We're getting to the point in the season where improvement needs to become visible.

Roll On You Bears. 🐻